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Bet Sizing with Set 115BB Deep Bet Sizing with Set 115BB Deep

10-22-2019 , 05:42 PM
1/2 NL
Hero is MAWG, playing pretty snug b/c card dead. I don't give off the splashy vibe anyway. 240 stack.
Villain is younger WG with marijuana-themed hat and shirt on. Had been making some weird plays and had just gotten stacked and rebought, but wasn't a maniac. 230 stack.

Hero has 88 in HJ. One limp, Hero raises to 12 (in line with standard sizing at table and in most 1/2 games, but happy to hear feedback on this). V calls on BTN. Blinds fold; limper calls.

Pot $35 after rake.

Flop A84

Limper checks, Hero bets 15, V calls, limper folds.
*I sized down because the board was dry and I didn't want to lose value from small PPs that might call one bet, and I thought there was some small chance that I could induce a raise from A4 or some bigger A that didn't want to 3bet pre.

Pot 63 after rake.

Turn 6

Hero bets $25, V calls.
*I again sized down on this blank-looking turn, with essentially the same rationale.

Pot 113.

River 2

Hero bets 60.

Thoughts on all streets?
Bet Sizing with Set 115BB Deep Quote
10-22-2019 , 05:49 PM
Flop fits, but you can size up a touch considering you’re playing 1/2, but fine. Your turn bet is terribly small once IP calls flop. Bet more and you should be able to shove river. I wouldn’t mess around in this game and just empty over 3 streets. You should maximize against Ax that way, and ensure you get full pay vs 2p hands.
Bet Sizing with Set 115BB Deep Quote
10-22-2019 , 06:11 PM
Preflop is good, flop sizing is meh, I would use a standard 20 into 35 mostly because villains like to just call down with weaker Ax that didnt 3b. But i dont want squabble over 5 dollars. Lol but I will.

25 into 65 though is way too small, we have a SPR of (203 to 65 = 3.12 to 1) we would have to bet pot on the turn to have a pot size bet left.

If we bet 20 on flop then we have 198 or 2.64 to 1 which means we can bet 45 into 75 on the turn and have a pot size bet left on the river.

See why the 5 is worth squabbling over? We have the second best possible hand we can have on this flop, we have to get max value at 1/2 so get after it and dont level yourself into letting a villain get to showdown with AQ when you could of got his stack. Instead you only got 112 instead of 230.

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Bet Sizing with Set 115BB Deep Quote
10-22-2019 , 06:12 PM
I would think that you can safely size up on flop to $25, or just a tiny bit less. V with an ace is never folding to that size with an ace and as you say, the flop is dry, so ace is all that you’re targeting for value basically (other than 99-KK which V shouldn’t have often since he flatted BTN).
This actually makes a huge difference b/c now your turn pot would be $83 after take instead of $63 and you can fire a much bigger second barrel (something in the $55-60 range seems good to me).
After that your pot is around $200 after the turn and you can easily shove basically all rivers and expect to be good almost always.
Bet Sizing with Set 115BB Deep Quote
10-22-2019 , 06:53 PM
I think a smaller flop size is fine if it wasn’t an ace. People just aren’t folding Ax here. These are the spots where you’re going for max value. Bet 25-30 otf 65ish ott then you can ship fairly easily otr.
Bet Sizing with Set 115BB Deep Quote
10-22-2019 , 11:13 PM
Bigger every street.
Bet Sizing with Set 115BB Deep Quote
10-23-2019 , 12:53 AM
This is the spot dreams are made of at 1/2. This is why you sit there and fold pre as these morons play “real poker” by limping or calling raises preflop and then getting involved in 5 way pots with 97o.

So, you need to envision stacks. When you have a bone dry board, and he calls, and you have middle set, it is very likely he has an ace. Moreover, this turn card sometimes gives him a gutter. We need to bring the hammer.


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Bet Sizing with Set 115BB Deep Quote
10-23-2019 , 02:25 AM
Grunch

Pre is cool

Just bet more every street. It's 1/2, people will pay! Have your cbets been had 100% success rate or something?
Bet Sizing with Set 115BB Deep Quote
10-23-2019 , 02:46 AM
My issue is that you never said what kind of hand range you had V on, just a generic thought about someone having A4, etc. That kind of thinking determines bet sizing.
Bet Sizing with Set 115BB Deep Quote
10-23-2019 , 02:56 AM
More of the same...
I understand your reasoning.
We could make this size with AA or AT-AK once V have less aces and maybe with 99-TT that could use some protection along with air that we would just giveup.

88 we can size up. Pot is 39 (dont like to use after rake because ppl aren’t taking this in consideration when reasoning, so it could lie about their continuing range), so I’m going for 30€-35€ vs a villain thats probably not that good with maths.

AP Turn, potsize. Could look like a bluff that want to giveup river.

AP river im overbetting.
1.5x-2x psb.
Bet Sizing with Set 115BB Deep Quote

      
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