Hello all,

Thanks in advance for the feedback.

2-3 NL $650 effective.

Folds to hero in hijack. Hero opens to $15 with 6h6s. Button and bb call.

Flop ($40) AsQd6d. Bb checks, hero bets $25, button calls bb calls

Turn ($115) Tc. bb checks, hero bets $100 button jams for like $550 bb folds. Hero?

Assuming no reads on V I probably make a nitty fold here. You rep all sets, AK,AQ and he still shows aggression. I also think your turn bet is too big. You went from $25 to $100. I would have probably been around $50ish.

Snap-call. There's nothing to think about.

Aa and qq unlikely. You are losing to kj or tt. Lots of 2 pair and pair with flush draw

Call

what is your read on button? is button M of F? how old are they?

i was initially thinking turn bet is fine but thinking about it some more i think actually checking this turn vs two players is better. you actually dont want a bloated pot here vs two opponents because of the sheer number of bad rivers making it a potentially bad situation if anyone calls your turn bet. id rather not be in a situation where i bet the turn this amt, get called, and then have to face a huge river bet on any diamond or 4 card straight river. maybe this is a nitty way to think about it but these kinds of spots are the ones that tend to stack ppl the most with 2nd best hands.

I lean towards a fold. Vil just shove overbet after you bet nearly pot. And you have the 4th best set and don't have odds to draw against a straight.
Most opponents would be more cautious with two pair so it takes a special read to call

Hello All, Thanks so much for the input.

My thinking was as follows:

In this game QQ+ is an automatic 3-bet preflop. I also think this guy folds TT on the flop with a player behind, so I think I can safely rule out any bigger sets.

85% of the player pool is never 3-betting lighter than JJ.
That said AK, AQ, AT, QT, AJ, KQ, KJ, KT, JQ, JTs, are all going to be flats from this guy on the button.

My thinking was that this guy has too many 2pair combos in AQ, AT, and QT that I could seem him shoving on me with for me to fold. I could also see him shoving with a pair + straight/flush draw. I thought that it should be difficult for him to put me on set with card removal.

So yeah I wasn't ecstatic about it, but I did make this call, and he shows me KJ lol.

This guy was slightly older (50 - 65) but not really OMC type. I'd seen him call 2 barrels on flop and turn with just over cards against me and other players in other hands. Hadn't seen him make a big shove like this. Loose and passive for the most part I guess.

I saw one user suggesting that I should be calling this turn. I thought in the moment that I should be betting this turn for value when I'm unblocking everything. If he calls on the turn I definitely would be check-folding or check-calling on many river cards depending on sizing. I don't think this guy is finding a big bluff on the river.

I appreciate the responses so far and the continued feedback on if my reasoning made sense. Thanks!

Nailed it. Hero is uncapped and betting nearly pot on turn and still gets 5x shoved on. That is KJ just about always.

This is KJ all day. Its never AA or QQ. Rarely 1010. I fold and die inside if he flashes two pair , because thats really never happening in any games I play going for 200bb shove with two pair over a flop 60%, turn psb. Its always KJ. Anyone saying snap call is hemorraging money.

Reading all the comments now, ya man of means said it well and reading results now yep. Always KJ still. Solver says call though lol

Without history showing bluffs based on description, the more and more I think a spot like this is a fold. I tend not to make this kind of fold, but I am trying to be better about making this kind of fold. I hate making hero folds and I tend to wince at the statement, "the difference between good an great players is making huge folds," but I think this is kind of apt here. A great player probably knows they are supposed to call 66 at least some of the time in theory, but they can also go against the automatic, "top of my range, I call," reasoning.

Overbet shove raises when facing a big bet as a rule are extremely weighted towards value unless we have a reqson to believe villain pulls off huge bluffs.

It’s a cash game, guys, not a tourney. Don’t fold sets. If he binked his gutter or you got overset, just rebuy and move on.

fyi if you look at 150bb solve (the closest i can find to deep sim with similar turn spr), even into 1 person if you b125 and v jams you mix fold w 66. i think in practice if you're looking to call wider than KJ here, you want to choose hands that beat 66/TT that allow him to have 66 (QQ, i guess AA if you somehow decided to do this). i do think flop and turn are both an error strategy wise but its unclear if they get exploited ingame.

also definitely dont fall for propaganda, you cant just randomly lose 200+bb in a srp with a set and tell urself its ok ill reload, cooler, the spr is 16.5 multiways on the flop, people are going to have good hands when the money goes in. i just dont think people float the flop to bluff raise the turn into 1 uncapped range, and 1 range that likely has 16 combos of straights in it very often unless whale. its different in alot of situations vs competent people, but as u get deeper and theres more people in the hand you cant just lose everything every time you have a good but not great hand.

this is terrible advice.

I've seen how this story ends a couple times, and have been on the receiving end once myself. "How could they call that with a gutshot?!" Because the implied odds are there to break you. You don't have to vindicate their hopeful flop call. Not at 200bb deep.

Agreed. With position on the BTN and a chance the K outs are live it’s not even a leaky call if the implied odds are there. And if he had specifically KJ then it’s an automatic call.

I think you can exploit bet more on the flop with 66, just hoping someone has Ax and esp. Ad*d ... and I'd almost certainly not be folding the flop without good reads if anyone raised.

Betting big on the turn seems bad though, as nitty man said we want to control the pot size now looking at what can happen on the river (we don't really want to see anything above a 9) ... esp. vs. BTN who we are OOP against.
Calling it off is mostly bad without reads that V will have AT/QT and decide to shove vs. perceived AK or something.
I don't buy that people have AJ/KQ/QJ/JT (and JT less likely than KJ anyway) here, but I've seen enough that really don't understand relative hand strength and could assume two pair is the nuts.


Also I think people should give davomalvolio a slightly break, because he doesn't play in games where people can just rip 2.5x pot in on a pot bet 50bb turn.
I'd be much more likely to shrug call a $100 raise and would even seriously consider x/c another $100 on a river brick.

yeah, this is B'way all day. Also to the OP I wouldn't discount queens assuming everyone 3bets them pre, or that he won't float TT otf bc those assumptions (giving people too much credit) can eventually come back to bite you. This looks like b'way afraid of the flush coming.

Interesting discussion. So this is a bet/fold for this sizing. That doesn't seem ideal. What would have been a better line? Bet small and then… call a raise? What sizing would have been better than this one?

I think the sizing was ok, but hero made a big bet and the guy raised to like 6x pot with 3 b'dways and a FD out there, this is usually a straight or other (strangely played) sets about 88% of the time in my experience.

I mean it's a pretty big raise, but not 6x pot. A potsized raise would have been 115 + (100x3) = 415 if I'm not mistaken. His all-in is 550, which I don't think is an unreasonable sizing with these stack depths. But yes, it's a relatively big raise, because of hero's almost pot bet.

I wasn't shocked to see this guy turn over KJ or anything, but I did think that KJ was almost certainly the only hand he could have here that I lose to. I really found it difficult to believe that he would have a bigger set considering the action.

I also thought he could be the guy to overvalue a two pair hand like AQ or MAYBE a pair + draw. Often enough at least for me to make the call, then if I'm wrong and he has KJ then maybe luckbox a full house on the river.

I'm curious what bet sizing you guys would say is ideal on the flop and turn.

Thanks again.

Heuristically this is sound thinking, and in player pools where there is more semi bluffing, thinking about blockers, etc, (or wild players) you make a good case.

The price is such that you need 37% equity to break even.

There are 16 combos of KJ, and you have 23% equity against those. I might give it 2 combos of things like ATdd, AJdd, against which you have 70% equity. Overall this gives you 28% equity. If there are more semi bluffs and misguided AQ, maybe you get to 37% against the range. Reads will help.

a good player at a high stakes game could and probably should bluff AI Jd9d here

i dont think that happens that these stakes, because most people wouldnt fold a set or even two pair vs a jam.

I open limp in the HJ but that's just me.

I would probably smash a PSB on this flop. No one is folding a draw or TP to one bet so we're missing huge value against those by betting smaller, imo. ETA: And now realizing we were actually still 3way on the turn, I don't despise a check either.

I probably don't bet as big on the turn now. Wow, fairly sucky spot facing the jam. Overall, this really depends on how your game plays overall, how you opponent plays, and what your opponent thinks of you. I have a super nitty image, so me personally I'm repping all the nutty sets, and yet my opponent doesn't seem to care. And he just got in a big 215bb stack. In most conditions in my game, against most opponents, against me, this would be extremely nuttish (and two pear don't qualify as remotely nuttish). So I'd make a nitty fold. But your conditions may differ (mainly, keep an eye out for how often $600+ stacks go in and what people are getting it in with).

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