This is not the only point you should take away...the majority here cautioned another line...

I too used to worry too much about balancing at LLSNL...took a little while to realise it's just not worth it

Fold pre
If this villian really is a thinking player and is playing proper tag, then AJo isnt doing so good against an opening range from mp (utg+2) 7 handed

Or 3bet

Call sucks

In general, can't we represent a stronger hand by checking behind on the K82r flop? As one poster said, it would make sense for us to check behind a very dry flop with 888 or 222. A backdoor draw or set on the turn may also be checking behind on this flop. Even KQs/KJs may check behind on the flop in hopes of opening up villain's calling range on later streets in the event that he has a middling pair.

The other benefit to checking behind this flop with the intent to bluff later streets is that it makes the overall bluff cheaper since we've cut out a street of betting. We arrive at roughly the same price to check/float/bluff raise or check/bet 2/3/bet 3/4 as we would to bet 2/3/bet 1/2/bet 1/2, and the first two lines ought to work a lot more often and therefore be more efficient.

In this particular case, villain hoped to c/c 99 three streets with the logic that a) he can have the best hand when we value bet 8x or b) we can sometimes be trying to push him off a medium strength hand with ATC. It should be a lot scarier for him to see us bring the heat on turn or river rather than the flop (in some ways using Baluga Whale Theorem against him).

if your read was right, then your only mistake was not dropping the hammer on the river. seems like a pretty easy play. checking any street would be losing value. the only questions are.. how big of a bet can you get him to call on the turn (you want to get called for the most since it's essentially a value bet)? and what size bet on the river maximizes your EV? an all-in bet that gets folds 99.99 percent is pretty darn hard to beat for EV there!!!

and, btw... not taking a bet, bet, bet line with 888/222 here is ridiculous, given the assumption that villain's range is what it is also. only difference would be to bet 1/2 pot on river to get the crying call rather than the fold.

what do you guys think? you set up a bunch of assumptions, but then didn't take a max value line, it seems. i mean a TAG that takes a c/c, c/c line is saying "i want a cheap showdown". why give it to him??

An all-in bet here means firing roughly $250 into a pot of $104. So risking 2.5 to gain 1, we need the play to work 71.4% of the time. And it won't necessarily work the 99.9% that you suggest. Some players are more likely to call a huge overbet than a 3/4 psb here since the 2.5x overbet looks like such a weird attempt to get value.

As far as not going bet/bet/bet with a flopped set, a lot of that has to do with the dryness of the flop. Aside from two outers, there are literally no draws that can hit on the turn, so from villain's perspective we might be giving him a free card in the hopes that he will pair his AQ/AJ/AT/QJ/JT/etc or open up his calling range a bit with his pocket pairs. Not necessarily saying that's what I would do in position, but villain doesn't have to know that we would think that way. We have a losing image in the game and maybe we've decided to slowplay after not making a big hand for a really long time.

If you going to bet turn it needs to be more. Your weak bets don't look like kq, ak or a set. For your bluff to be successful it needs to tell a story.