2-5 Parx; $1K buyin.
First Orbit. I don't play here regularly and know no one.
V1 in hand is mid 40's, white, nothing to suggest particularly good or bad. $700
V2: Not much info, irrelevant. Covers both of us.
Hero: Late 20's jeans, jacket, just bought in for max $1K.
Question is really on River, but all thoughts welcome, flop bet may have been high.

UTG limps, Hero Raises KK to $30
Folds to V1 in CO and V2 on BTN who both call, blinds and UTG fold.
3-way ~$100
Flop: Q94
Hero bets $75, V1 calls, V2 folds
The call wasn't instant, but fairly quick.
2-way ~$250
Turn: Q942
Hero bets $150, V1 calls. Again, fairly quick call.
2-way ~$550
Turn: Q942T
Hero?

Now, my question is really on the river, but it pertains to the Plan for the whole hand.

Villain has ~445 left on the river. I like a blocker bet for thin value and folding to shove. I'd make it 150 again. Since it's first orbit it's doubtful villain will make a move with worse and we can get value from AQ, KQ, QJ, and maybe JT.

Bet more on Turn .. You went from 75% PSB to 60% PSB. Especially against a player who quick calls (and still multi-way) you want use the Turn bet to get more information but you have to assume that they figure you to be somewhat serious about the hand since you have stayed in the lead for all betting rounds. With a 60% PSB here you will be pricing the player that covers you into any draw he may have ... which may be what you want HU, but not multiway.

You couldve checked the Turn to rep a missed AK c-bet as well to keep the pot smaller. I dont think thats 'our' goal here with an overpair though and no information on the other players. You have to go about this in ABC fashion.

The River bet needs to be fairly reasonable ... $250 min ... and you have to decide if you are going to call a shove before you bet. If you dont plan on calling a shove then check/call any bet to see if you got coolered so early in your session. If you had bet the Turn larger this would not be an issue since the pot size would make his remaining stack a 'value' bet for you.

I would be more inclined to bet this River and NOT show 'weakness' to what really isnt that scary of a board. If you get shoved on after betting $285 you will be getting huge odds to call off the rest (under $200). I dont think the 10 changed anything here (KJd, really??). You were either behind (set/2pr) or ahead the whole way.

I am not sure you will get called by worse very often here (only AQ) but you have to decide how much you are married to your hand before putting out anything here. Being so early in the session I would bet out, but I am not going to hold it against anyone who thinks that since its so early in the session that c/calling is bad either. I also think you are less likely to get shoved on if you bet out. GL

The Turn was Heads Up. V2 folded turn. I called it "2-way" in the OP instead of Heads Up. That was before morning coffee.

River is an interesting situation for picking a bet size because of pot size. Pot is $550 and V1 only has $445 left. Even a smallish bet of $150 leaves you close to pot committed if V1 shoves. Without any other read on villain, I like check/call here with a possible lay down if villain shoves.

I don't like the turn bet sizing, though I make the same mistake during games a lot myself. Your bet size is right in abstract without considering stack sizes, but a smaller bet to leave enough space for a bet/fold on river, or a bigger bet and just shove river would be better as played.

I'd range: QX/99/44/AA. Think we need to underweight AA/44, so 30 combos of AQ/KQ/QJ beat the combos of QQ/Q9/99. As played, value bet $295.

Betting more on the turn, set-ups eff < PSB on the river.

^^^
I disagree with your ranges. I think this is AQ almost always , AA almost 0% of the time, sets are very unlikely as he would have no reason to believe we are folding OTT given our sizing and i expect a shove from hands that are beating us OTT.

I agree with everything else you said though. Def should be thinking about a turn sizing that comfortably leaves a normal river shove. As played I still probably ship it And look as nervous as possible.

Bet half the pot. He will call you with everything that you beat. If you shove he'll only call you with better so I agree you could make a block/value bet here but I'm afraid he might raise and you'll have to call. Fortunately there's still hands you beat if he reraises but no hands you beat if he calls a shove so the optimal play would be bet half the pot.

As played is bet/folding the river bad?

I think we get value from top pair which is our value target range here, where as villain might fold a Q to a river shove.

A villain shove over our bet is almost always QT or a set, I wouldn't expect anything out of line from villain with no reads in first orbit and on this runout.

Bet more on turn to narrow his range and set up a river shove. I would bet $260 on the river and call all shoves. AQ, KQ, QJ makes up most of his range. I could see a shove from AQ but the other two combos will most likely call. Hes not calling with KJ, sets will reraise turn, Q9s raises flop, never has AA and if he has QT gg.

B/F ~190-200

Against relative unknown I'd go with the b/f approach. Bet $150 for value from Qx hands. If villain shoves I think we need to lay it down.

Given the lack of history, the large UTG raise doesn't give us all that much info, but I'd be suprised to see villain show up with QT type hand very often. Most likely is a slow played set, or Qx. b/f allows us to get max value while laying it down to the set.

If we take a c/c line we will most likely be checked through by the Qx's and only hands that beat us bet. Leaving us with a tough call based on his sizing.

I view Betting 200 as approaching the area where we are priced into calling a shove. If we lead 200+ I think it's with the intention of calling a shove getting 5:1 or better.

44/99/Q9 normally re-raise on turn with FD+OESD.
JdTd can to pay Turn.
I think that AQ/KQ don't push in this River.
Ok to bet 150-200 to block a large bet of the V

And there should be a rule prohibiting the wet boars multiway when we have AA/KK, I hat it!!

I'd bet turn a bit bigger and jam river, not that much more mind you. It's not a great situation for us, but I do think it'll show more profit than c/f, and certainly c/c.

As played I think you just count on the fact people don't slowplay enough and shove.

But imo betting 3/4 pot on the flop makes the hand waaayyy too easy to play for Villains holding KJ or QJ or T9s or 88 or even AK. You have those hands beat so often they can't call $75 even if you c-bet your whole range. What about betting $40 with a range like {QQ+, AQ, 1/4 AK, 1/2 AJ, ATs with bdfd, KJ-Ts with bdfd, 1/2 JTs #50}?

Sorry for delay.
I bet $125.
My thoughts for not betting 200 (or higher):
We'd have to call shove due to pot odds, and our hand does very poorly against a line that involves Villains RRAI on River.
3 strong bets overreps our hand a bit here.
My thoughts for not Checking:
AQ/KQ makes up too much of his range to let go of that Value.
Calling a Shove after checking would be hard... so why make a situation more difficult.
My thoughts for $125:
Still gets value from AQ/KQ
I think (close though) it leaves enough room to bet/fold if V shoves AI

1) Why bet anything if you arent going to call a shove? This looks like a 'call me' or blocker type bet that invites a bluff attempt that you are committed not to call. Is he going to see this small of a bet as scared or value?

2) Your bet sizing decreased on Turn from Flop, perhaps since you were HU, and this is too drastic of a decrease to rep much here. You want to your bet size to be large enough that 'some' of the hands that beat you might fold.

3) AQ/KQ makes up 'too much' of his CALLING range? You are giving 5.4 to 1 to call which means that all combos of these cards must rep 20% of his calling range. I think that these cards rep a much larger portion of his calling range but only becuase you have shifted portions of that range that would call into the range of cards the he now shoves/raises with ... and you are resigned to fold to. A larger River bet will expand his 'calling' range and thus allow you to see his cards and prevent a raise from a now broader range that pushes you off your hand which now includes more bluffs. If you leave some FE out there an opponent is more likely to take advantage of it.

Does AQ/KQ make up 20% of his calling PLUS raising range? I dont think so, so why put anything out there if you plan to fold to a shove?

You are right, this is very close. I would put this small size bet 3rd on my list with betting a decent amount first followed by c/c other than a shove. GL

Villain has AQ or maybe KQ. Pretty sure anyone reasonably competent is raising on the flop or turn with a set. Doubt he quick calls like you described with QT. I guess be could possibly have Q9s. Calling twice with a gutter seems unlikely unless he's a huge fish. Either way, I'm betting the river for value.

Villain has AQ or maybe KQ. Pretty sure anyone reasonably competent is raising on the flop or turn with a set. Doubt he quick calls like you described with QT. I guess be could possibly have Q9s. Calling twice with a gutter seems unlikely unless he's a huge fish. Either way, I'm betting the river for value.

bet/fold 200, though I expect to get raised approximately never here. He rarely has a set here as you would have heard about it on the turn, and I think most 2 pair hands just call on the river.


check/call is terrible as he checks back pretty much his entire 1 pair range, and bets his 2-pairs and sets.

check/fold is better than check/call, but not ideal, because Qx and TJ make up a huge part of his range, and your ~40% pot bet gets called often enough to outweigh the times he has QT, Q9, or a set I think.

i dont understand why we are saying we HAVE TO CALL if we bet 200 because we are getting 5:1. if youre getting 12089320598:1 but the guy is NEVER bluffing then you fold. your odds tell you he has to be shoving with a hand worse than yours 1 out of 6 times to make a call profitable. honestly, when you bet more it makes him much less likely to bluff since his FE should appear to be near zero. so you should fold more often. he could perceive a smaller bet as thin value (which it is in this case) and more likely to make a move at $125

He is rarely ever going to bluff that size bet though