Borgata $1/$2 NL -- Flop open ended with 2 deep stacks in pot; one's a maniac - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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Borgata $1/$2 NL -- Flop open ended with 2 deep stacks in pot; one's a maniac

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01-26-2011 , 10:09 PM

mrloomis

enthusiast

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 71

We're 8-handed at a live $1-$2NL table.

MP1 $600 - Sometimes tricky, but usually standard player
MP2 $800 - Table image is Crazy - Slumming at these stakes with a friend; lots of blind bets; plays ATC for fun; known to be an excellent player
CO $550 (Hero) Q

- Somewhat nitty table image, with some unorthodox hands thrown in

Preflop action is a standard raise from MP1, then two callers
Flop is K

($39)

MP1 checks
MP2 bets $20
CO calls $20
MP1 reraises to $100

MP2 tanks for a little while, says he "has to" call. Pot's now $279

Hero?

Last edited by mrloomis; 01-26-2011 at 10:21 PM.

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01-26-2011 , 10:14 PM

Garick

Oberbiergenießer

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 26,524

Pot's now $279, isn't it? This is a fold to me. You are getting the right odds if you only have to call one bet, but with these players, you are likely facing another large bet on the turn. You're def not getting the right immediate odds.

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01-26-2011 , 10:26 PM

mrloomis

enthusiast

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 71

Anyone shoving here?
I'm thinking at the time that if both players smacked this flop, then the Aces and 9s are still out there, plus there are lots of blockers to either of them filling up.
Am I getting the right odds if they both call a shove?

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01-26-2011 , 11:08 PM

KneedUrDough

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 3,210

fold PF

pot is $259, $80 to call (~3.25-to-1) and u have 8 outs to the nuts (~5-to-1 to make ur hand OTT.) Pot will be $339 if u call and u'd need to get ~$150 in the middle to make calling correct.

problem is... MP1 may have one or two of ur outs (meaning u could be drawing at ~6.75-to-1) but if u hit, u'll almost always get all the money in.

I call (because of implied odds and because MP1 obviously has a hand that will often pay u off)

After MP1's crai I doubt u have any FE (so shoving would be bad imo)

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Originally Posted by mrloomis

Am I getting the right odds if they both call a shove?

^^^this is incorrect thinking as if u shove, u don't want to be called.

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01-27-2011 , 12:45 AM

Man of Means

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 5,110

Call. You're closing the action in position, the board is rainbow and unpaired (meaning your outs should be clean) and implied odds are attractive.

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01-27-2011 , 04:11 AM

Grumpy

banned

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 237

Getting 3.5 to 1 with massive implied odds against two deep stacks closing the action. Obv about 5 to one to make your straight on the turn, but u are drawing to the nuts and ur opponents do not have the info u currently have. U can safely fold a brick turn obv. Additionally if an ace falls you have a good shot at getting one if not both their stacks.

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01-27-2011 , 05:09 PM

flakydorf

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 83

Implied odds make this a call for me as well. You're deep enough that getting a chance to stack 1 and possibly 2 players is 100% worth it.

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01-27-2011 , 06:29 PM

Nogyong

veteran

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,801

Call.

KneedUrDough summed it up.

Your equity in having the best hand by the turn is better than your implied pot odds.

You have about a 16% chance of binking on the turn. If you thought you could win on average $500 from this pot when you it then your implied pot odds would be $80/$500 = 16%. Clearly you're going to win more than $500 on average when you hit. Two of these guys have big hands.

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01-28-2011 , 05:36 AM

dgiharris

All Hail His Modness

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 12,292

Kneed did a good job of summarizing everything, I more or less agree. Without fold equity shoving becomes an incorrect play. This scenario epitomizes the beauty of being deep. You are deep enough to call and draw, you hit your draw, you stack 1 or maybe even both villains, YUMMY!!!!!

So draw.

If action gets to heavy on the turn, you can fold, but you definitely have the odds to call the flop bet and re-evaluate turn.

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01-28-2011 , 01:03 PM

#10

gobbledygeek

Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 36,150

Interesting that villain says he "has to call"; doesn't this usually mean a drawing hand, in which case do we have to factor in that we're possibly chopping here?

I still call though for reasons everyone else stated. Cuz I have to.

I'm also cool with preflop due to the fact that we're playing very deep; obviously we're not going to get overexcited about flopping top pair here.

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01-28-2011 , 01:50 PM

#11

tskarzyn

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 317

Calling here pretty much turns your hand face up, and you said that the maniac is actually a solid player so he may not stack off when an A/9 hits. That being said.. I still probably call here since the stacks are so deep and there's no possible flush/fh on turn.

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