Effective 350BB

Straddled pot
I open to 6.5bb with 9h9d from UTG+ 1

HJ and Button flat. Straddler also calls (pot 27 BB)

Flop KcJs9c

Straddler checks, I bet 12BB
Button calls, straddler makes it 45BB.
I flat, Button folds (Pot 129 BB)

Turn As

Villain bets 180BB

Been playing on the same table for around 3 hours prior to this hand. Villain has been playing pretty solid. Nothing out of line so far.

Thoughts?

I dont like this at all, and i may very well consider folding on the turn. Considering this line 300+BB deep from a non crazy playerprofile, his range is heavily weighted towards Q10.

The thing is, if we fold here, we're nearly folding our entire range, and could quickly become exploited by opponent taking this line with any two cards.
Also,
IF villain is semi bluffing with even 4 combos of 8Ts... Were breaking even on odds to call and folding to that range (QTs,8Ts)or more quickly becomes -ev.
Again, thoughts?

Sure,we could get exploited. But that is in theory,in practice though-very few villains will and even less is capable of doing that.

We can cross that bridge,when-and if we get there.

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It is helpful to know what the actual currency value of the stacks are. If they aren't US dollars, what are they and how does that amount relate to the bankroll of the other players? If the value is insignificant to the players, I'm more inclined to call. If it is significant, fold and then leave the game.

The question comes down to whether he can have AK in his range. KJs is also possible. If so, it is a call. It just depends on whether he thinks two pair is a strong hand. A clue is if he tends to b/b/b with TP. If he does, then 2 pair is strong for him. Hope you have been paying attention.

Well what about the fact we're getting odds if villain is raising with as few bluffs as 8Ts?
Any more hands than that and folding is quickly becoming -ev

Well,you probably know your games best. How common is it for players to check-raise stackoff for 350 blinds as a semibluff on these kind of broadway boards?

Its not common in my games,so i am weighted towards a fold.

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You should look at his full range and not just one hand that beats you and one that doesn't.

That starts by assessing what hands he calls from the straddle. If we get to a very narrow range for the turn overbet, it makes a huge difference if he flats JJ or 3bets that from the straddle for example or if he calls or folds KJo.

Stakes matter. At 1/2 (in a room that also has 2/5 or higher) most solid players aren't capable of putting 180BB in on the turn with a semi-bluff. That's one of the reasons why they play 1/2. At 5/10 you can expect a solid player to be much more balanced here.

I dont think Villain can be or should be showing up with JK or JJ here bc JJ would\should have 3 bet preflop, and JK shouldn't\wouldnt have check raised flop.

If Villain is balancing his range with any bluffs at all this quickly becomes a call because of the math as stated above.
However, lets pretend villain has complete air say "45o" on turn to rationalize. Does villain think he can exploit us by getting us to fold enough of the time bluffing very unbalanced\betting to many hands?
No, because that would demand getting a majority of our perceived range on the turn of AK, or a set to fold, which from his perspective seems highly unlikely.
So if he knows hes getting paid off with QT damn near 100% of the time vs our calling range, there really is no need for him to balance and thus hes back to only doing this with QT.

Thoughts? And just to be clear I dont want to make it seem like im suggesting either or calling or folding in this thread.
Im just looking for other perspectives \math that I may not be considering

I think we should fold.

With all due respect the more I think about this hand deeply the more I think we just have to call.

The thing is we just dont know for absolute certain villain is only doing this with QT.
AND because it only takes villain doing this with 2 additional bluff combos of 8cTc\8sTs before folding becomes a mistake based on our equity in the pot against that range,

(37.9% equity with 99 vs a range of QTs,8cTc,8sTs with pot odds to call of 36.8%)

I dont see how we can fold.

This will also leave us unexploited as we will be calling enough of our range against this line so that were not being exploited folding to much if villain takes this line with too many bluffs. (Either intentionally or not)

Sure, the argument may always remain "if villain only does this with the nuts of QT", but the equity in the pot we lose if we call everytime will be a lesser amount of -ev lost vs the times we fold thinking villain's range only includes QT but actually does include bluffs in it.

The reason why is because we'll be calling and losing a lot less amount of the time against the nuts vs calling a lot more amount of times and winning when villain's bluffing, (if that wasnt obvious)
Therefore why not choose the former?

You didn't state what game your playing, but if its 1/2, 1/3, or 2/5 this is a fold.