Game is $2-$100 spread. Villain has $300, Hero covers.

Villain is a competent regular. Buys in for the max, rarely limps, can make good lay downs, and has made some good bluffs.

Hand:
CO open-limps, Hero raises to $12 on Button with QcJc. The Villain in the BB and the Limper call.

Flop: AdJc7d (pot: $36)

They both check. This is very good for my range, and I might have the best of it, so I bet on the big side ($20) to try to take it now, or at least make the draws pay. BB calls. Limper folds.

Turn: AdJc7d 3s (Pot: $76)

BB checks. His range is, I assume, top pair or big draws, or the occasional monster he’s trapping. I decide to do something different though: I bet $30. I’m mostly betting as a Block: I don’t want to face a huge bet on the River, so I’m hoping this freezes the action so the River can go check check *if he has an Ace*. And if he’s on a draw, I want to make him pay again.

So I’m betting this planning to check behind on every river (except a Q or J). Using a Bet-Bet-Check line instead of Bet-Check-Call, essentially.

He calls.

River: AdJc7d 3s Th (Pot: $136)

I’m all set to execute my brilliant check-back plan, until…..

BB leads out for $50. ****!

Hero?

Bet, check, fold

Or

Check, bet or call, check or fold



one of those two lines the majority of the time, especially multiway, to realize higher EV

There is only one Jc in the deck .. it can't be in your hand and on the Board, that may change things a bit, not sure.

1) Would V ever bluff for such a small amount? What bluffs does he have here?
2) Based on history, what does V value bet for this sizing?
3) 20 into 36 is not 'big', it's barely over 50% .. what is the standard cbet sizing in your game?

4) 30 into 76 is, yes, small and suggests a weak hand. The 3s provides zero more draws so you either have Jx, a pair under Ax (probably under Jx) or air. Why can't you have an Ace here and continue to bet that 'story'? What is your image with the V and your current betting line?
5) You're losing to KJ but this also looks so much like a weak 2-pair or Ax. It's a 'call me' bet when you're getting almost 4 to 1. (20% EV=0)
6) What is your image on the River? Only call with the goods or are you a 'curious' caller?

My guess is that he knows you're weak and Rivered JT or had a weak Ace (or KJ) himself and just wanted to get to Showdown. I would assume he's just normally c/c with A6 but your Turn bet really opened up the door for V River action and he went for a small blocker bet himself.

My assumption is that you never raise here with two pair, only sets (maybe) and straights. If he knows this then he can set his own price for thin value and/or lose the min. GL

I'd be surprised if he wouldn't raise the turn with 2 pair+.

His $50 river bet looks like a rivered two pair (AT/JT) that he doesn't want getting checked back or else a weak ace trying to block bet and set a reasonable price for showdown. I don't think we're good 1 out of 4 times here. Fold.

RESULT: I called because I can’t fold because I’m ****ing terrible, and Villain flipped over the expected ATo for two-pair.

I suspect “the solver” wouldn’t hate my call, since I don’t have any diamonds in my hand and am blocking KQ and JT, but it’s like….Literally every time I’ve called in this spot at LLSNL I’ve been wrong, it’s NEVER a bluff, but I still never learn my lesson. Stubborn and stupid, a dangerous combo!

If a guy donks on the river in a weird spot and you have middle pair it should be a snap fold. It is never a bluff at $1/2 unless the guy is clueless and 18-25 years old around 1am