nice post pizzle, agree with pretty much all of it.

Pizzle, you've got me fired up. And I appreciate it.

Let's approach this systematically, and really dig in.

First, there are 13 reasonable combos of hands that would raise the flop and are beating me on the turn. I thought the number would be higher, but the board and my hand remove a lot of combos:
AsQs,AsTs,As9s,As8s,As5s,As4s,As2s,QsTs,Qs9s,Ts8s, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8s5s

Obviously, betting the turn against that range is horrible. Let's assume I'll always get stacked for my remaining $3400 if I lead the turn, but only lose $1800 on average if I c/c c/c turn and river. Sometimes, villain will even kindly let me off the hook by raising my turn bet and allowing me to fold cheaply.

There are 14 combos of big (2 pair+) made hands that will raise that flop as well. I discounted KK and JJ to only one combo apiece because they usually raise me preflop. I also completely discounted AsAx, AK, and QsQx in an effort to be conservative and keep the math simple(tho I'm pretty sure AK shows up here at least some of the time):
KJ(9), KK(1), JJ(1), 77(3)

Obviously, I need to bet for value against this range. Can we agree on that? I can't imagine a decent player folding any of these hands on the button on the turn, but taking it down right here is not the worst scenario either. I suppose we could think about a check/raise, but that could easily be a disaster if she checks through, and I doubt she's calling a c/r anyhow.

There are also 13 combos of "big" draws:
AsKh, AsKc, AsKd, AsQh, AsQc, AsQd, AsJh, AsJc, AsJd, AsTh,
AsTc, AsTd,QsTh

It's a sin to let these check through for much of the same reason as the big made hands. Again, many players will call at least one more street with this range, either drawing to the nuts in position or even the possibility that their straight might be good.

There is one combo, 5s4s, that I completely dominate and absolutely should bet to extract max value.

Of hands that would raise me on the flop: I'm behind 13 combos, and ahead of 28 combos. I'm dead to the 13 higher flushes, but a c/c c/c line (I'm never folding ffs) only costs me $1600 less than getting all my money in with a more aggressive b/c line.

Therefore, I only have to extract an average of ~$750 more/hand (in the instances I'm leading) to make betting the turn more profitable than check/calling against villain's entire range. This can be achieved in a number of ways from these hands. I'm also confident that my reverse implied odds are pretty low because I can play nearly perfectly if a river spade or board pairing card hits.

EDIT: It's late. There are likely some math or typo errors in the above. Please be kind!

I think you are vastly overstating the amount of sets/two pairs in her flop raising range.

ok lots of thoughts:

- too many combos of two pairs raising. I'm not convinced that most regs raise any two pair combos in this spot, but even if they raise some it's going to be significantly less than you've estimated. plus it's probably not even reasonable to think that all of the combos of KJ are in villains range, and 1 combo of KK might be overestimating that.
- I'm not convinced that sets raise IP where they don't actually gain much by trying to fold some of your strong equity hands. So giving villain 1 combo of JJ and one combo of 77 is probably fair on the sets count. FWIW if villain is the type to raise these hands on the flop I would expect a turn bet nearly 100% of the time. So that doesn't really add to your argument.
- I think you can eliminate all combos of AsKx, and some combos of AsJx because opponent will happily call with those hands with SDvalue plus the nut draw.
- why do you assume that a villain that would raise NFD+Straight draw is going to raise for fold equity on the flop and then check back the turn when deep? you have to admit that you don't have much of a x/r'ing range in this spot. If you think that b/f'ing the turn might be best than you certainly can't think that x/r'ing the turn with your hand is viable. That means you might have a few combos of bluffs and a few combos of second nuts that would consider x/r'ing the turn. In that case a villain that is raising the flop as a semibluff to try and get folds with the NFD+SD is going to very often keep betting assuming that the value of their draw+fold equity is more than enough to put money into the pot, and that OOP on the river facing a huge bet you're going to be screwed more often than not. Just assuming that every semi-bluffing hand is going to take a free card is a disaster is simply not reasonable.
- lastly the argument that you only need to extract X amount of dollars more per hand to make leading reasonable is just really really flawed. There are too many variables and potentially erroneous assumptions your making for this to be true. And you're simply not taking into account the times when villain does something you aren't expecting and you make a huge mistake. this statement "I'm confident my revers implied odds are low" is just really silly. If you're so confident why are you posting the hand? You're basically telling us that you're going to play so well on the river that you don't mind just forfeiting the information war on the turn. if that's the case then you don't need my advice.

I'm going to hit on that last thing a bit, and then make one comment related to balance that I know will likely be ignored by live players (for some good reasons and some bad ones).

Poker is a game of gambling on available information. FToP does a better job of illustrating that than just about anything else. Anytime we have a chance to play a hand in a way that gives the least amount of information to our opponents while getting the most amount of information from them we are likely to profit. Even if that profit is losing less than we would have otherwise. No matter how good of a player you are it is unlikely you can overcome a situation where your opponent can often call a bet with a little less direct odds than needed knowing that your range is probably capped and their range is disguised on the river. In that situation they can easily form a range of bluffs and made hands that makes it impossible for you to profit on the river (aka a balanced range). Now certainly most players aren't this good, but most of them whether doing it conciously or not are striving to be good. AKA when a player bluffs in a spot where they would often bet for value they realize that they're trying to gain value by exploiting your tendency to fold to their value bets. So when you turn your hand face up, if villain is thinking she is going to make your life hell on the river and it is highly unlikely that the value you might gain from a turn lead can overcome this impossible spot on the river. If villain isn't good enough to realize this than again this thread probably isnt' worth making and you should just value bet the river and not sweat this spot.

Lastly regarding balance: I know you guys say it doesn't make sense to concern yourselves with balancing ranges in live play where your samples against opponents are so small that exploitative play often has an edge. I think when you say this you're probably overestimating your skill as well as the value of the information you've gained over a very small sample (or by stereotyping or trusting other regs reads). Simply put, if you strive to play a somewhat balanced game you're going to profit with every mistake that your opponent makes. I feel even in a live setting, a balanced game plan should be your starting point. As you gain valuable information you can certainly shift towards exploitative play to take advantage of mistakes your opponents are making. But this hand is an example where you simply don't have enough information to take an exploitative line like leading the turn in this spot. If you did, you wouldn't need to post the hand. However if you started with a strategy of using this hand to balance the weaker part of your range that has equity and wants to see the river you've pretty much made yourself unexploitable. You have a strong bluff catcher to protect the times that you want to call two with Pair+SD+flushdraw and fold to a huge river bet. Or times you want to float and try to take it away if villain checks back the turn. And more importantly, villain can't just stop bluffing every time she doesn't improve on the river assuming that your range is always made hands.

basically by unbalancing your range in attempt to make an exploitative play you've actually given up profit and put yourself in a more difficult spot against a thinking opponent. and you didn't have the necessary information to make such a decision profitable, thus the thread.

that's pretty much all I got to say. feel like I've written a book on this hand

This was a lovely post.

Thanks pizzle.

This is one of the better hand discussions I've seen in quite a while.

i think as played this has to be a bet/call small on the river

your perceived range is pretty strong on the turn, certainly with regard to how you perceive your own equity in the hand, but the fact that your value range is so narrow on the river, combined with the fact that you raised UTG and didn't checkcall turn/river, i think you can manipulate your perceived range and induce bluffs by feigning a thinner valuebet on the river

You're factoring a ton of AsKo/AsQo in her range, but you said she 3bet you twice in an hour, and that she'd be likely to 3bet JJ. So isn't all AQo+ an easy preflop 3bet for her here when you're opening hands as weak as 36ss UTG?

If you're confident you won't make mistakes, doesn't this same logic demand that you 3bet the flop? Those 14 ugly river cards might show up on the turn too. There's more value at that moment, and you can fold more easily to her 4bet.

If villain isn't good enough to realize this than again this thread probably isnt' worth making and you should just value bet the river and not sweat this spot. -in reference to pizzles post

^^
i think this is pretty much whats up in this spot
not to say that this wasnt an awesome thread with great discussion
but in my experience the live droolers that are playing these 5/10 games are (mostly) not thinking this deep about hands..(in my area at least)
something more along the lines of
"durr i HaZ two pair this guy leading into me, i dont know wat thiz means but i gamboooool so i must call w da straight, as i hack a nasty ass cough into my hands and scratch the hair on my knuckles" is more appropriate

that said i think she has a spades ALOT here

especially vs asian girls who are like 99% button clickers anyway (have played against alot of em)
might be to much of a generalization however i think taking this lead lead type line on turn/riv is probably fine and she will be stationing off worse plenty.....i think that theres barely any chance that shes thinking about the hand this deeply in game

Call flop, c/c turn, c/soul read river.
Don't like the lead turn.

The runout with 4 card str8 makes the hand awkward, i don't know if she could turn sets/2 pairs otr into a bluff to make you fold the broadway, i guess she will probably crying check back sets on the river.

Pre seems terrible, but you insists its +EV given table dynamics, so let's just leave it at that.

I think villain is a lot more polarized on the flop than you are implying. I don't often see many live players raising the flop here with sets/two pair, so you are most likely up against a flush, Asx, or a low equity bluff. Against this range, I think checking turn is best.

Shoving the river is interesting. Some players might call all with Asx assuming we never take this line for value without the nuts. Seems a bit optimistic though. I prefer lead/folding.

As played I think a b/f of around $800 is fine since you shouldn't ever be ahead if she raises river.
Although I do kinda like your turn lead here, I would still c/c turn and river. A lot of it really hinges on what she will do with strong equity hands that need to improve. If you think she will check back with AsQ/As10 type hands then leading is def best on turn, and even a blocker bet on river is still fine. I don't think you have enough history to be able to shove river for value, and I wouldn't recommend it as a bluff either (unless river pairs the board!).
I am not sure where the cutoff would be for her turn c-bet, I'd say in the 2/3 range. If she is betting the turn less than that than I think donk/block is a much better line than cc/cc or cc/block.
Based on her solid showdown image I think betting more than 60% on the river is not optimal.

Curious on results. I think the turn lead makes her decisions much easier. If I am here I am shipping over your river with a high frequency, especially with ace of spades in my hand.

I don't know villain or your dynamics, but I prefer to check turn and evaluate river.

If I do b/f river id put it on the larger side to give impression of no fold equity if she ships over you. As played make it about 1400, but not exactly. Prob 1390 or 1430.

What did you do on river?