Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
Bet-sizing and population tendencies Bet-sizing and population tendencies

03-10-2014 , 07:41 PM
Someone asked this question a couple months ago, and I didn't see the response at the time (if any) and wasn't able to find it again in a search.

In live play, if we size our post-flop bets properly (to price out draws, etc), we make such huge bets (relative to population perception) that we often are only going to get called by better hands. My question is, what should we do about this, if anything?

For example, assume a typical 1/2 game. Hero has AK on the button after several limps. Hero raises to X (something suitable for table conditions, say $18 in this example) and gets called in three places. Flop (~$70) comes Kxxss. Great flop, right? As hero, I'm personally cbetting at least $50 (around 2/3 pot) on this flop to price out possible straight/flush draws. But for the typical low-limit live player, $50 is a huge bet. This bet will often only get called by sets and odd 2pr combos that have us crushed (as well as the draws/Kx combos we are hoping to get value from). We are, in effect, often selecting for hands that beat us.

Is this something that we need to adapt for, or do we just continue to make the correct theoretical play (we hope) and play as best we can? (Some of you may say that we made a mistake pf and didn't raise enough to thin the field, which I guess is a valid argument as well).

Thanks for any discussion/advice.
Bet-sizing and population tendencies Quote
03-10-2014 , 08:10 PM
I was thinking the same myself as the consensus is to "bet big" with TPTK or TPGK. Problem is when called are they slow playing 2 pair or better and are we then pot committed if stacked say 100bb. Interested in other responses..
Bet-sizing and population tendencies Quote
03-10-2014 , 08:27 PM
actually, your calibration is way way WAYYY off....

fish psychology is not the same as a thinking player's psychology.

There are various breeds of fish that will respond differently to various situations:

Super Station fish: Will call ANY amount as long as he has a piece of the board
Super Drawing fish: Will call ANY amount as long as he is on a draw
Normal Station fish: Will call up to pot sized bets if he has a piece of the board
Normal Drawing fish: Will call up to pot sized bets if he is on a draw
"I put you on AK" fish: This fish will call almost any bet to include stacking off post flop if he has ANY pair provided no Ace or King hits the board and you are the preflop raiser
TPGK fish: This fish will call any bet and stack off as long as he has top pair to include low ball flop like 8 5 2 .
Afraid of the FD fish: This fish will not only call but will often overshove any board with a flush draw on it because he's pathologically afraid of his TPGK losing to a flush draw
Pitbull fish: this fish will latch onto to any piece of the board hoping to pick up 2 pair or trips on future streets, will easily call up to pot sized bets
Gamboool fish: Will call down on any draw or piece of the board. In fact, this fish will draw to draw meaning he will go for runner runner
Why so much fish? This fish loves to soul read and hero call big bets
Ignorant fish: This fish has absolutely no concept of pot size vs stack size and just calls down TPWK or better despite board texture

I could go on and on and on but I'll stop there.

In short, our villains don't think like we do and make a host of mistakes. sure, not all of our villains are droolers or level 1 players, but easily 50% (if not more) of them are. Not to mention that even the ABC players and semi competent players can and will level themselves all the time.

Based on your post I get the sense you are a thinking player probably used to online play... Unfortunately, the paradigm that goes with online play will cost you money in the live game and/or you will end up leaving tons of money on the table.

Have a look at this thread I started a while back that focuses on TYPICAL LLSNL play/situations we see daily...

hope this helps

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...hands-1242315/

seriously, have a look at the above thread to get a better sense of the villains we will often encounter at LLSNL
Bet-sizing and population tendencies Quote
03-10-2014 , 10:12 PM
dgi is a man of excellent posts and ideas. One thing I have always tried to do is be consistent with my bet sizes with regard to similar situations with the same 'V type' and also (what dgi also recommended in another post) what the V sees in you.

If you are playing an ever changing player pool then it will be very important for you to be aware of both sides of that 'equation' since its up to you to evaluate what is the best way to get value out of a hand. I also think this is dependent on your bank roll and goals of your play .. rec, fun, income ..

If you are up against 'regs' then you have to know that they will pick up on your play to the point that you have to change your play in order to get additional value from them ... or just realize that it was 'unlucky' that you got HU with them in this hand and not someone who might now 'know' how you play.

If you have a decent range of opening hands then you have to be willing to play into your image by c-betting this Flop with JJ and getting some folds. In this case here you REALLY need to be aware of your V type since they are probably going to the River with you!!

I hope to read these previous threads as well ... GL
Bet-sizing and population tendencies Quote
03-10-2014 , 10:13 PM
Dgi, thanks for the reply. I've actually read that post (and might even have posted in it, but too lazy to search atm) and your PGC thread as well (Thanks a ton for that, btw).

So, cliffs, I guess are, "Know thine villain"? Who's drawing, who's got TPWK, who's drawing to draw, etc? Sounds so easy... whoever makes the first live HUD is gonna make mirrions.
Bet-sizing and population tendencies Quote

      
m