Loose passive 1/2 live game. I've played the game before, but I'm 4-5 hands in and the villain is a new guy, late-20s = No read.

Hero ($200) UTG+1
Villain ($160) HJ

Hero picks up AQ, raises to $10. Villain calls.

Pot=$23
Flop: 7 6 3r

Hero C-Bets $15, villain flats pretty quickly. Hero puts villain's range at any pair, 88-1010, maybe JJ, 89, 45, 2 pairs/sets. I feel I'm bluff c-betting, but a good chance with the best hand.

Pot=$53
Turn: Q (still rainbow)

Hero V-Bets $42, villain takes about 20 seconds and flats. Now Hero is getting more concerned with 45, 2 pairs, or sets. But A7, K7, and 88-JJ also are possible. Honestly, in this game 89, and 6x and 3x are probably possible too

Pot=$137
River: 10

Villain has $93 behind. Hero?

Thoughts on all streets?

Thank you.

I like check/call the river to give villain a chance to bluff. I think his range is mostly draws and river is pretty good blank, and a good spot for average 1/2 villain to bluff.

Villain almost always checks behind A7. Villain rarely has 10 7 here, but if he is confident enough to call with it pre, than he is most likely shoving with it here on the river. 1010 gets there and shoves. Villain rarely has AK, but if he does, maybe 30% of the time he turns it into a bluff/shove. 88, 99, JJ usually checks behind. KQ, QJ may bet here, but probably checks behind the majority of the time.

If he shoves the river, I would say he has it more often that not. You're getting about 2.5/1 on your money. Is he bluff/shoving at least once out every 2.5 times he does this? I think it is fairly close, but probably a fold. I am definitely calling any bet less than a shove.

check/call river, i think he bets most of his missed draws, ull lose value when he does have a random pair that he might of called a river value bet but I think more often then not inducing a river bluff is probably the best, if he is slow playing a straight or set i think your getting it in anyway and thers no way around it

763r isn't exactly a draw heavy board, really the only draw he can have that makes it this far is 89 sometimes, and all lesser value hands than ours are going to c/back the river when we have raised UTG+1 and barrelled 2 streets. Other hands like pair+draw are not going to turn themselves into bluffs very often. I would only check this river if I was concerned with villain slow-playing and was going to c/fold.

I think if he was slow-playing, it would be on the flop to raise the turn. This screams a one-pair hand like A7, 88-JJ or a pair+draw hand. The 10 changes nothing unless he has exactly 1010. I think this is a great spot to shove and have him "put you on AK"; and get called often by his non-air range.

I think he checks back the river with air a lot anyways; the way we played this hand is crucial for our image (what we're opening with, that we're cbetting ace-high, that we're barrelling when we hit the turn). The occasional time he insta-mucks an airball isn't necessarily -EV because spots in the future are going to come up when having our range concealed will be profitable.

Thanks for the replies. Looking back on it, check/calling would have been the right play, I agree.

Instead, I shoved thinking he would call with A7, K7 -- which I put him on. Thinking about it now, by shoving I make it very hard for him to call with 88, 99, even a paired 6 -- which is bad.

As it played, he snapped and has a set of 6s. I said nice hand and that was it.

2 follow up questions:

1. If I did check the river and he shoved, would you call? I think I still would have to.
2.And now knowing the strength of his hand, is there anything I could have done different to avoid this spot?

Thanks.

I wouldn't have made such a big bet on the turn it's not really draw heavy, and I don't want to play for stacks woth TPTK at 80bb with no reads. I would have checked the river and probably called a smaller bet and folded to a shove.

Check calling here is horrendous.

As canoodles points out, he has virtually no hands that bluff this river. What draws????????
You really think the player pool at 1/2 is full of players turning their hands into bluff on this river or going for thin value????????????????????

I shove for value.

I agree with quesuerte, I don't see the point to check-calling here at all. The one draw got there, and he is going to check behind pretty much everything one-pairish that we beat. That villain took 20 seconds and then flatted on this board is a pretty huge strength tell. I would be scared ****less and probably check/fold this river to anything but a ridiculously small bet from villain.

In my mind, the bad play was on the turn. Playing for stacks with TP against a villain you have no reads on is rarely a good idea. I know people like to think that the villains have no brains and will stack off with 3rd pair, but if he has a bit of sense he knows that when you bet the turn, the minimum hand you have to have is a pair of queens. 1/2 players rarely double barrel with air. Nor do they barrel if an over card comes on the board.

I'd check behind on the turn to open up his range and try to suck one more bet out of him on the river. If he can beat TP, he'll shove over and you can fold.

This. I would be playing for two streets of value here. Betting the turn with TPTK and these stacks puts you in an ugly spot on the river. You have a relatively small hand on the turn, so keep the pot small.

I guess this is where I tend to disagree. In this 1/2 loose passive game, TPTK on a Q763r board seems like a relatively strong hand, so I was betting for value. You disagree?

I like your bet sizing preflop and flop.

Your turn bet is big. It is telling draws and one pair hands to go away. What do you read into the delay in calling on the turn? Timing tells are pretty big in games like this. Without a specific read I don't think the delay is "hmmmm. Should I stack off with one pair here against an EP raiser I have never played with before?"

I play in games similar to this alot. In your OP you talk about how loose/passive the play can be, but then admit you do not know your customer.

Side note: call me too tight but I don't think the EV of hands like AQo in EP at full ring 1/2NL is very good. Especially if you dump 80bb on a hand like this one.

I would definitely be on board with this line, if we were in position. Unfortunately, we're OOP here. Do we take a check/call line on the turn/river, hoping the villain bets fairly small thinking we are weak and won't pay off large bets?

GthemoreIplay,themoreIhatebeingOOPG

We might be. However, we got called for a decent sized bet on the flop on a non-drawy board by an unknown. An overcard then hits - exactly what hand do we think is calling us here that we beat? At this point, our hand looks like an overpair of TPTK when we make a bet of that size.
By betting, I think we move off many of the hands we beat, and only keep in those that have us in trouble. If we check, we keep in the 88/99/A7 type of hands that are way behind us, and then tempt them to pay off on the river.

Good points, thanks. I hadn't played with this villain before, but yes, he's at this game so chances are he's a typical villain.

I'm interested in timing tells you've seen...can you please elaborate?

bet $50

Excellent, thanks.