Hero has played with Villain for about 2 hours. Hero has played pretty solid TAG game, hasnt played any significant pots (starting stack 750). Villain has only played 4 pots in 2 hours, limping/calling raises and has won 2 of them with aq and 1010 w tptc and op by valuetowning 2/5 "regs" lol. Villain has 950 $ and has hero covered. Oh and this goes down at Mohegan Sun Poker Room on a Saturday mid-day session.


Preflop : Hero has 800$ behind UTG full ring w 33 and raises to 15. Villain calls, cutoff calls, sb calls, bb calls.

Flop Pot($75) : 943 Small blind leads out for 35, bb folds, Hero reraises to 90, Villain thinks for 5-10 seconds and makes it 235 total. Cutoff folds, sb folds, hero?

I am very familiar with Mohegan Sun--stopped going there when I moved up, but I am always in the area.

Here, you have a set OOP on a semi-connected flush board where villain has already likely committed himself if he is on the draw.

I would shove the flop here--you do not want a heart to fall to either kill the action with the best hand or cause you to second-guess your own hand's strength. He is passive pre-flop, so he can show up here with an overpair or a flush draw enough.

If this is set over set, it is a cooler.

that is a tough spot, seems like set over set. you need to reraise all in, than rebuy, if your coolered.

Right on. Your raise really isn't that scary to villain since that's in the ballpark of what you would've c-bet if you had an overpair (or like 88-66) or flushdraw yourself. In a limped pot 150BB deep, I would pause and worry about going broke. But a raised pot, SPR of 10, you can get your money in and be ok with the occasional cooler happening.

Villain thinking 5-10 seconds is usually b/c he knows he wants to raise but has to compute the amount. I expect his range to be sets, overpairs, AXhh, some KXhh, 65hh.

My point of disagreement with IWSJ is that I might call and try to extract more on the turn from hands that would otherwise fold to a flop jam. But being out of position, that may not go so well and the pot is already big relative to your stack so there's not a huge incentive to get greedy.

the only thing i dont like about calling here, is what if the Ah or another heart comes, than where are we.

There are just so many scare cards that can fall on the turn that can kill the action from made hands, and a flush draw in position can elect to check behind if checked to or fold if we decide to lead into them. We want the flush draw to get all of the money in now, where they still have a distinct disadvantage, and that is tough to do on the turn being out of position.

One may argue that it is correct to wait until the turn to shove a set, but I disagree.

--Although a flush draw has a better chance of completing on the flop, they are still at a huge disadvantage here, and the turn will come out the same, anyway. If they miss the turn and still have a decision, they are far more likely to fold.

--If the draw HITS, shoving turns our hand into a value-bluff that may fold out better and may get called by worse, but we are certainly getting called by the flush. Checking allows a hand that would have otherwise paid us on the flop to check behind and get away, and also allows us to make a big mistake by folding.

In position, I would consider flatting, as if a heart does not fall, I could raise if bet into and shove if checked to, and could shove the river if the heart falls villain checks to us twice, as this is never a flush, and can get away from the hand if shoved on by the river. But OOP, we will find it hard to extract maximum value from the villain.

Everything jerseys said....

Except I make the raise of that donk bet abit bigger....

Flat call get it in on the turn.

May I ask your logic? I know draws have a much larger disadvantage on the turn, but if they get it in on the flop, they brick the turn, anyway.

And if they hit the turn, do we really fold a set OOP?

Let's say for simplicity purposes that villain has an 18% chance to flush us on the turn, all 9 outs being clean given that none pair the board. And let's assume they are on the flush draw 100% of the time, and that we fold if they hit 100% of the time, and they fold if we miss 100% of the time.

Profit vs. flush if we get it in on turn:

345 * .82 - 235 * .18 = 240.60 (winnings * % of win - flop investment * % of loss)

Profit vs. flush if we get it in on flop:

Hand 0: 74.444% 74.44% 00.00% 737 0.00 { 3h3s }
Hand 1: 25.556% 25.56% 00.00% 253 0.00 { AhKh }

This accounts for the possibility of the board pairing OR a flush card coming on the turn and river. We will round up for simplicity.

860 * .74 - 750 * .26 = 441.40

The numbers are closer if we have 2 pair, but the logic is the same, if villain were to show us the flush draw, we want the money in now.

And my calculations do not factor in intangibles, such as a scare card hitting allowing a hand that would get it in on the flop to get away from us, which is a real killer.

The above situation is the most favorable situation for someone who argues that the money against a flush draw should go in on the turn. The only time I would argue for the money going in on the turn is if we are facing a villain who is bad enough to call a PSB with a flush draw and 1 card to go.

IWSJ:

[ ] is smart
[ ] is good at poker
[x] has too much time on his hands

IWSJ:

[x] is good at math

As to my thoughts on the hand, it was tough because I had only played a very limited amount of times with the villain, but he seemed like he has a set for all the world in this spot. I know it sounds absurd to narrow his range to the only two hands that are beating me, but the table had been playing fairly loose (there were two drunks guys spewing and a lot of hands were going multiway to the flop) and yet this guy had only played 4 hands in 2 hours.

My thoughts on villain's range were that a portion of it (10-15%) he could have smooth called w 1010 or jj pf with a lot of players left to act and simply been playing it slow to setmine/see a favorable flop/he isnt confident playing a really big pot w these 2 hands and the 235 is to find out where he's at and protect his op; slight possibility of having qq (<5%), very unlikely cuz he seemed competent but u never know w some live players... i felt he could have a bigger set here given his raise and his image/bet sizes(in this hand and in previous ones) so 44 and 99 (maybe 40%) and hands like axxhh kxhh and 56hh rounding out the rest of his range. In my mind there was very little chance he had something like 43 suited, or 52 suited, and no chance he had 9 4, kk, or aa (he was NOT the type to slowplay either aa or kk pf or call w 94).


I wasn't comfortable to say the least, but I figured he could have op like tt, jj, maybe qq, 56hh, or axhh, kxhh enough times to justify a shove.

IWSJ is correct. Get it in. There are so many cards on the turn that could kill our action. This is the last hand that villain is putting you on so he probably thinks that he is ahead and if he gets his stack in with a flush draw, that is a scenario that I will take everyday and twice on Saturdays

What about when he has a higher set and u need runner runner hearts

Then it is an extreme cooler. You only have 150 bbs, so folding bottom set on a board with 2 hearts and no made flush/straight possibility is just unprofitable, IMO.

I have been good with bottom set for over 300 bbs at the 5/10 level enough times to justify the desire to just get it in here and live with the results. Especially against a limp/calling station who can easily be overvaluing one pair hands according to your history.

Cool, I appreciate your advice throughout this thread, thanks for the insight. At the time I felt like his line was so strong, and I had a bad feeling (spidey senses tingling) so was obv a bit upset to get it in just bc of the result, but the logic of the situation seems to dictate that getting it in is best here overall in the long run, unless I have extensive history with the player in question. So all I can really say is nh and move one.

I would need to have a read that a player is an extremely-tight player incapable of doing this with worse than a set to fold here. What did he end up having, a set of 4s?

yep. and i turned a heart for a sweat.. sick thing is he said he put me on two big hearts (obv never expecting set of 3s here) and if i smooth called flop heart hits turn, prob dont lose stack (goes check check board doesnt pair riv). but like stated above in the long run getting it in on the flop is the more profitable play

The only way one can really justify flatting the flop is if all of the following are true:

--We are in position (this is preferable, although if you are OOP, you can shove the river if checked to on the turn...you may be bluffing right into the nuts, though)
--We are checked to on all streets after another heart falls
--We are confident that we can get him to lay down a set to a pot-sized river shove
--We believe that the villain has us beaten over 66% of the time, but do not want to fold a strong hand that may not be good

All of these things rarely happen at once.

You said earlier that u are familiar w Mohegan but that you don't really play there since you moved up. I assume that referred to your current stakes, so may I ask what stakes you play now?

I play the highest they offer at Foxwoods, 5/10 usually, but I am one of the "voices" known for lobbying for the occasional 10/20 and 10/25. I am currently taking a short break, which gives me a lot of times to post in this forum and the Medium-High Stakes NL forum.

well thanks man I really do appreciate being able to discuss hands that have been tough for me/where I feel I might've made errors with experienced players such as yourself.

any chance I could discuss general strategy with you in a more interactive format?

Poker players help each other out. I post hands quite regularly, myself--when it comes to making mistakes, I am a champ. Once you gain a certain number of posts I believe, you will be able to send PMs to other members.

I will gladly answer to any PMs you have in the future.

thanks man i really do appreciate it, I have done well playing low stakes mtts online and did well with plo for a while, but never really tried playing cash games seriously online and have transitioned now mostly to live cash (which seems much easier then cash online anyways) so I'm still a bit new at playing live seriously.

That being said I have had pretty impressive results playing 1/2 and 1/3 live although I will admit its over a small sample size, but I have found myself getting into gross spots and losing in cooler situations when i take shots at higher levels.. which is obviously frustrating bc I feel like I can definitely play at 2/5 and higher live with good results if I had the bankroll to do it.

Anyway, I will try to get my post count up so I can pm you, would love to talk strategy.

Apologies for an extremely lazy first post. I glanced at the hand, and I was grinding when I wrote that. Now, I will elaborate on my thought process.

We just got cold 3bet from a player who is limping hands like AQ and TT... if we get it in on this flop we are almost never ahead. I would rather fold than jam.

Killing our action? Why are we so excited to get all the money in with bottom set after a nit just cold 3bet into two people - one being the preflop UTG raiser? Can he have TT/JJ/QQ I find it unlikely because so often he will flat these hands, but can't say he never has them. If he does have them is he sticking in another $600ish on the flop?

I don't think villain has a FD here all to often so I'm not that worried about profit from a flush. If he does have a FD it's A2/A5 and we can't really raise for value on the flop anyways since we're basically flipping. I would expect him to flat with those big draws anyways. 18% of the time when a heart does hit the turn we can check and re evaluate the hand. If a heart peeled on the turn and the action went check check it wouldn't be such a bad thing. His turn actions will narrow down his range even further on so many turn cards.

Villain's tenancy is to be cautious. He is limping strong, but not nut hands like TT, AQ. We can exploit this tendency post flop. First of all, is this villain ever cold 3bet bluffing in this spot? Never say never, but the chances of him bluffing here are fractions of a percent imo. How often is he valuetowning himself with a hand like TT+? Not very often, but sometimes. How often will he raise here with a set instead of flatting? Almost always. How often will he raise with A2/A5? Hard to say, chalk this up to being unknown given villain information. I would guess he flats these hands or even folds them more often than he raises them though.

Even though his range is ahead we can still flat because villain will play poorly on the turn and river.

If the turn is a heart this type of villain will check hands like TT+ and sets, and we can value bet the river and still get a call from those hands. If the turn is a heart and he makes a healthy bet we can comfortably fold.
If the turn is a non heart high card and he checks, he's pretty polarized to flop overpairs (TT, JJ, QQ) and we can make a small river value bet. If the turn is a non heart high card and he bets, we can fold because we're only ahead of his draws, and he isn't even playing them like this all the time.
If the board is a non heart low card we can check jam and force him to stack off with hands like TT, JJ, QQ because of how much he has invested.

As opposed to getting it in on the flop and hoping the we're either A. flipping or B. Against TT/JJ and villain is calling a 4bet with it.

I've seen bottom set good for 200+BBs at the $25/$50 level, but stakes are pretty irrelevant. The only relevant information is villain. I wouldn't consider set over set an extreme cooler in this hand.