I'd like help analyzing this line I took.

Warning: wall of text incoming. Skip to the bottom for the relevant bit.

1/3 NL

Hero has the effective stack at ~$600. Hero has Qc7c

UTG folds
UTG+1 opens $10
UTG+2 calls $10
LJ folds
HJ folds
CO calls $10
BTN folds
SB (Hero) calls $9 more
BB calls $7 more

Flop ($50):
Qs 5s 9s
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets $30, UTG+2 folds, CO folds, Hero calls $30, BB folds.

Turn ($110):
Qs 5s 9s 5d
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $60, Hero calls $60

River ($230):
Qs 5s 9s 5d Qh
Hero bets $30, UTG+1 raises $100, Hero calls


tldr; UTG+1 has a wide range, and my reasoning/thoughts at each street.

UTG+1 has shown themselves be a somewhat loose player, getting involved in many pots over the last several hours we've been playing, however, if action starts heating up in a pot that they appear to have missed, I've seen them quickly fold, so my impression was that this player was not a calling station or a nit, just someone that liked to splash around preflop to try and hit something on the flop. I'd estimate that this person was opening ~40% of hands. None of the players that called are particularly active, and I don't expect to see any 3betting from them unless they hold a strong hand (QQ+).

Preflop, once the UTG+2 and CO players call, I think that calling while holding Q7s is fairly standard if I'm just looking to see a flop at a good price. I plan to fold to any further action, although as I stated above, I didn't really expect anything to happen since the other players were passive.

OTF, we flop TPBK, and I think I have a clear check. Multi-way, this isn't something I want to start piling money in with. So I check, BB checks, and then UTG+1 bets $30. He's previously shown a willingness to stab OOP in pots multi-way, although on a monotone board that should be more favorable to the cold calling ranges instead of his, I'd expect him to check, so this bet seems a bit strong to me. As it is, with the UTG+2 and CO folding, and with top pair here up against a wide range, I think calling is fine - if the BB comes along for the ride things get tricky, but I figured I could just fold to a raise. and get out without losing much more money.

OTT, the board pairs, which doesn't concern me too much since I don't expect the UTG+1 to have many 5's in their range. When they bet $60 into a pot of $110, I suddenly feel like I'm being value bet by a flush, a pair with a strong flush draw (AsQx/KsQx/QxJs/QxTs or As9x/Ks9x/Js9x/Ts9x), two pair (Qx9y) or a set (5x) with the very rare full house (9's full of 5's, Q's full of 5's). The villain could also be bluffing, as they have shown themselves capable of doing, but usually I'd expect to see a more polarized bet when bluffing, so this 1/2 pot bet (which is exactly twice as large as the previous bet) has me highly suspicious. However, I the hands I was behind and the hands I was ahead of OTF haven't changed, except that I now chop with all Q2-Q8 (except Q5), so I think calling here is also standard - villain could be bluffing and just chose to use a cheaper price this time, especially since my call OTF probably looks decently strong (I'd actually give myself a similar range to the one I listed for the villain above).

OTR, the Q pairs and we have the third nuts (losing only to 55 and Q9). Now, my plan switches gears from caution to extracting value. I think with a monotone flop and board that runs out as the way it did and the way I acted, I need to be donking here to maximize my value extraction - I don't expect a flush, even the nut flush, to bet at this board since it now looks like I probably have a full house, so checking back here doesn't get me value from that. It's also possible (although unlikely) for a 5 to check back the river, since line I took screams that it's very likely that I have a Q. The only hand that will bet at this board with 100% frequency is another Q, which the villain is now incredibly unlikely to have.

I think that throwing out a fake blocker bet maximizes my value in this situation - the weak bet has a good chance of being called by a flush, being called by a 5, being raised by a 5 or being raised by a Q, while folding out everything else (which probably wouldn't have tried bluffing at this board anyway). So I bet $30 (reflecting back on this, this is obviously much too small, I think I should've raised to $40-$60) and then the villain raises to $100. With such a small raise IP, I think the villain either has 55/99/Q9/Qx/5x. I don't think this is a line a flush takes, and this weak raise doesn't seem like a bluff. I'd expect a small raise from any of the listed value hands, maybe a bit larger than $100 but the small raise isn't unexpected.

There's a few things I can do - I can raise small (to $170-$230), to try and extract value from a 5, go all-in and hope on the off chance that the villain calls (unlikely), or call, since I rarely expect to get action even for a small 3bet and this way I can protect my range against 55 or Q9. Raising small would leave me with ~$300 behind in a pot of ~$500, which isn't much, so I don't see a huge difference between raising small and going all-in.


Relevant bit:
I decide to call OTR, and my reasoning is that because I don't expect 5x to call my re-raise with a high enough frequency, my re-raise will only almost always only get action from other Q's, which I'm chopping with anyway, or Q9/55, which I lose to. I think that the difference between re-raising here and calling is probably pretty slim, but what do others think?
I'd also like to hear what people think about using the blocker bet to try to squeeze out some more value on this board runout. Should I be checking the river instead? Should I donk much much larger? Thanks!

Jesus, fold pre, fold flop, fold turn, whatever river

FFS this

One bible's worth of analysis for a spot that should never happen.

+2

I suggest doing some reading on the difference between absolute hand strength and relative hand strength.

Preflop is not standard and you’re not getting a good price here OOP against 3-4 players. Even BB would be standard to fold.

There are a lot of contradictions in your post. First you say you feel villain’s bet on a board that’s not great for him seems strong and then you persuade yourself to call. Then you do the same thing on the turn. On the turn you acknowledge that villain should have very little 5x in his range but on river you want to get value from 5x with a 3-bet? How much 5x raise pre and bet flop into 4 other players for this sizing?

Flop is just a fold in general because your hand is already behind most of the value range and the hands it’s ahead of have considerable equity. When you’re behind you have 0-2 outs. It’s easy to get bluffed off our hand on later streets or continue to pay off value bets. You’re also not closing action and the frequency BB might raise or call with a hand that has you in bad shape is not insignificant.

Turn is a fold for most of the same reasons. This hand is worse that all your other bluffcatching candidates because they all had more equity on the flop and this hand shouldn’t have continued. Hoping to chop with Qx is optimistic as even if those raise pre they would likely find a check on flop or turn.

Your river donk sizing is too small. Just call the raise.

Before he does that, he needs to understand pre-flop ranges.

Qc7c is not even close to "standard". 95%+ of folks here would say fold pre.

River is a clear call. Raising just causes us to lose more when beat

I fold preflop. Yeah we're getting awesome immediate odds almost closing the action to a lol raise size, but we're going to be playing the rest of the hand OOP and our hand sucks. Overall I believe our RIO are much worse than our IO, so all we're really doing is getting a great invite into a spot where we'll likely lose money postflop.

I check/fold the flop. I didn't play this hand eleventeen ways to flop TPnokickernodraw on a board I could already be drawing dead on facing an EP bet into the world.

I don't get to the turn, with pretty much same thinking as the flop (not quite as bad since now HU but still very meh).

As played, the river should be a check, imo. It seems to me the only reason we're calling the early streets is because we think we're ahead of a barrelling draw (and if that ain't the case then how the heck did we get to the river), so donking makes no sense. Just check and hope he barrels his busted As one more time. As played, I'm also just calling the raise and hoping to chop; re-raising makes no sense as he ain't paying off with worse at this point so we just get reraised by 55.

Ghateseverystreet,tbhG

Preflop: pretty bad. Yes you’re the 3rd caller, which is better than calling first in, but the only way calling this hand is +EV is because you’re in an exclusive home game or live stream that you’ll never be invited back to if you’re a huge nit.

Fold turn. Monotone flop, and the PFR has now bet twice. Best case scenario is you’re against like AsJ and that still has 23% against you. Most of the time you’re drawing slim. As others have pointed out, given this range, we maybe should even fold flop. But where flop is defensible, turn is lighting $ on fire.

I agree with donking the board changing river. Sizing is wicked bad, though. You should be betting big to represent a monster or the bricked As. This sizing would never work as a bluff if you had the latter. You need to face him with a healthy 3/4ths PSB, give yourself a chance to bluff sometimes, and get more value when ahead.

And clear just call when he raises, even against your small sizing. He’s not raising and calling a 3 bet with a worse hand.


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Everyone says fold pre-flop, but my guess is most haven't played in very loose, very passive games where 5-8 people see almost every flop...I play almost only in home games (social, no-rake), and that is the norm.

So calling a suited "computer hand" is a pretty common call, especially nearly closing the action...we came to gamble, not to fold!!!

On the flop, you hit top pair...virtually no one folds TP in HE for a single bet basically closing the action. I've never seen a home player do it unless it's a huge bet, or they're super nitty...and even then...

On the turn...well now we have two pair, but if probably have kicker problems at best. What used to be called a "calling station" is now "sticky"...I guess the difference is awareness, but the end result is the same.

On the river, unless you're playing against a moron, you're either chopping or losing.

It's not how I would play it, but I've seen a zillion hands play out exactly like this at my home games...and as weird as it may sound, often times the villian will show up with a 5 or over pair here...and still call a three bet river!

Just because something is common for fish to do doesn't mean it's ok for us to do it. Pre is bad and flop is worse. If you play the same way everyone else does you'll just lose like they do. Flop is just a trivial fold honestly.

If you want to give action with janky hands at least play in position and don't be a calling station postflop.

Correct. It reminds me of many a 1/2 player on the peak of Mt Stupid in a Dunning-Kruger graph of perceived vs actual competence. They’ll say everyone is terrible and that they are totally winning. They can’t explain what they’re doing differently to the big fish. They still cold call 97o facing an open and a cold call from the small blind. They still Donk flops in situations where you shouldn’t have a donking range. They still miss value.

The difference between people who actually move up and win and stay in 1/2 breaking even or slight losing forever is that guys who move up actually recognize that they need to be doing things differently than the population. If you play like the average player in a game, you lose.


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