1/3 home game (plays big. More like 2/5) 7 handed.

Hero: 20y/o white college student with a LAG image. Has been kinda card dead and folding alot but the players know this is not typical for me. (500)

V1: Spewy woman in her 50s. Pays people off light and plays her hands face up. (400)

V2: Standard boring TAG on the less aggressive side of the spectrum. Can lay hands down. (500)

Straddler: Terrible spewing calling station. (Covers)

UTG straddles for 6. V1 raises to 16. Hero calls in HJ with 34dd. V2 calls in CO. SB calls. Straddler Calls.

Flop (83) Jd8h3h
Check, check, check, Hero bets 40, V2 calls, everyone else folds.

Turn (163) 5d
Hero bets 120, V2 calls.

River (403) 2s
Hero shoves all in for 325.

Can this bluff be profitable long term? I'm representing a set here as that is the only hand I can really play this way for value but I have a pretty thin value range.
I think his hand is almost always a J or a missed draw both of which I think this V can fold here.

As a note: I don't fold pre because I have position on the raiser and straddler who will both pay me off if I get there. Flop bet is questionable but I think I just take it down there alot.

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I like emptying the clip here vs a player who can lay hands down. Sizing is perfect.

But I don't like pre at all and I think our flop bet rarely takes it down "a lot". In a 5-way pot I think we rate to get called way more often than not. Then what? Are we continuing if the turn doesn't help us?

Fold pre - you're justification for calling is not convincing, or even true. 16/500 is about 30 to 1 implied odds, in the very best of situations (ie. V pays you off 100% of the time). The odds of flopping two pair or better are 50 to 1, and who knows how much you'll have to pay to see the turn and river cards.

Flop bet is way way too small

The rest is fine.

So when can we call pre with small suited connectors? Never?

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Preflop and flop are not good
Turn is good
River is ok

I'm actually tempted to check call river with bottom pair if villian is incapable of vbetting Jx otr, but is capable of bluffing missed draws.
(requires better read)


Would rather take this line/triple barrel with 97dd T9dd

I just have a hard time getting past the pf call. We don't have a penny invested - surely there's gotta be better spots.

If I find myself at the river, as played, then you have little choice (given that v2 can indeed lay down, not put you on T9dd or some such).

If you can get to the flop with an SPR >15 you can call, in position, with a SC.

I'd probably still ditch anything smaller than 76s

They can be good raising hands in many situations when you have 2 or 3 way hands, and lots of fold equity post-flop. However, in that instance suited/connected-ness is merely a backup plan in case our V actually has something.

When EP/MP raises and we are in the HJ, calling 43s is insanely wide. Think about it, your basically calling 50%+ and you dont even have the best position nor do you know if the remaining 5 players left to act will squeeze.

FWIW I think my image is similar to V2 "standard boring TAG on less aggressive side" that will often lay down some hands where a lot of people might call. I think with anything like AJ/KJ/QJ I find a call here, only if I view you as a LAG. Just on the basis that a lot of draws would have missed here, and I would expect you to fire a 3rd bullet on these missed draws. Again, this is only if I view you as a LAG.

Preflop is pretty meh, imo. Yeah, V1 probably has a face up hand and is spewy and we might be ok trying to bink for fairly cheap. But we're still in fairly early position (there still 5 players behind that haven't looked at their hand, right?) and could be reraised, or end up OOP postflop in tricky spots. Meh.

I'm not even sure about the flop bet this multiway. Everyone in EP could easily be checking their big hand to the raiser, plus we're OP to one behind us. I don't hate it since multiway pots are typically played a little more honestly on drawy boards (less checking to the raiser), and if I am betting I'm pretty cool with one on the small side.

When V2 calls he could just have a draw. But he could also have a made hand that might not be folding. Again, being OOP here kinda sucks. I *think* I'm ok with a bet here though as he could be drawing or he might lay down his mediocre hands that are better than ours.

I don't think we need to bluff the river as his draws all missed and it sounds like he's not the type to bluff his whiffed draws. I'd just check/fold the river.

ETA: In the end, we ended putting in 167bbs with the monster known as 4th pair / bottom kicker, which usually tells us that something has gone a little wrong somewhere along the way.

Geverystreetisdebatable,imoG

I think he has a J or a missed draw here and that he'll almost always fold a J. If he has a missed draw I win regardless and I think against his value range this bet works more than 1/2 the time which is what I need it to work to be profitable.

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that is a big bluff

PF and flop play are LOLbad. We're not deep enough to call this hand PF with players behind us, and betting the flop into 4 other players is suicide.

As played, making big bluffs when the board texture doesn't change from the flop to the river is generally ill-advised. I'd imagine this player is capable of slow-playing big hands (sets, flushes) against a self-described LAG, and he also might find a river call with hands like AJ/KJ given your image. If you think he always folds those hands and rarely slowplays his monsters, then the river bet is good, but those aren't reads that are included in your OP.

E Mo, If you read is this guy will fold to you with his top pair hands then that's your read and this is a good play (which would likely make your opponent's description tight weak rather than TAG). One area where i see some potential for a mistake on your part is what you think you are repping. In your OP you said you are only repping sets, a) that seems to be a pretty narrow range for someone to put a LAG on with a drawy board and b) if it's really true that you would only bet sets this way and none of you draw hands or combo draw hands that you are probably not actually a LAG. So you only smooth call PF with pocket pairs? I don't buy it and I doubt the Villain does either? Does he have a reason to believe you only tripple barrel with huge hands?

I misread the flop, thought it was monotone hearts. In that case, turn barrel is good and I like the river bet a bit less as you beat missed draws and if V has Jx he's more likely to call.