1/3

Hero (500): 20's white dude in a cap. Still has a good image to this point in the night, playing Tight Semi Aggressive. Main V hasn't seen me show down a single hand yet. All wins he's seen have been when I was PFR.

V (450): late 20's black dude. I think he's a competent player. Made one play I interpreted as a squeeze. Raises pre too often to being playing TAG, post play is more going for feel than pure aggression. C-bets and turn bets look like feelers to me. Haven't seen him show down yet. Edit: I've seen him donk into the PFR <1/2PSSB as well. Not 100% what that means, think it again is a feeler.

My reads on him to this point are weak.

The Hand:

Hero QJ Button
Main V is First to act pre flop and post flop.

V limps, 1 more limp, Hero raises to 25, both call.

Flop (~75): KJ7
Checks to Hero, Hero Bets 50, both call

Turn (225): 3
Check, Check, Hero Checks

River (225): 10
V leads for 100, Fold, Hero?

I'm sitting here thinking... AQ? No way, he raises that pre for sure. What else can he bet on the river thats not a bluff? I haven't seen a hand of his to this point. I don't know whats in his Limp UTG+1 then call range. Can I convince myself he has Q9 maybe J10? Or is this a good chance to bluff catch?

Fold lol. He doesn't have many bluffs and we beat no value hands. T otr is going to give many of his bluffs/draws showdown value.

Lol.. was hoping it was a bit tougher than that man!

Players bluff all the time on the river when I check behind on the turn. It doesn't matter how thin they are repping, doesn't stop them. I understand he has to get through another V and me, but that doesn't stop the bluffs in these games.
I really think all that beats me here is Q9 and maybe J10. Anyway, this was my read while at the table. I guess its an amazingly easy decision from unbiased eyes.

Bet less on flop or check. Too many combos of their range when calling $25 pre are never folding.

His range is going to be narrower when it's multiway on the flop. Also you're like at the bottom of your value range on the turn. It's so easy for him to have a king or better jack or even like 77. Also the sizing reaks of value otr.

Letting it go on river without much thought, especially with the T on the river. Adds more 2 pair hands in both of your ranges, plus completes a straight draw. These make it much more likely he's betting for value than attempting to bluff, which is the only thing you beat.

25 pre is my standard at this table... goes 4-5way possibly. If that changes anything.

this is a standard fold, as noted. I think a call is defensible:

a. while you haven't said it, you seem to be reading him as polarized and weak in this spot

b. pot's laying you 3.5:1 which means you need to be right 29%, which doesn't seem unreasonable

c. call flop, lead river when turn checks behind is the dictionary definition of the OOP float, which if anything is done too often by live feel players with LAGish tendencies. clubs, T9, and 7x are def well represented in vill's range to see the river.

I think there are def bluffs in vill's range here, which means you should bluff-catch some non-0% of the time. hard to know whether your read of vill is correct in this instance since you were there and we weren't.

a few things come to mind in response:

- accurate and fair self-assessment plays a crucial role in LLSNL. your instincts seem to be telling you to bluff-catch this spot, so the question is how good are your instincts? being able to honestly assess one's feel for the game in certain situations helps in determining when to depart from standard lines.

- there's some inherent value in this call from the information you get about his hand. you're 150BB deep with him and have position on him, and based on your characterization, knowing his hand here might give you some future strategic advantage.

- there could be some merit in a river raise/shove. you rep KT, JT, TT, and AQ convincingly. a case could be made that you rep all monsters except Q9 and decided to slowplay turn. not sure you can get him off his KT+, but he could/should find a fold with JT. based on your description seems like he should be able to get away from Kx (suited) at a minimum which I personally think is his most likely non-bluff holding. then again he might get MUBSy and fold bigger 2pairs and random 77s etc. you're also going to fold out his air which you beat anyway.

results?

Do some work and come up with a range for V on each street and then post that.

FWIW, I made a slight mistake on the flop, it was not a 7. 89 was not a made hand by river. Must have been 6 or lower.
I called... and he had Q9o...
@paradroid: Like you said, I had his range polarized at this point.
I didn't put him on a K for 2 reasons. No Donk on Flop or Turn (I think this player donks these a high percentage of times), and betting the river is not a naked K into two players I'd think. There is no better J that doesn't raise pre, that checks turn with that flush draw out there and second V in hand

If the second V calls, I'm outty 5000.

Although this may have been a bad call based very much on a read that was by no means concrete by this point, It did give me a lot of info for subsequent hands.