Reading over my last comment, it seemed harsh. Wasn't my intention....

I agree with Ryno....the $30 bet doesn't seem to be a blocker bet...seems to be more of a raise inducing type bet. Blocker bets would tend to be more around $80-$100...

I believe you have to take Q8, 89, Q9 out of his range considering he's just calling you down on the flop and turn IP on a draw heavy board. I don't see many LLNL players laying down in this spot...two pair or better is not folding in this spot majority of the time. Just see it as a -EV play....

To me, this just screams "I hit my flush and everyone knows it, I hope he at least calls this $30"

I could be wrong, but I have played a LOT of live hands over the last 5-6 months and I've seen this before...especially with these 2/5 guys who are just waiting for a seat. They aren't afraid to call what we consider to be large bets just to try to run us down, and then when they hit they make a small bet like this hoping we will either call or spazz, and then 3 hands later they move to the 2/5 and we are left steaming

This is my unofficial, no logical poker theory used, observation of poker rooms

Kb sounds like u have your mind already made up and are trying to direct the conversation in a way that justifies your reads and what you did. Congrats, all intelligent conversation will go out the window now.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using 2+2 Forums

When I first read the post I thought villain may have A 9 for top pair top kicker on flop or A Q for two overs on flop top pair top kicker on turn both hands making 2 pair on river

If I was in op position with that read I don't HATE the raise to 175 as I think it gets through enough of the time

My opinion is the bet of 30 is hoping for a call and therefore a cheap end to the hand. If he checks he could face a large river bet that he does not want to call for that reason the raise to 175 is presenting him with the very problem he is trying to avoid

I do think you are only getting called by better but don't think you are getting called by 2 pair

Good luck at the tables

Did you mean that you don't think you have the best hand here? So you don't think you are bluffing with the best hand very often?

I think that if he does have two pair, It almost certainly includes an A. How would he get to the river with two pair otherwise?

Another problem is that you say Villain is an thinking player and your line reps extremely thin. You are repping like 4 specific combo's of hands here OTR. I wouldn't expect Villain to fold aces up here too often.

It is also my personal experience that players who make blocking bets often call after they get raised. I frequently exploit this tendency by over betting. Villain thinks "oh he must be bluffing!" and calls... But I'm never bluffing lol.

All things considered, I would call river.

I think you might be just trying to justify your play on this thread but in the long run at LLNL, this play will cost you money. Have a feeling this is the 1% of the time, he folds and shows you Q8.

Results???

Just an observation on the $30 bet to induce a raise

Surely you would only make that play if you had the stone cold nuts

If you river the flush but only the 3rd nuts for example, you bet $30 and are raised you have put yourself in a tricky situation

good luck at the tables

Unless it is obvious hero doesn't have flush

It is obvious to us because Hero told us he had Kings lol

Is it OBVIOUS that our hero doesn't have a flush
Isnt it possible that he bet the flop with a draw continued on the turn after villain checks a second time and hit on the river

That's not a very useful post OSU. blanket statements of fact "it's bad" don't help me much. Third time now I'm offering you a chance to delve into the reasoning behind your recommendations. I have been very explicit about my hand reading multiple times in this thread. Would you care to find fault with my assumptions and give your reasons? If so, I'm interested. Thanks

I explained my reasoning and thought process perfectly fine in my first 3 posts....not sure what else you want to hear?? You want to try and bluff LLNL players off top two pair, straights and flushes....it's lighting money on fire...does this need explaining?? I told you the range you shouldn't expect him to be showing up with and why he wouldn't be showing up with that. You're thought process of how you came up with 2 pair prior to the river, simply doesn't make sense as I've stated. Did you post on here to argue how your play makes sense or do you actually want constructive criticism??? I have posted a lot more info than "it's bad."

Also stated what the $30 bet indicated normally...you've said this was a blocker bet but I'm stating the bet is too small to be a blocker bet and is generally used to induce by somewhat thinking players.

We are missing info.

What does V think of hero? Does he view you as capable of bluff spew?

Betsiizng was off pretty good the whole way. Raise more pre. When you bet on the large size on flo and turn (and have possibly the wrong image) he could call with fairly strong hands only.


If my image would suggest that my raises are real, then i would ship it. Its easy for him to call and check you out for the price you gave.

There is a ton to consider along the way b4 doing the shove, but thats why its always how well you play postflop that makes the difference in superb plays. No question there is a fine line between genius and insanity, and the same is true of world class plays and spew. The world class play takes the thin lines but only after all the t's are crossed.

If you worry about it looking like a bluff and now he hero calls you, I would say remember this. There are only a handful of players who will go broke at the table on a hero call when the hero could easily be simply making a flush and going allin.

Also keep in mind that this is a thinking villain right? Well if he has a medium flush your shove is going to blow him out the water. His tiny smells a bit like a flush however with his MO I am discounting heavily. I think i get plenty of folds enough here on river.

For him to bet I think he shows 2 pair a little too often for me.


If all the stars are lined up I would shipit.

Otherwise...
Nothing wrong with taking the SDV and seeing what he is capable of.

I think you mentioned V could have two pair which is why you bluffed.

I DO think for V to bet he likely has two pair. Sets? doubt it. Flush? Maybe.

Whether V folds two pair is your determination. If he is decent, then he will if you shove. Not otherwise though.

Many people talk about decent players here, then show lines the V takes making him not very good. Its your judgment whether he folds for X bet. YOu will live or die by your judgment here.

I bet most "decent" players will fold two pair here which is why i default to shoving.

Have no history with villain. He probably views me as a typical taggy 1/2 player. Fwiw, my friend and pro poker player/author said he would "snap shove" the river.

As to the spoiler. Villain hemmed and hawed. "Good bet. Guess you have te flush" as he mucked 98.

High variance play....glad you took down the pot. I do believe this is a rare hand that he shows up with what he did and that he didn't call still. Agree that a shove works a higher percentage of the time as your friend stated in these spots if you're going to bluff at it.

OSU. i don't think I'm ever getting called because I don't think anything that would call me is ever betting 30 leading river. What hands do you have in his range that bet 30/call big raise? And why?

I also agree that a shove is better. It's probably not much in the range that will call for 175 but fold for 350, but "why win sometimes when you can win always".

But on point... winning or losing isn't my concern. I'm interested in making accurate assumptions and then the correct plays based on those assumptions. Pretty sure my play was correct, given my assumptions. So, what I'm comin to you guys for is input on my assumptions based on your experience of live players with the profile I give.

That is the value of this forum. 1. Compare assumptions mostly. 2. On rare ocassions help someone unfamiliar with poker math how to come up with the right play based on assumptions.

So, one last time... What about my assumptions do you think is inaccurate and why?

TTHRIC. OP, in the future, don't engage so much. You turned thread into an argument. This is particularly bad:
OSU told you in post 26 what he thought was wrong with your assumptions.

locked.