Relevant to COTW; looking for thoughts on turn river, but mostly river.

Live 2/5 game, reasonably deep (no one under 150 bb deep), 7 regs, no one spewy, pretty tight for 2/5

Hero, ($800, bb) 30s, reg-ish in the game, seen as thinking player/probably a peer by villain (we've discussed hands etc together away from table, we know each other by name, etc).

Villian ($1200, cut-off), same age, pretty much the same image. tight but will occassionally make moves. I think he's a 2p2er

I'm in bb with AcQs. one limper to cut off who makes it $25, button calls, sb folds, I call, limper calls.

pot $102, flop 3c7c3s

I check, limper checks, cut off checks, button checks.

turn 2c

I lead out for $50, reasoning that game dynamics as they are no one has a piece of that board, and with my super tight image most will fold, and with nut flush blocker even if I get called by a 3, 7, 2 or a flush I have redraws. Granted I'm smoked by any full house. I'm considering this mostly a steal, which isn't great given my position, and I'm in shutdown mode if I miss.

limper folds, villain cut off calls, button folds.

pot $195 ($7 rake), river 7s

I bet $100, basically expecting him to fold, since I know he'll a) fold over pairs, and b) will read me for some kind of small pair that filled up. villain thinks for a second and then makes it $225. I....

I would Fold.

Pretty obvious value raise on the river here by villain. As described, this villain isn't getting out of line on this type of board texture. Expect to see 7x here a majority of the time.

Villain's line is such BS but I'm having a hard time seeing what he can be bluffing with here???

seems like this is quads a lot

River bet makes no sense.

Yeah, this feels a lot like quads. He wouldn't play 3x this way. He wouldn't play 7x this way. He wouldn't play a flush this way. But flopped quads or flopped boat would absolutely take this line. Fold.

Small twist; I've seen him open down to 88 but no lower (doesn't mean he doesn't open 77, but there is that).

At the end of it I couldn't justify and ace high call. I think I dislike the turn bet more than the river bet.

As a final note as I was folding I said something to the effect of "that was either really brilliant or really stupid" to which he replied, "well I couldn't ever put you on a 7 or a 3." My hunch is that he read me for what I had and rebluffed knowing I'm tight and would fold.

I am check calling a reasonable bet(up to say 60% Pot Size) on the river here, to my mind a bet makes absolutely zero sense, as I am calling your sizing with any pair or any ace. It would be sick if he really did bluff you out considering he laid you about 4-1 on the river.

So you think he called the turn with an air ball to bluff raise you on the river?

You missed. But instead of folding, you bet. He puts in a "jiggle the idiot switch" raise. If he's a thinking player, he doesn't think bluffing with his pair of deuces is going to work here for that little. He thinks you know just enough to think, "I've got to call because of pot odds." He doesn't respect you enough for you to realize you're beat 95% of the time.

Assuming the first limper is deep (he must be 150bb+), Villain's pf range is probably pretty wide, especially if the limper is bad enough for him to iso-raise lighter. There's no way I'm assigning a thinking Villain a range like 88+/AQ+ based on pf w/o plenty of history playing deep. He could take this line occasionally with a SC/SG that includes a 7. Quads are also possible of course, but that's only two combos.

Edit: p.s. Fold. And go back in time and check.