Quote:
Originally Posted by TeamKB
if your read was right, then your only mistake was not dropping the hammer on the river. seems like a pretty easy play. checking any street would be losing value. the only questions are.. how big of a bet can you get him to call on the turn (you want to get called for the most since it's essentially a value bet)? and what size bet on the river maximizes your EV? an all-in bet that gets folds 99.99 percent is pretty darn hard to beat for EV there!!!
and, btw... not taking a bet, bet, bet line with 888/222 here is ridiculous, given the assumption that villain's range is what it is also. only difference would be to bet 1/2 pot on river to get the crying call rather than the fold.
what do you guys think? you set up a bunch of assumptions, but then didn't take a max value line, it seems. i mean a TAG that takes a c/c, c/c line is saying "i want a cheap showdown". why give it to him??
An all-in bet here means firing roughly $250 into a pot of $104. So risking 2.5 to gain 1, we need the play to work 71.4% of the time. And it won't necessarily work the 99.9% that you suggest. Some players are more likely to call a huge overbet than a 3/4 psb here since the 2.5x overbet looks like such a weird attempt to get value.
As far as not going bet/bet/bet with a flopped set, a lot of that has to do with the dryness of the flop. Aside from two outers, there are literally no draws that can hit on the turn, so from villain's perspective we might be giving him a free card in the hopes that he will pair his AQ/AJ/AT/QJ/JT/etc or open up his calling range a bit with his pocket pairs. Not necessarily saying that's what I would do in position, but villain doesn't have to know that we would think that way. We have a losing image in the game and maybe we've decided to slowplay after not making a big hand for a really long time.