Quote:
Originally Posted by ChaosInEquilibrium
This basically boils down to a math problem but the important part is obviously the reads (how often V has 8x, how often V folds a chop).
let
X = pot size
B = bet size
F = percentage chance that V folds a chop if we bet.
P = percentage chance that V has an 8 (and calls the jam).
The formula is the following:
If F > 2BP/(X(1-P)) then EV(jam) is more than EV(check)
If F < 2BP/(X(1-P)) then EV(check) is more than EV jam.
F= 2BP/(X(1-P)) is breakeven — it doesn’t matter what you do
We know X=430 and B=300.
So breakeven fold equity is F= 600P/(430(1-P)) = 1.4 * P/(1-P)
If you think he has an 8 like 20% of the time then P=.2 and the breakeven F value is =1.4 .2/.8 =.35 and you need him to fold a chop more than 35% of the time to profit.
If you think V has an 8 only 5% of the time then the breakeven value is F=1.4 .05/.95=.07. So you need him to fold a chop more than 7% of the time.
If you think the guy is scared money and he donks a lot with his strong hands, then a jam is automatic.
Otherwise it’s a guessing game.
What ended up happening?
Thanks. This is a really helpful post.
What happened was that I jammed, he tanked for like 3-4 minutes and then folded 55 face up. I mean, at the table, as soon as that five hit and he checked it to me, my read was that this is a wonderful spot to be in since I basically can't lose, unless he has precisely 85 which he for some reason did not c/r the turn with, or 98 (although I think he will fold 98 to the turn bet at least a part of the time with the flush draw appearing on the turn as well).
In this spot I got really lucky, I was out of line on the flop (I think I had Qs3s, or Qs6s, something along those lines) and picked up some equity with a flush draw on the turn (and figured that it is a good card to double barrel, since it isn't really a card that favours a lot of hands he would check-call the flop with). After he checked the river I was pretty sure that the risk of him having an eight here is quite low, so basically pushing should be printing, as he is forced to call for a split.
I was actually surprised to see him turn up with 55 here, since I've seen him fastplay strong hands (or hands he perceives as strong) in previous pots, in previous sessions, and was kind of expecting him to re-raise a straight on the turn. Not sure if he was somehow scared of 85 or wanting to see a "safe" river before committing to playing for stacks, or if he was trying to trap the LAG donkey (wouldn't have worked though, as soon as he called I was cursing myself for not taking a free card and basically decided to shut down on the river unimproved) here. And trapping the LAG donkey by checking three times and then folding to a push also doesn't make that much sense, does the LAG donkey really show up with an eight often enough on this board for folding to be profitable? Knowing me, I'd say no, since the LAG donkey thinks he needs to push his entire range here...