He is 70 years old. Tight and passive. Its 1/3. It is a limped pot. How many 1/3games do you need to play or witness vs 70 year olds who are tight and passive to know? Why would we ever commit 20x more money vs this type of player with the fifth nuts in a LIMPED pot? Seriously this happens three times a night at those stakes. They have it 90% of the time. Do they show up with AA here occasionally? Sure. But not combo draws. Its 79 most ofthe time with 88 and a little AA or KK sprinkled in.

If they always have top set/nut straight and 10% overpairs here, then preflop they 3bet KK/AA always and 10% AK. But we know this guy can 3bet squeeze with SCs, so that idea goes out the window. You simply can't put people on the nuts always unless you have really strong evidence that that's the case and here we have evidence that directly contradicts that hypothesis.

Huh? Why would you say it’s only ever 88/97/AA/KK but never 66/86?


Point is: If he can have 88/97, he can also have 66/86. If he has just those 4 hands then we have nearly enough equity to jam. 45% is the breakeven equity needed assuming V never folds,

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

92,070 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 568

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
55	44.09%	39,704	1,788
66,88,86,97	55.91%	50,578	1,788

If you give him 86, which is a huge stretch, now you think he calls a jam with that? A 70 year old at a 1/3 table? In a multiway limped pot on this board? 6th nuts? I donÂ’t know if the loosest players at the 1/3 where I play stack off with 86 here in a limped family pot. You are basically drawing to 4 outs 90% of the time its jammed on the flop. It is mind boggling to me the number of players involved in this hand does not change things for most people.

45% equity for all the money in before you jam including his $60. 20% equity for the last $280.

In the end if you still think jamming or calling is best here, I think its a long term leak if you are at the smallest stakes game in the room playing limped family pots.

No one is folding two pear at this stack depth after that raise amount, not even if you table the nut straight beforehand (as they'll figure they have good enough odds to boat up).

ETA: I mean, I'm the king of nitty folds and I'm certainly not fistpumping as I get my chips in. But I'm still getting my chips in (perhaps even sighing as I do).

GimoG

What? To call with top two you need the pot to be about $800 vs 47, 79, or 55. You need the pot to be $1400 if he has 66 and over $10k vs 88.
What else is getting jammed limped pot? One combo of A7 suited?

You flopped a set vs. an old guy who is capable of 3bet squeezing with 67s for 75bb. GII.

larry, i think it's important here to consider that GG is the nittiest nit to ever grace our forum

if he's calling, i'm calling

I'm not saying he has the odds to call with two pear; I'm saying he thinks he probably does / is close enough. One of the most common sayings you hear at the poker table is "pot odds!" and yet if you asked that person what the pot odds actually were at that point (or what pot odds they actually required), very few of them would know.

I agree with you in that he shows up with a bunch of hands that beat us a lot of the time. My guess is not enough of the time. But thinking someone is going to raise the flop with two pear and fold to this relatively small $ amount behind for a 1/3 NL game is out of touch with how the game plays, imho.

Gcluelesspotodd!snoobG

now add in the other 2 pair combos and SOME QQ-AA combos and it becomes alot closer. I'm sorry but im never folding here with all the money in the pot already and only 70 bbs effective

I hear what you are saying. My thing is here if we are good equity wise it is barely, but from my experience rarely.

In general flop jams at these stakes are always the nuts. I would say the last 20x I saw a flop jam live at these stakes its a set, flush or straight. Its never an overpair or combo draw unless its 1am and the drunks came to gamble. Maybe your casino is different. But in my experience the old men never jam a flop without it. Especially limped. The 67 suited everyone brings up…..he didnt really give the parameters of what happened. One thing these old guys hate is to be constantly raised preflop. If they think you raise too much sometimes they tilt and fire back with garbage because they want to let you know they can't be bullied. That happens about a couple times a night vs obviously aggressive players where Im at. OMC like to occasionally lay down the law…….ever play a limit game low stakes? They HATE raises and will tilt at a certain point if their regular comfortable game is disturbed.

^
Really just comes back to the same implicit argument you already made, which is that villain only gets aggressive without the nuts preflop, not postflop. That's not impossible BTW but it's a very big conclusion to draw on very little evidence.

this doesn't make any sense to me. If he does have a FD why would we let him take free cards and control the pot IP. I basically think we have to jam and hope he has two pair, but on a gut level it feels like a bad spot.

I feel this has run it's course. Results?

H folded and we’ll never know what V had.