This is 1/2 NL 300 max

Hero: Young white. Losing image tonight. Can't get anything going. One cooler and some not so great play mixed with no cards leaves me in the game for $700 with a $300 stack. Since getting wacked around pretty good at the beginning of the session hero has TAGed it up quite a bit. Probably viewed as TAG leaning towards tight at the moment. Hero has played with V a couple times but they were both about 4-5 months ago. Didn't play a ton with him just maybe a couple hours each time. Not sure in V remembers me. V is definitely competent but far from Phil Ivey. V has shown the ability to bluff, especially when weakness is shown. He has gotten called on a river bluff where everyone checked the turn and he bombs river. V has a few leaks that I've picked up on but none noteworthy pertaining to this hand.

V: Young white, maybe mid 20s. He is on his laptop at the table 4 tabling online. Started out the session a little aggro but has since calmed down since he busted out his laptop and started multi tabling. Seems to really have TAGed it up.

Eff stacks $300

7 handed, it folds to V in MP he makes it 10. Hero in the cutoff has AJ. Hero calls. Everyone else folds.

Flop is K82r. V checks. This kind of surprised me since he was cbetting a fairly high percentage. I even recall him cbetting into 4 or 5 players with something that couldn't beat top pair at showdown. I figure he cbets all his Ks and better, and all his air. His checks screams weakish value hand that wants to get to showdown. I feel A high is no good so I must strong arm this pot. Hero bets $15. V calls.

Pot $50.

K823 on the turn completing the rainbow. V checks again. I'm almost certain V has middling pair type of hand, maybe a weak K trying to pot control? I fire $27 hoping this will fold out quite a few hands that beat me. V calls.

Pot $104

K8234 on river

V checks. What do we do here? I am almost certain V can't beat a King. And I feel my image is super tag to the point where I could easily have a K or better. Should I make a valueish looking bet of $45-$55 here? Should I always be prepared to 3 barrel here with my flop plan and reads?

I'm sorry - but this line of thinking doesn't make sense to me? If you're thinking he is c-betting so much air so much why are you suddenly assuming he will c-bet TP?

Most likely the opposite here.

Why?
We don't know that yet...

Now we know...check and prepare to muck

+1 I don't see V folding on the river here just check back

Your sizing is screaming weakness to a thinking player

Bet like 1/3 to half pot on river

Does villain think you'd go for value with a hand like KJ on the river, or show it down? Since most villains at 1/2 don't bet three streets there, he's probably not going to give you credit for a king.

Do you bet your sets on the flop? Most players don't, so he's not going to put you on that.

Are there any two-pair hands you call a raise preflop with? No.

If I'm in villain's shoes, you're repping absolutely nothing, and I just got max value out of my TT. Check and move on to the next hand.

Basically if you bet this river I want your polarizing behavior at my table

Checkback river

Meh. With a losing image, I probably check this back on the turn.

Otherwise, not bad. $55 on river.

I think he cbets his garbage and obviously his strong hands that he wants value from like Ks AA and sets. Maybe KK is the only strong value hand I could see him checking here. And I don't think he open raises small pairs but it's always possible. He has done some open limping.

Right away his check tells me pot control let's get to showdown

I would cleary take the same like with K10 or better and would go for 3 streets of thin value with his line. Betting my sets here every time. I called a raise after playing super snug tag recently. Why can't I have a K here?

Can you elaborate?

Check back. Board is dry here and river didn't change anything. You may be right that he has a hand that wants to show down. However he has called twice, so even if you're right why would he fold now. If A8 or 99 made it this far I don't think he's folding. Could also have a weak king that is now two pair.

But he's not picking this up - perhaps he's not even paying attention to you this time? Or if he is he smells weakness and is calling you down with a A high bluff catcher

Hero checks back river V shows 99

I often play hands like JJ just like this and am nearly always folding to the 3rd barrel barring a really strange situation

Where's the "Strong arm" part?

Otf, you bet 15 into ~20. Not bad. After rake you're probably close to pot-size.

Ott, however, (around the time you decide to "strong arm", it's 27 into 50. Half pot here is not strong arm, that's weak value. Expect to get called by 2nd pair here allot.

Now otr you're contemplating another half-sized pot otr. Seriously, noone's going to fold to this. I'm making a crying call with an underpair here in this spot. (I know, there's no underpair to this board, but you get what I mean).

This is what the other poster meant I by sizing tells.

So what sizing do you like?

On a bone dry board with 0 draws out there betting half pot is pretty standard for me. I would do this with my Ks, nuts, and air. If I had KJ+ I want him to call with all his small pair 8s, 99s-QQ. I think betting 2/3 or more will blow everything away that I want value from. I tried to make this look like value. I was scared if I bet 35-40 on this bone dry board it would scream bluff.

So if you have KJ+ you are firing 35-40 on turn on this board?

The fact that ppl make crying calls with underpairs is part of the reason why llsnl is so profitable and I would never take this line against a rec player. I wouldn't expect a thinking player to look me up with an underpair with a tight image

I think you may be leveling yourself a bit. You say you'd always bet three streets with Kx, which is probably a good line against this thinking LLSNL Villain. The problem is that the vast majority of LLSNL players don't do that, and therefore he probably perceives you as repping very little, and is ~always calling a river bet after calling flop & turn.

I think you may be leveling yourself a bit. You say the vast majority of players won't go for three streets of value with Kx here, which it true. But you also say that that is the reason why they will be calling you, which it's not. They call you because they aren't thinking about any of these things. They are just thinking about their cards (if even that).

But you're not betting for value, you're trying to blow him off the hand.

And yeah, if I've got TPGK and I think I'm good, I'm going to bet 3/4psb+. For value, and to protect my hand. By betting 1/2psb, you lay 3:1 pot odds, so V only has to be good 25% of the time to make the call profitable, ergo my "crying call" statement from earlier.

The other guy was right: you are leveling yourself. This "I know you know I know" thinking is all good at 10/25 or whatever, but at 1/2 it's way better to just play straight up. When it's hammer time, bring the hammer.

the thread is called "bluffing thinking players", and your line was to double barrel weak sizing and shy away from the last bullet otr.

imo you made a good read and found the worst possible line.

You think villain is calling a ship it in overbet with 99-JJ OTR??

I was talking about THIS Villain specifically, who OP gave credit as being a thinking player. Obv what I said doesn't apply to Level 1 opponents.

Bulls thanks for the feedback and you make a good point.

With my strong value hands I probably do bet a touch over 1/2 pot on the turn on a dry board, maybe a little more, but you're right I'm trying to make this guy fold so I should be firing big and not be worried about my bet looking like a bluff. Sometimes I'm too worried about balancing, which I know I really shouldn't be at LLSNL. I should be playing more straight up in most spots where there is little to no history between villain and I.

I think betting 35-40 turn, and 75-85 river is a better line and should get a high % of folds from this villain type with no significant history between us.

+1

Also, how does the 4 change his range here?

It doesn't and is a brick

If he called you ott, the 4 won't make him fold to a weak half pot bet otr