i think its a fold and not really that close. problem is once you call the turn even though you are getting immediate odds you are most likely going to play for stacks by the river which is not what you want to happen with one pair here. i feel like calling the flop to fold the turn is just throwing money away

No,
10% you are not committed yet but the next bet/call/raise will commit yourself to the pot. The 10% is the threshold of commitment and that is the signal that if you bet after this point you become committed and cannot fold anymore unless we can see his cards and determine we are dead. lol, lol, Whatever you do make sure your pf raise plus the flop cb together are 10% or less of effective stacks. Commitment is related to the SPR and that is related to effective stacks and pot size. And all of that is called "pot control" that you've got to master in order to be a winning player. Even if you are a great player but mess up the commitment you will not win in the long run and actually you will lose big time and you don't know why. lol, lol, lol, ..., That's for sure!


Che,

i mean there are really only two hands that are way ahead of us at this point that limps preflop and thats A9 and Q9, he most certainly raises AA QQ 99 and AQ pre. there are no NFD's in his range with the ace of diamonds out there. we're slightly ahead of KdJd JdTd KdTd type hands...im pretty sure im calling and c/bombing all safe turns

Disclaimer : I tend to give young kids the benefit of them being capable until proven otherwise.

I honestly dont think his 2b is reppin anything after limp-calling 7 bbs. NO iso w/a9s or q9s pre?? Besides, even if he did somehow show up w/2 pr; umm mayb its not such a good texture to 2b/get it in against a prfr who is behind w/only AK here and also it would suck to 2b/fold in that spot as well??

Mayb i give ppl too much credit for being able to think and i end up leveling myself, I dunno. Im jamming here since he reps nothing but draws/air.

I doubt we're ahead of 10dJd. We should be a slight dog
And that is the type of combo/drawing hand that most player types would raise with

yeah only combo draw we are behind is JdTd and even still we're 55/45ish dog, and i never suggested gettin it in on the the flop, which is why if you read my post, im check/bombing a safe turn...

check flop? go right into passive c/c mode after 3bing pre and hitting that flop? no thank you

Call flop.

C/jam blanks, c/f diamonds, c/soul read K, J, T, 8 but probably still jam and deal with it if the straight hit. He has a draw. Only A9 beats you (seriously people.. Q9 here?) and even that shouldn't be *too* confident given that you raised pre out of the blinds and cbet this flop into 2 people (basically AK is the worst hand you have here and your entire other range is sets and top two... no?).

Feel free to jam the flop if you don't feel like slicing your variance against a combo draw/you run well/you want to show this kid how few value hands he's repping and how little respect you have for his game. Please don't fold. Seriously. Please.

Which card isn't a diamond? I'd probably fold if that one pairs too, especially if it's the Jack.

Professional NLHE by Ed Miller and Sunny Mehta.

Chapter on commitment threshold. Essentially says that 10% is the threshold. Once we put more in we need to have a specific plan. ex. jamming if the turn is a non-spade, folding if an A or K hits, etc.

If we call the $200 OTF and are basing our turn decision on how much he bets, thats flawed poker.

Yes, absolutely possible. Think about it:

Loose villain limp/calls from LP. Frankly, Q9 is just as plausible as A9

I have thought about it, but here's the explanation since apparently it's not as obvious as I thought.

There's at most 4 combos of A9s (hearts and clubs) and Q9s (not diamonds and whichever suit is the other one on the board) that are possible, and it's conceivably fewer depending on what suit the non-diamond is and whether it's the Q or 9 (e.g. If 9 isn't the diamond or a spade, there's 1 combo of A9s).

And that's before we consider discounting combos of Q9s because he may not be calling that hand always/ever here preflop.

Villain's value range is really small and his semi-bluff range is really, really big. I'd feel pretty great about c/jamming a blank turn and if I ran into one of the 3 combos he should ever show up with (provided OPs reads about his preflop play are sound, which seems likely) well then that's just life.

Stopped reading after this ^^^^

I think you are projecting your own thinking onto a random loose villain here, and justifying the need to continue in this hand...which is fine..No one is 100% dead on right with their hand reading. If you want to continue in this hand, then applying your reasoning to it is justifiable. Either, it ends up being heroic or disasterous

This is how I see it:

LOOSE villain who is in LATE POSITION decides to LIMP after a few others have limped in. Hero raises and gets two callers, one of which is said villain.

Maybe we have different villains in our respective card rooms. But when I read this description, this villain can have any two playable cards, and this includes A9 OFFSUIT and Q9 OFFSUIT

I dont like my hand too much when villian raises. This is live, you bet big on an A high board and got raised, no one would expect you to fold an A. Without a better read on my opponent and a flop raising dynamic I would pitch it.

Is there something wrong with me that i think this is a shove almost all the time and be actually be happy with it?

The only hand that i think he raises here that you lose to is AQ.

My understanding of OP is that Villain likes to see lots of "cheap" flops and that while he may have limped those hands, he's not calling a $35 raise with hands dominated by the raisers range and likely to make something 2nd best.

If Villain is a drooler who will play ATC to try to hit a flop and only play hard post flop when he hits something really good, then by all means, fold.

Even loose/average 2/5 players do not usually call that raise pre in Villain's shoes with A9o or Q9o. That would make him a massive fish, and if Villan is such a player, Hero should have realized it pretty quickly.

If villain limps and likes to see lots of flops cheap, we can't discount him having 99 as well. Limping behind a bunch of other limpers is absolutely reasonable and doesn't have to raise in his spot given his position.

It's so close, but until we have better reads that he's aggro post with his draws, we have to give credit for him having a hand. Even if he has a draw, it could be a huge combo draw that we are basically 50/50 equity and if he has 2 pair+,set, we should def fold. We only have AK one pair and he's relatively unknown besides relatively tight/aggressive post, leans me towards fold

This was basically my thinking and while I dont think he has a set very often, we could give him one combo of 99 for the times he does. I think its absolutely reasonable he has A9s/Q9s, but not A9o or Q9o. Of course the suited ones have very few combos and I agree with mark that we should discount an additional combo of Q9s.

Best case scenario we are flipping/slightly behind a big draw, worst case are drawing to 3 outs or runner runner.

Just messing around with poker stove, I gave the villain one combo of 99, one combo of Q9s, the standard gs+fd, oesd+fd, and a bunch of X9dd. I think thats a fairly reasonable range, if anything he probably has a few less X9dd's than I gave him. Even with that optimistic range, were still around a 42% dog. I think we need him to be doing this with some plain flush draws, some plain straight draws, or some weaker aces to make shoving correct. If youre absolutely set on not folding, I think calling and donking the turn and c/shoving the turn both have merit.

Just for the sake of argument let's say the board is AdQh9d (calcs are going to vary slightly depending on the exact board, but we need something to go off of since OP didn't clarify, and the one is picked is not the best case scenario for our hand).

If we use the following range: 99 (1 combo), A9s, Q9s (1 combo), KTdd+, QTdd+, JTdd, it kind of works out like this:

Iif we c/f on all diamonds, 8s, and T-Q (and c/j everything else) then we're losing $115 (by calling flop as opposed to folding) roughly 45% of the time (21 out of 47). Our aggregate equity in the pot (which will max out $1835 if we both get all in) the other 55% of the time (26 out of 47 cards) is about 53% so that means our share of the pot vs. his range is $972... a profit of $192 at the decision point.

So calling and then c/fing or c/jing (depending on turn card) is ~+$54 EV.

This assumes of course Villain bets every turn when checked too -which obviously we can't be sure he'll do - but it gets really hard to come up with realistic numbers/percentages if we don't assume it just for the sake of argument (and everybody seems pretty confident in their responses that Villain is betting turn if we call, so I doubt it's a problematic assumption). This also assumes Villain never folds, and I think there's at least a non zero percent chance some Villains could fold A9 or Q9 on the turn when we check/jam on a blank (which is obviously amazing for us if it ever happens).

Villain either has to not be playing combo draws like this or we have to start adding more combos of 99 and Q9s for this to be a fold on the flop.

What about the possibility of Villain limp/calling with any Ax suited? If Villain is putting us on a hand like TT, JJ, or KK, he may be thinking the $85 is just a c-bet to represent a big Ace hand. His $200 raise may be with the thought that any Ace is good here and we will fold any non-Ace or non-set hand.

If we're going with this hand I like a flop shove rather than a flat and bombing the turn. My thinking for this is the value hands Villain is repping (A9, Q9, JdTd) really aren't that strong considering how the hand has played out with regard to us 3betting from the BB. If Villain has A9 or Q9 here and we bet out, get raised, and ship the flop he's not going to be thrilled about it. We're repping alot stronger than what he has, and might get him to fold better hands.

A flop shove would be scarier than calling and betting out turns IMO.

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