Hi everyone, and or those of you celebrating Easter - Happy Easter!

This is £1/£2 during the bank holiday weekend evening. Some people have walked away so we were 6 or 7 handed.

UTG straddled 5, folded to hero on the BTN, and hero opened to 15 with KT♣

BB called 15, straddle folded. Heads up and hero was the effective stack with 600.

Flop (36) : 4♣68♠

V checked, Hero checked.

Turn (36): T♠

V checked, hero bet 15 (misclick so a bit too small), V check-raise to 45, hero called.

River (126): J

V tanked for 3 seconds and bet 150 (1x 100 + 2x 25 chips if this info is somewhat useful). Hero?

About this villain：
It was first time we sat down at the same table. V was around 30ish white guy. He has his headphones on, watching a tv series on his phone, and doesn't talk to anyone.

We've seen him playing for 4 hours. His PF vpip is somewhat normal - tight. His 3-bet / vpip is lower than what we expect from a TAG.

I've seen him open QTo from UTG, and have seen him flat with AQo on the BTN. With the latter hand, the preflop situation was actually quite interesting. It was an MP (tight tourist) open, and V flats on the BTN, and SB (unsuccessful LAG, a.k.a. whale) 3-bet ( he vpips 90% and 3-bet 50%), and a good reg 4-bet from BB (his 3-bet and 4-bet range has been significantly loosened tonight given he sits on the whale's immediate left. Initial opener folded JJ (showed me before he mucked), then villain 5-bet his AQo and only whale called. AQ won against TT.

Have we seen this V bluff during the last 4 hours? Yes, probably only one hand with QJo in position on Ac2h6h 9h 3d board. At the river we checked to V, V bet 25 into a pot of just over 30. Hero called with Ah4c.

Have we seen this V make any pot-size bet or overbet on any street in the last 4 hours? No.

Hero's image: difficult to define. Hero's vpip tonight was low due to card dead. Hero has checked-raise on the flop against two Vs (including him) in a 3-bet pot. Hero has also checked-raise against a splashy whale and barrel two streets to get him off his straight draw whilst we only had two high cards. Hero was not involved in any big pot at the river. It's possible hero was seen the type who would overfold to aggression but I'm not sure.

OTTH
MY thoughts about V's turn check-raise and river overbet:

His hand was polarised so I thought it's either straight (value) or a broken FD /combo draw.

On the broken FD side, given that he hasn't 3-bet us PF, we take out AQss and AKss. AJss would have beat us by that river card as well. He could have A2ss, A3ss, A4ss, A5ss, A6ss, A7ss, A9ss. He could also have 45ss, 56ss, 67ss. Maybe he has 45o,67o but they would have to be discounted.

On the straight side, he can have 79 or 57 (discounted). I don't think either of us could have Q9 given how it was played. My biggest question is, if he does hit a straight on the turn, will he really check-raise instead of start barreling himself? And AP hero's hand was so capped, why does he overbet the river?

Thanks in advance if you'd like to share your thoughts.

(I should probably also note that although it's 1/2 there are way more competent /thinking players in my local casino who can put you in a tough spot, comparing to the loose passive tables in 1/3 and 2/5 in Vegas - let's not stereotype this villain)

I'm half watching TV, half reading forum, so I only got as far as 30ish white guy with headphones.

I know the type.

Call.

Reasoning -

He checked to us twice. He's not doing that with thick value. We mis-clicked the turn, leading him to think we're weak, so he dials up a bluff, because he's a 30ish white guy with headphones, and you're a timid woman who will over-fold to this sudden turn aggression from a wannabe alpha male.

He's an idiot.

I wouldn't think the J on the river means anything, because if he had JT, he'd have led out on the turn, and not over-bet river, because what the hell does he think you have when you make a milky small bet on the turn, and call his x/r? JT is just going to block-bet there, not over-bet. JT is not nearly strong enough.

It's probably T9 - top pair, inside straight draw, was hoping turn would check through, but you bet small, so you must be weak.

He's trying to compensate for some other shortcoming. Call. When you show him KT, tell him he's your b1tch. Bet you 10 quid he changes tables soon after.

God, I love this game.

I think he has JT and I can fold but I didnt read the essay

Turn size is good I think. I would just fold the turn.

As played folding river.

Fold turn to the cr.

Tldr Cliffs?

There are different types of 30ish white guy with headphones tho. Some look a bit nerdy, listens to music, squeezes at a certain frequency, and check raises a fair amount, and some others are with tattoos, watching soap drama with headphones, and check raise one hand in four hour. Our villain is the latter.

If I were given another chance, I would have bet bigger on the turn, but happy to hear other voices why the 15 bet on the turn was the better choice.

Thanks in advance.

Obviously the part before 'about this villain' was probably enough to make a river decision.

The rest info is for those who want to make an informed decision.

I know the type.

I stand by my earlier post. I'd call here. I expect to lose sometimes. I expect to win more. I'd expect him to attempt bluffs at a higher frequency against women, unless he's got you pegged as a calling station.

He's playing a role, that of the alpha male. He's trying to use aggression to make up for other shortcomings, in the same way wearing headphones shields him from having to engage with others, who may realize he's a bore and a dolt, incapable of having a face-to-face conversation with another human. He's pretending to have confidence.

He's not going to check-raise turn just to give up and check river because you called the raise. He committed to barreling the river before he raised turn. If you call, he'll console himself by believing he made a good play and you made a dumb call with a hand you should have folded.

Even absent any insight into the psyche of a maladjusted gen Y punk trying to project strength through aggression, I wouldn't fold your hand as played. You induced him to x/r when you mis-clicked turn.

I'd be very surprised if you didn't have the best hand on the turn, and somewhat surprised if you don't still have the best hand on the river. His line makes no sense. He'd have bet thick value on the turn after you checked back flop. He wouldn't want to scare you off by over-betting river with thick value. His line is bluffy as hell.

Please tell us you called.

With that over bet you need to call only 45pc of the time. What's your range on the river, are you in the top 45pc? If think you aren't but you tell us! Maybe you can bet the flop?

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Can you please explain how did you reach to 45% and how this number is useful? Thanks

You don't make your money at low stakes trying to pick off big river bluffs.

Sure he bluffed river a small amount on one hand, but this is a turn raise, followed by a very big river bet. Fold and don't think twice.

"(1x 100 + 2x 25 chips if this info is somewhat useful)"

It's not a strog tell, but bluffing tends to be throw more chips in pot, so if he threw 15 $10 chips, it might be more likely to be a bluff. Again that would only sway if decision was very close. In this case not close

If vill was good enough to overbet JT for value on river I think it's a fold.

But vill isn't good enough to do that. 1/2 and that turn check raise sizing is just bad imo.

Given this, it's a call. Vill is repping 97 or air (q9 is either calling or raising bigger turn) . And he'd have to check the nuts on the turn, which I don't think he's doing too often unless he has you read as someone who barrels all turns.

Also agree with docvail's live player analysis. Once vill c/r turn, he's ripping river.

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3x raise OOP is a sizing tell and id just muck the turn

3 second wait and then bet is also strong

Thanks everyone.

I folded at the river. The villain didn't know but it was actually my last orbit so I was more risk adversed and wanted to lock the win. I might call if this was earlier on in the session, because I didn't think he would check thick value flop & turn. What if I checked back the turn?

When I got home I thought for quite a few days about this hand, there were different clues to support whether he's on value or bluff. After I posted the thread, I saw more helpful thoughts so they were very much appreciated.

In the end I reached the conclusion that it's very unlikely to be a bluff (e.g. a missed Ax FD), amongst the many reasons there's a strong one:
I haven't seen any river overbet bluff at 1/2 in this casino for a long long long long time. I've seen many non-believers though.

It's the minimax theorem from game theory. You can Google the derivation and the formula. But the idea is that, if you call less often he will win by betting all hands. If you call more often he can just never bluff and will make money. If you call at the right frequency then it doesn't matter how often he bluffs, he cannot make additional money. You have minimised the maximum money he can make.... Minimax. So if you know what your range is at that point, ie what hands you will play identically to KT, then you can fold the bottom 55pc of your range in this spot. Thus you don't need to worry about all these supposed tells and age based, gender based stereotypes, you just play unexploitably

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Flop should be range check from him. so conveys no information. He should have some very strong hands and bluffs that check raise the turn. River he can be bluffing again but you beat no value hands. Fold is fine.

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