1/3 game, stack depths from around 100 to 1500, most players somewhere in the 500-800 range.

Bomb pot on each dealer change, 10 EUR/player.

Villain is playing pretty snug preflop, rarely raises, does limp-call a lot. Does not put money in with nothing, bets his value hands most of the time although he check-calls some OOP, has a tendency to sometimes overvalue TP type holdings. Will fold if the thinks he is beat though.

Hero is a rec and has had a rough night so far, but not really being involved in huge pots. Recently doubled up another player with JJ vs AA in a 150BB pot, not against this villain, (hero raise, BB 3B, hero calls, flop is 974 w/ flushdraw, check-bet-allin-call) and soon after folded to a five-bet against that same player (hero in MP, raise 10,-re-raise 35, hero makes it 105 with AKs, BB pushes for 500 total and hero reluctantly folds).

Stacks:
Hero a little under 500
Villain covers

Flop (Pot: 80)
763r

Checks to Hero in MP.
Hero bets 50, villain calls from the SB.

Turn: (Pot: 180)
763 4, bringing in a flush draw.
V checks, Hero bets 125, V tank-calls.

River: (Pot: 430)
763 4 5, flush draw does not get there.
V checks.

Hero has around 300 left.

My thinking is that basically my entire range here is an all-in, since V will have very few eights in his range after having played like this, in order to force my opponent to fold or call hoping for a chop. Am I wrong?

He has all the 8s, bad read. Not sure how else to comment on this hand it’s quite vague.

How does he have all the eights after check-calling a sizeable turn bet and checking for a third time on the river? The most reasonable combos are 85 and 98 IMHO - maybe the occasional 8xs or a rare 88, although I expect one-pair hands without a flushdraw to fold to the turn bet on a board like this in a bomb (and most of them already on the flop).

Maybe I am just extrapolating my own thinking, since I don´t see myself continuing with these types of hands after the turn bet (and with these stack sizes, I would check-raise all-in with 85, hoping that my opponent has a five, is unable to find a fold with a set, or holds a combo draw and calls it off), and I definately can´t see myself checking a 34567 board with an eight in my hand unless I have a very good reason to think that my opponent will try to steal what he perceives as a split pot. It´s true, however, that we don´t have a whole lot of reasonable 8x-combos in our hand as well that we´d play like this.

Either I missed it, or you never said what you had. However, bomb pots get crazy at 1/3, so I never get involved without some strong holding that hits the board. On the infrequent occasion that I bluff, it's never before the turn, or flop is checked to me on the button.

Also, I don't use hand ranges like you seem to and agree with Amanaplan that an 8 is in Villain's range.

And yes, I think I win my fair share of bomb pots.

I don’t think V has many 8s. If he had 85 he would probably raise turn or lead river. He could have 98 or a stubborn 87, though turn call is kinda spew with those hands.

Some players would also lead river with any 8x, leaving their checking range unprotected.

For river value, I think hero can have all 16 combos of 85 and some 98 that bet turn. His river “bluffs” would be 54, sets that bet turn, and some backdoor flush draw hands.

I think it’s fine to basically range bet river from hero’s perspective. Most if not all of Vils range should be 2-pair/5x type hands.

I did not say what I had, since I don´t really feel that it matters - what I am interested in is if there are any hands we check behind here and why, since at the table I saw this spot as a mandatory all-in, no matter what our actual holding is, as (if called) we will be splitting the pot basically 95%+ of the time and he will be put in a gross spot after my all-in, since he is basically calling to split at best and put in a spot where he basically has two lousy choices.

Pushing someone off a split usually requires a fairly good read of your opponent. Otherwise, it's just fancy play, or FPS. Frankly, the fact that you're asking the question tells me that this is probably the case.

I misread the board you're right, although, he should have all 89 and some random pair+FD hands that have the 8. Bottom line is player as described is wider and frankly, I cannot imagine that he just folds with the straight ob often enough and he CAN have an 8 with so many combos he might choose to be a gambling with bc the pot is getting big/he was dealt it randomly.

I really think it's just a check unless you have an 8.

This basically boils down to a math problem but the important part is obviously the reads (how often V has 8x, how often V folds a chop).

let
X = pot size
B = bet size
F = percentage chance that V folds a chop if we bet.
P = percentage chance that V has an 8 (and calls the jam).

The formula is the following:
If F > 2BP/(X(1-P)) then EV(jam) is more than EV(check)
If F < 2BP/(X(1-P)) then EV(check) is more than EV jam.
F= 2BP/(X(1-P)) is breakeven — it doesn’t matter what you do

We know X=430 and B=300.
So breakeven fold equity is F= 600P/(430(1-P)) = 1.4 * P/(1-P)

If you think he has an 8 like 20% of the time then P=.2 and the breakeven F value is =1.4 .2/.8 =.35 and you need him to fold a chop more than 35% of the time to profit.

If you think V has an 8 only 5% of the time then the breakeven value is F=1.4 .05/.95=.07. So you need him to fold a chop more than 7% of the time.

If you think the guy is scared money and he donks a lot with his strong hands, then a jam is automatic.

Otherwise it’s a guessing game.

What ended up happening?

Thanks. This is a really helpful post.

What happened was that I jammed, he tanked for like 3-4 minutes and then folded 55 face up. I mean, at the table, as soon as that five hit and he checked it to me, my read was that this is a wonderful spot to be in since I basically can't lose, unless he has precisely 85 which he for some reason did not c/r the turn with, or 98 (although I think he will fold 98 to the turn bet at least a part of the time with the flush draw appearing on the turn as well).

In this spot I got really lucky, I was out of line on the flop (I think I had Qs3s, or Qs6s, something along those lines) and picked up some equity with a flush draw on the turn (and figured that it is a good card to double barrel, since it isn't really a card that favours a lot of hands he would check-call the flop with). After he checked the river I was pretty sure that the risk of him having an eight here is quite low, so basically pushing should be printing, as he is forced to call for a split.

I was actually surprised to see him turn up with 55 here, since I've seen him fastplay strong hands (or hands he perceives as strong) in previous pots, in previous sessions, and was kind of expecting him to re-raise a straight on the turn. Not sure if he was somehow scared of 85 or wanting to see a "safe" river before committing to playing for stacks, or if he was trying to trap the LAG donkey (wouldn't have worked though, as soon as he called I was cursing myself for not taking a free card and basically decided to shut down on the river unimproved) here. And trapping the LAG donkey by checking three times and then folding to a push also doesn't make that much sense, does the LAG donkey really show up with an eight often enough on this board for folding to be profitable? Knowing me, I'd say no, since the LAG donkey thinks he needs to push his entire range here...

Interesting.
IDK what the 55 showdown says about this player. Kinda surprised he didn't check-raise all-in on turn. I guess it makes me think he has more 8x than you are giving him credit for., especially a hand like 85. Maybe a sticky 98. Since he's not raising turn all-in, maybe he's not donking river with his 8x hands either. If you have a LAG image he could be expecting you to bet. That really shifts the equation if he can have a lot of 8x.
I don't know what the 3-4 minute tank call means. I guess it means he basically flipped a coin in his head. So you're getting a lot of folds from his chops. Maybe 50%.

Everything that beats the board and once in a blue moon a hand that maybe reduces the combos of 8x in opponent’s range. In this case, leaning towards never because your image is probably trash ATM short term variance matters to players.

Sorry, but I maintain the OP had a case of FPS and got lucky. No more, no less.

Both you played this terribly.

That is what I thought as well when he showed the 55. I was really surprised and I am not really sure why he slow-played a 5x-hand on the turn here if he folds the river (especially since there´s a flush draw out there - if he sees monsters under the bed, then almost half the deck is bad for his hand OTR), however, it is very good information going forward. So yes, after he showed that he played 55, my evaluation of very few 8x combos didn´t seem correct any more - he shows up with 8x here more often than I had expected for sure, although I still think it won´t be THAT often.

With regards to my play on previous streets, yeah, it wasn´t good. Never said it was. But can´t agree that river is FPS - I still think it is a profitable play here in this spot.

Usually when we make a PSB with a polarized range we are supposed to have 2:1 value to bluff ratio to make opponent indifferent to calling or folding with bluffcatchers.

But here it’s a bit different because villain is calling to chop with his bluffcatchers, so his pot odds aren’t 2:1 — instead, for a PSB, his pot odds are 1:2. Which means our value:bluff ratio could be as high as 1:2 for a PSB on river.

Even for this 3/4PSB sizing, we may be allowed to have more bluffs than value.

So if we have 12 combos of value here with 85 and another 16 combos of 98, we could allow ourselves A LOT of bluffs if our goal is to make opponent indifferent with bluffcatchers.

Of course this isn’t a polarized spot because Vil can have 8x as well. I do wonder what the GTO solution would do on such a board in a wide spot like sb v Bb SRP.

Agree about the image considerations.