Great. I feel better now

I doubled up later vs. table maniac, so wasn't a bad night, even if my one set didn't get paid!

The problem with not getting paid here is that kills the profitability of playing a hand like 33 OOP. If you make $60 when you call the $30 and hit a set, think of how much you are losing overall playing this hand. I know that this thread glossed over GG's objections to calling the PFR but they seem legit here. This isn't a uniquely bad flop, it is a fine flop and we still didn't get a bet called. Hard to see an argument for playing the 33 here given this hand.

I totally disagree. The only reason I didn't "get paid" in the 33 hand is nobody had anything. I think check/raising would have been better just because the OR is so likely to c-bet with his entire range when checked to, but that was my mistake. In this game, you very often get paid. I doubled up a $600 stack with Ad2d form SB with a 6s2s2h flop. There was a straddle and a raise to $30 pre. And I check/raised the flop and still gii on the turn.

Also, a $95 pot ($65 profit) in a 1/3 game is a pretty good outcome -- I do consider it getting paid -- I'm just being greedy.

I wouldn't consider $65 in profit here as "getting paid" when it cost us $30 preflop when we're only going to hit our set 1 in 8 times and are highly unlikely to see a turn if we don't flop one. All told, we have to add up the times we end up really getting paid (like ~$600 stacks) plus our small wins (like this one) and then subtract from that all our losses (the vast majority of our preflop calls that we fold when we whiff, the times we sometimes put in money postflop when we don't flop a set and lose, and most importantly (and often ignored) the devastating times we flop a set and lose). As I say, I'm guessing we though this was going more multiway, but overall it's questionable whether the preflop result (especially OOP against a wide opener who isn't going to lose much very often postflop due to not hitting) is really profitable.

GcluelessprofitablenoobG

Opener would have c-bet almost 100% if checked to. It would have been at least $50, possibly more. My mistake was donking.

If I didn't call these hands pre-flop, I would probably not have a win-rate at all -- these hands are where the money comes from in this game against the right players, and these two were the right players. You basically don't see a flop for less than $20 - $30 (sometimes it's $45), and it's usually four or five (or more) to a flop.

If you guys are playing in games like this (very deep (more than half the table had 300bb+), loose and gambly, straddles, flops cost ~$30 almost every hand) and still disagree with me, fine.

If I kept folding these hands in the right circumstances (and to me, OOP against the right players is the right circumstance), I'd probably be a loser in this game.

There's a natural tendency for us to put too much emphasis on the best case scenarios in these situations. Yes, sometimes we may stack someone for $600, but a number of things have to go right for us.

1. First, we have to flop a set which happens about 1 in 8 times. This means that we lose $210 on the 7 flops where we don't hit a set.

2. The opponents need to hit a hand. If they have two unpaired cards, they each have about a 40% chance of flopping a pair. Obviously they will sometimes flop a pair that they can't continue with, I.e. KQ on AK4 board.

3. The opponents can't hit a hand so good it beats us. Some small fraction of the time they will and we will lose a lot. The wider they are the more likely we will lose a lot when they cooler us.

I think if you run those numbers this pre flop call is maybe marginal at best and possibly -EV. I certainly don't think we should consider it a no brainer.

I do play in similar (probably deeper) games and I'm totally on board with set mining in general. I would say though that I think a lot of people leak money chasing sets in spots that aren't profitable. This situation needs to be recognized as marginal. Being OOP you will make mistakes some nonzero percent of the time that will cost you money. This hand is an example of that. Loose opponents mean that they are less likely to stack off to you and more likely to have hands with equity when they do (straight/flush draws rather than one pair hands).

I would not say this needs to be a fold pre. I would say that especially considering the results of this hand it is not an automatic call and that we should at least consider folding pre.

In the Ad2d hand, I checked the turn to induce and he shoved (I had $425 left; he had me covered) to try to bluff me off the hand. In an earlier hand, V1 in the 33 hand 5bet shoved pre-flop into a 3bet and a shorty all-in and flashed the 2d. These guys will stack off w/o equity. It is beautiful.

Against these guys, to me, it's an auto-call for about 5% of my stack when they have me covered. There are one or two players at the table I'd fold to, but probably not if the other guys come it. If it were more than about 5% of my stack, I'd fold.

The results of this hand are that I made a mistake and donked

With these hand histories id have to agree with you that pre flop should always be a call. You do realize how much worse your donk is when transposed with these hand histories? Part of the reason we are calling pre is to let these maniacs fire away into oblivion and a donk takes that all away.

So I agree now with you pre, but the flop donk (which I think is generally a fine idea) now looks horrible in retrospect.

Thanks for digging it in!!!

One other factor in lose deep stacked games when set mining is the rare but non-zero % of sets where you gii vs more than one player or a deep stack puts in a load of chips before folding while another shoves. This does happen in my 1/2 game more frequently than it really should

Bet so that you get a call from the drawing hands. Don't be afraid if they want to draw (str8 or flush draws). If you bet 33% of pot on the flop they are getting even price but you have redraw. You can even bet less something like just 1/4 of the pot to entice them to draw but don't pay them off is the draw comes out. Bet some more on the turn so that they will show a -EV on the price. They will miss often and two times they will flush but the board will pair and they will obviously lose it all. Don't bet so much as to blow them away. I see this mistake made every day by novice players. They bet so much while saying: "I don't want him to draw to the flush. I'm happy to win what's in the middle right now"

Don't go for the cheap/small pot with a monster. Look to take his stack instead and don't be afraid. You got 10 outs plus a made hand. That's a MONSTER situation.

If you bet and they raise then look to build the pot real fast. Re-raise him big so that you play for stacks right away. No more Mr. Nice Guy, so to speak .. Go for the jugular, go for the kill imediatelly if you get raised.

Lead flop for $100. I really hate c/r these spots because your range is exactly TT/33/monster combo draws when you c/r a multiway huge pot. Leading keeps a lot more draws and Qx in your range and people might spazz with AQ/KQ/draws if you lead while a c/r will often get TPGK to fold and the PFR may not even have anything to get value from. It's ok to bet your own hand! I love when I'm PFR with AQ here and get c/r because I lose so much less money then when a good player just bets every street and puts you in tougher spots.