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Bluff Raise Gone Wrong. Bad Timing? Bluff Raise Gone Wrong. Bad Timing?

12-09-2015 , 02:49 AM
200NL on weeknight

Table is considerably loose, 1 or 2 nits.

UTG Straddles

UTG + 1 raises to $20 ($300 stack) Very aggressive, plays strong hands quick, raising a decently wide range. Like to take advantage of what he perceives to be weakness such as being checked to on 2 streets, etc.

UTG + 3 Calls ($280 stack) Loose player

Hero is on the button. I call ($210 stack) Been playing quite tight I hold 10c8c

BB Calls ($400 stack) Nit


FLOP

4d8sJc

Checks around.


TURN

Ks

Checks to initial raiser, leads for $35

Folds to me on button, I raise to $85.

Folds back to the villain who led turn for 35 and he puts me all in.

I fold, he shows Ad9c


Did I play badly?

Last edited by darkrage555; 12-09-2015 at 03:11 AM.
Bluff Raise Gone Wrong. Bad Timing? Quote
12-09-2015 , 03:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by darkrage555
200NL on weeknight

Table is considerably loose, 1 or 2 nits.

UTG Straddles

UTG + 1 raises to $20 ($300 stack) Very aggressive, plays strong hands quick, raising a decently wide range. Like to take advantage of what he perceives to be weakness such as being checked to on 2 streets, etc.

UTG + 3 Calls ($280 stack) Loose player

Hero is on the button. I call ($210 stack) Been playing quite tight I hold 10c8c

BB Calls ($400 stack) Nit


FLOP

4d8sJc

Checks around.


TURN

Ks

Checks to initial raiser, leads for $35

Folds to me on button, I raise to $85.

Folds back to the villain who led turn for 35 and he puts me all in.

I fold, he shows Ad9c


Did I play badly?
Can you talk about why you wanted to raise here? I just don't see the point. We know that he likes to take advantage of what he perceives as weakness so why not just try and bluff catch here with showdown value rather than reopen the pot vs aggro player and give him the last move?
Bluff Raise Gone Wrong. Bad Timing? Quote
12-09-2015 , 03:38 AM
UTG didn't defend his straddle pre?

I don't get it. If you think he's mostly FOS then you can just call intending to call most rivers. You have SDV so there's no reason to force his bluffs to fold. Also, you have very little equity when called. You're not even getting better hands to fold, as villain should at least call with any Kx or better when he's bluffing the turn a lot and the board is wet with a lot of draws you could be raising.

There are much better hands in your range to bluff with such as any draw, but I would still just float a lot with draws especially given a decent price. Raising all of your draws here would be terrible.

You are repping pretty thin value-wise (KJs, sets that checked the flop for some reason), while there are tons of possible semi-bluffs in your range. Your raise size is pretty tiny as well. Villain's range is uncapped and yours looks weak so villain can expect a lot of folds with his shove.
Bluff Raise Gone Wrong. Bad Timing? Quote
12-09-2015 , 03:42 AM
I thought that my perceived range, while I was playing pretty tight I did show I was capable of calling with some speculative hand. I never have him on a pair of jacks ++ given that he checks the flop and doesn't by any means have a balanced checking range.

I have been known to slowplay some sets and 2-pair type hands especially on that kind of board texture, despite it being multi-way. I have K8, 88, QT and maybe a few other combos that are checking back the flop.

The only combos I have in his range that my raise puts to a difficult decision is a turned two pair of K8 which I block. I thought that given the above, he would play QK, KJ, KT, AK as he did, however my bluff raise puts a ton of pressure on those hands to fold, especially given he's out of position to someone with the betting lead, he's likey drawing close to dead if I have any value hands and if I do have a value hand I'm jamming on almost any river.


Sorry if my explanation doesn't make a ton of sense, here trying to learn. :P

Edit: Yeah, I do acknowledge I gave him a really good price to peel with his marginals that sometimes do have me beat. I should've raised larger if I wanted to bluff in this spot which is probably questionable to begin with.
Bluff Raise Gone Wrong. Bad Timing? Quote
12-09-2015 , 04:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by darkrage555


The only combos I have in his range that my raise puts to a difficult decision is a turned two pair of K8 which I block. I thought that given the above, he would play QK, KJ, KT, AK as he did, however my bluff raise puts a ton of pressure on those hands to fold,
I think it's way too optimistic to expect super aggro to fold A-top/A/good on this board. If you don't feel like you can bluff catch here we should be folding IMO
Quote:
Originally Posted by darkrage555

I have been known to slowplay some sets and 2-pair type hands especially on that kind of board texture, despite it being multi-way. I have K8, 88, QT and maybe a few other combos that are checking back the flop.
Just wanted to add to make sure you know the player you are up against is capable of knowing this and applying it before you try it. Just because you may have showed down a few hands like this doesn't mean he was paying attention.

Last edited by Sommerset; 12-09-2015 at 04:07 AM.
Bluff Raise Gone Wrong. Bad Timing? Quote
12-09-2015 , 04:21 AM
He doesn't give you a jack and reads your turn raise as the flush draw, while trying to rep AK himself. That's the only explanation, given the fact that he likes to pounce on weakness.

Wrong time to bluff? Not necessarily. You just picked the wrong guy to do it to.

This time, it's just that simple.

EDIT: Your one and only move is to 2-bet all-in against his $35 bet. With $150 in the pot moving in for $155 more is not going to be called with anything less than the king. If you don't read him for a king and suspect he's making a move, this is the time to close your eyes, wear a helmet with a jockstrap, and ship it.

Last edited by Hardball47; 12-09-2015 at 04:29 AM.
Bluff Raise Gone Wrong. Bad Timing? Quote
12-09-2015 , 04:28 AM
You call almost a tenth your stack pre with T8s?

I fold pre, call turn, call most rivers.

AP shove, you've put in half your stack.

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Bluff Raise Gone Wrong. Bad Timing? Quote
12-09-2015 , 12:39 PM
fold pre
Bluff Raise Gone Wrong. Bad Timing? Quote
12-09-2015 , 12:50 PM
I always don't understand why would ppl bluff when they have a show-down value hand...
Bluff Raise Gone Wrong. Bad Timing? Quote
12-09-2015 , 01:13 PM
Ignoring results, very obvious fold pre. Now knowing that this player is raising too wide, the adjustment is to raise more often with bad hands with some playability (like the one you're holding) and to cold call more hands with good hot and cold equity like KJo.

If you think this guy is bluffing a lot on the turn, what's the point in raising? You haz pair, and he's not turning a hand stronger than yours into a bluff at this point. If you don't think he's bluffing a lot, why are you raising? He's repping a K, and you can't credibly rep a hand stronger than a K since you checked the flop in position.
Bluff Raise Gone Wrong. Bad Timing? Quote
12-09-2015 , 01:17 PM
Also, raising A9o utg+1 isn't decently wide, it's super wide. I really hope you sacked up after you saw his bluff and started 3 betting him every time he opened.
Bluff Raise Gone Wrong. Bad Timing? Quote
12-09-2015 , 02:58 PM
^ Just to confirm, hot cold equity is your equity if you see all three streets?
Bluff Raise Gone Wrong. Bad Timing? Quote
12-09-2015 , 05:05 PM
fold pre

yes banana, hot cold equity is the equity if we saw all three streets and there was no betting
Bluff Raise Gone Wrong. Bad Timing? Quote
12-09-2015 , 10:27 PM
What math indicates I should fold pre? It is just about 10% of my stack, but I'm getting a great price on the button with T8s, a hand that plays well multi way and my call gives the blinds and the straddler an even better price to peel. The initial raiser is also the most aggro player at the table who clearly doesn't mind stacking off with air bluffs or thin value hands.

Again, I'm new here and to poker just trying to improve, not saying anyone's wrong, I like the constructive feedback you guys are providing
Bluff Raise Gone Wrong. Bad Timing? Quote
12-09-2015 , 10:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by samspeedstar
I always don't understand why would ppl bluff when they have a show-down value hand...
I also wanted to add that I thought this player is going to be shoving MOST rivers and my hand is still very vulnerable with a lot of his range going to the river. Nevertheless if I call turn I'm folding to his river shove which yes I do realize is going to be fairly polarized.
Bluff Raise Gone Wrong. Bad Timing? Quote
12-09-2015 , 11:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by darkrage555
I also wanted to add that I thought this player is going to be shoving MOST rivers and my hand is still very vulnerable with a lot of his range going to the river. Nevertheless if I call turn I'm folding to his river shove which yes I do realize is going to be fairly polarized.
Why are you folding to a river shove? There's nothing wrong with calling a big bet with a marginal hand if your opponent is probably bluffing.
Bluff Raise Gone Wrong. Bad Timing? Quote
12-09-2015 , 11:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by darkrage555
What math indicates I should fold pre? It is just about 10% of my stack, but I'm getting a great price on the button with T8s, a hand that plays well multi way.
You aren't necessarily getting better odds just because more people are in the pot. You get better odds on your money, but you will win the pot less frequently.

Against UTG+1 having A5o+, A2s+, K7s+, KTo+, Q8s+, J9s+, 22+ and a bunch of suited connectors and the other 2 players having top 25% of hands, you have 21% equity against all of these players, which is not a good enough price to call getting ~3:1, especially when rake is considered. You also don't have implied odds. For evidence of this, look at how this hand played out.

To play this hand profitably, you need to win more than your share of equity and make very few mistakes postflop compared to your opponents, and since you have the button you may be able to do that. The more important factor than position, though, is to be a lot better than your opponents. Before you call with any hand preflop, instead of saying "pot odds!" or "implied odds!" think "what are my opponents doing wrong that will allow me to play this hand profitably, and will they make those mistakes often enough for me to put this money in as a dog." If you can't come up with a good answer, just fold. If the answer is "opens too many hands preflop," 3 bet.
Bluff Raise Gone Wrong. Bad Timing? Quote
12-09-2015 , 11:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by darkrage555
200NL on weeknight

Table is considerably loose, 1 or 2 nits.

UTG Straddles

UTG + 1 raises to $20 ($300 stack) Very aggressive, plays strong hands quick, raising a decently wide range. Like to take advantage of what he perceives to be weakness such as being checked to on 2 streets, etc.

UTG + 3 Calls ($280 stack) Loose player

Hero is on the button. I call ($210 stack) Been playing quite tight I hold 10c8c

BB Calls ($400 stack) Nit


FLOP

4d8sJc

Checks around.


TURN

Ks

Checks to initial raiser, leads for $35

Folds to me on button, I raise to $85.

Folds back to the villain who led turn for 35 and he puts me all in.

I fold, he shows Ad9c


Did I play badly?
My two cents.

Pre-flop:

I probably would fold pre-flop with 108. It is a marginal drawing where you need huge implied odds to play, maybe around 20 to 1. Villain only had around $300 (15 to 1). Stack not big enough to justify a call despite great position.

In addition, your hand is not much ahead of his range even if he is loose.

Flop:
Since you stated that you have been playing tight, it may be a good spot for you to take a stab at the pot, maybe around half the pot or 3/4 of the pot.

Turn:

Not sure what I would do here. Sorry.
Bluff Raise Gone Wrong. Bad Timing? Quote
12-09-2015 , 11:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hardball47
He doesn't give you a jack and reads your turn raise as the flush draw, while trying to rep AK himself. That's the only explanation, given the fact that he likes to pounce on weakness.

Wrong time to bluff? Not necessarily. You just picked the wrong guy to do it to.

This time, it's just that simple.

EDIT: Your one and only move is to 2-bet all-in against his $35 bet. With $150 in the pot moving in for $155 more is not going to be called with anything less than the king. If you don't read him for a king and suspect he's making a move, this is the time to close your eyes, wear a helmet with a jockstrap, and ship it.
Haha. I like your post.
Bluff Raise Gone Wrong. Bad Timing? Quote
12-10-2015 , 12:26 AM
Let's say I had QJs or JTs is it still a fold pre ?
Bluff Raise Gone Wrong. Bad Timing? Quote
12-10-2015 , 01:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by darkrage555
What math indicates I should fold pre?
pretty much all the math that goes into IO. With 3 other players you'll need a miracle flop to show profit. Just imagine if you did this 100 times. By the turn you'd have nothing 55 times, 45 times you have a pair where about 20-25 of those times your pair is no good, and 5 times you make 2pair+. Even if you clean house those 5 times it shouldn't be hard to do a quick calc..

-55 (20$) - 20 (20$) + 5 (270$) + 20 (x $) = 0

x = 7.50$

Meaning the 20% (generously) of times you have a pair and its best on the turn and he bets out 35, you need to be able to win 7.50 to break even. If he has 25% equity to the river and it goes x/x then you make 10$ over 100 trials or ten cents per hand and that was being back of the napkin generous.

Ten cents every time... for perfect play.

By your justification we should be ready to call off our entire stack pre with T8s if enough other people are in the hand.

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Bluff Raise Gone Wrong. Bad Timing? Quote
12-10-2015 , 01:11 AM
I would suggest you download flopzilla and look at how these speculative hands flop.

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