Originally Posted by teeeerc
I'd like help analyzing this line I took.
Warning: wall of text incoming. Skip to the bottom for the relevant bit.
1/3 NL
Hero has the effective stack at ~$600. Hero has Qc7c
UTG folds
UTG+1 opens $10
UTG+2 calls $10
LJ folds
HJ folds
CO calls $10
BTN folds
SB (Hero) calls $9 more
BB calls $7 more
Flop ($50):
Qs 5s 9s
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets $30, UTG+2 folds, CO folds, Hero calls $30, BB folds.
Turn ($110):
Qs 5s 9s 5d
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $60, Hero calls $60
River ($230):
Qs 5s 9s 5d Qh
Hero bets $30, UTG+1 raises $100, Hero calls
tldr; UTG+1 has a wide range, and my reasoning/thoughts at each street.
UTG+1 has shown themselves be a somewhat loose player, getting involved in many pots over the last several hours we've been playing, however, if action starts heating up in a pot that they appear to have missed, I've seen them quickly fold, so my impression was that this player was not a calling station or a nit, just someone that liked to splash around preflop to try and hit something on the flop. I'd estimate that this person was opening ~40% of hands. None of the players that called are particularly active, and I don't expect to see any 3betting from them unless they hold a strong hand (QQ+).
Preflop, once the UTG+2 and CO players call, I think that calling while holding Q7s is fairly standard if I'm just looking to see a flop at a good price. I plan to fold to any further action, although as I stated above, I didn't really expect anything to happen since the other players were passive.
OTF, we flop TPBK, and I think I have a clear check. Multi-way, this isn't something I want to start piling money in with. So I check, BB checks, and then UTG+1 bets $30. He's previously shown a willingness to stab OOP in pots multi-way, although on a monotone board that should be more favorable to the cold calling ranges instead of his, I'd expect him to check, so this bet seems a bit strong to me. As it is, with the UTG+2 and CO folding, and with top pair here up against a wide range, I think calling is fine - if the BB comes along for the ride things get tricky, but I figured I could just fold to a raise. and get out without losing much more money.
OTT, the board pairs, which doesn't concern me too much since I don't expect the UTG+1 to have many 5's in their range. When they bet $60 into a pot of $110, I suddenly feel like I'm being value bet by a flush, a pair with a strong flush draw (AsQx/KsQx/QxJs/QxTs or As9x/Ks9x/Js9x/Ts9x), two pair (Qx9y) or a set (5x) with the very rare full house (9's full of 5's, Q's full of 5's). The villain could also be bluffing, as they have shown themselves capable of doing, but usually I'd expect to see a more polarized bet when bluffing, so this 1/2 pot bet (which is exactly twice as large as the previous bet) has me highly suspicious. However, I the hands I was behind and the hands I was ahead of OTF haven't changed, except that I now chop with all Q2-Q8 (except Q5), so I think calling here is also standard - villain could be bluffing and just chose to use a cheaper price this time, especially since my call OTF probably looks decently strong (I'd actually give myself a similar range to the one I listed for the villain above).
OTR, the Q pairs and we have the third nuts (losing only to 55 and Q9). Now, my plan switches gears from caution to extracting value. I think with a monotone flop and board that runs out as the way it did and the way I acted, I need to be donking here to maximize my value extraction - I don't expect a flush, even the nut flush, to bet at this board since it now looks like I probably have a full house, so checking back here doesn't get me value from that. It's also possible (although unlikely) for a 5 to check back the river, since line I took screams that it's very likely that I have a Q. The only hand that will bet at this board with 100% frequency is another Q, which the villain is now incredibly unlikely to have.
I think that throwing out a fake blocker bet maximizes my value in this situation - the weak bet has a good chance of being called by a flush, being called by a 5, being raised by a 5 or being raised by a Q, while folding out everything else (which probably wouldn't have tried bluffing at this board anyway). So I bet $30 (reflecting back on this, this is obviously much too small, I think I should've raised to $40-$60) and then the villain raises to $100. With such a small raise IP, I think the villain either has 55/99/Q9/Qx/5x. I don't think this is a line a flush takes, and this weak raise doesn't seem like a bluff. I'd expect a small raise from any of the listed value hands, maybe a bit larger than $100 but the small raise isn't unexpected.
There's a few things I can do - I can raise small (to $170-$230), to try and extract value from a 5, go all-in and hope on the off chance that the villain calls (unlikely), or call, since I rarely expect to get action even for a small 3bet and this way I can protect my range against 55 or Q9. Raising small would leave me with ~$300 behind in a pot of ~$500, which isn't much, so I don't see a huge difference between raising small and going all-in.
Relevant bit:
I decide to call OTR, and my reasoning is that because I don't expect 5x to call my re-raise with a high enough frequency, my re-raise will only almost always only get action from other Q's, which I'm chopping with anyway, or Q9/55, which I lose to. I think that the difference between re-raising here and calling is probably pretty slim, but what do others think?
I'd also like to hear what people think about using the blocker bet to try to squeeze out some more value on this board runout. Should I be checking the river instead? Should I donk much much larger? Thanks!