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Bet/Fold TPTK OTT getting great odds? Bet/Fold TPTK OTT getting great odds?

09-07-2014 , 12:18 PM
Okay, so I run into this situation semi-frequently... here's a quick outline of the basic situation.

Loose but somewhat passive 2/5 game...

Few limps Hero raises the BTN to $35 with AQo, few callers...

Flop: Q45hh

Hero bets the flop and gets called in two spots.

Turn: 6c

checks to Hero...

Now say the pot is approximately $275... Both Villains have approximately $400-$600 behind... Hero bets $160, first Villain calls, the second Villain shoves all-in for $450 total.

We are now getting... $275 + (3x$160) + $290 = $1045...

$1045:$290 or 3.6:1 on a call... But based on reads I almost never have the best hand here. Is this just a fold ever getting such good odds? It's approaching the point where I should actually call to suck out against lower two pairs and stuff.

Note I just made up the numbers in this hand (although this hand actually did play out).

Obviously checking the turn is not something we want to do... Way too much value to be lost, but it seems like folding here also sucks and may be exploitable. I also plan to jam safe rivers.

Thoughts?
Bet/Fold TPTK OTT getting great odds? Quote
09-07-2014 , 12:29 PM
Checking the turn is perfectly reasonable given the spot you described.

HU is a different story.

When the obvious draw hits OTT against multiple opponents, stop betting.
Bet/Fold TPTK OTT getting great odds? Quote
09-07-2014 , 12:35 PM
Think about their range which called you otf.

Even if they didn't lead into you ott, you have to admit to yourself that your multiple opponents' range improved against your range dramatically.

Again, heads up would be different.
Bet/Fold TPTK OTT getting great odds? Quote
09-07-2014 , 12:48 PM
What obvious draw hit the turn?

23? 78?

That calls a PFR and a flop bet on a two-tone board?

This situation is classic Baluga theorem and I'm not saying I like the spot but I don't see the off suit 6 as being much of a scare card in this example.

I also don't see sets being slowplayed very often on a two-tone board 3-way with the PFR being the aggressor.

So it will come down to player reads but in this particular example, I may violate Baluga and stick it in expecting a worse queen to spazz or a bad turn semibluff.
Bet/Fold TPTK OTT getting great odds? Quote
09-07-2014 , 12:49 PM
This situation really depends on exact opponents and stack sizes. In particular, what does V1 flat call with on turn? How often does he call with a draw here, how often does he flat with a head that beats you, how much of his range can he lay down with two shoves after him? With V2, does he ever shove a draw here? How often does he turn up with hand your drawing dead against? That said, against two villains this is usually a fold. Your almost always behind one of the two villains here and even when your not drawing dead to a straight/set, the other villain is often blocking some of your outs.

Also +1 to checking turn here. If you just have one pair, your multiway and turn card is good for villain's likely range then checking turn is often good.
Bet/Fold TPTK OTT getting great odds? Quote
09-07-2014 , 12:58 PM
@ Fatman...

Why do you think these obvious draws are unlikely? This is LLSNL and players rarely fold 65, 64, 87, 66 in thus spot OTF. What did they call your flop bet with?

I'm not being mubs, I'm just pointing out that you have to adjust your range estimate for multiple villains after you get called.

Heads up we can go for more thin value.
Bet/Fold TPTK OTT getting great odds? Quote
09-07-2014 , 01:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lapidator
@ Fatman...

Why do you think these obvious draws are unlikely? This is LLSNL and players rarely fold 65, 64, 87, 66 in thus spot OTF. What did they call your flop bet with?

I'm not being mubs, I'm just pointing out that you have to adjust your range estimate for multiple villains after you get called.

Heads up we can go for more thin value.
Not saying impossible that this card improved opponents but I do not feel this is an obvious scare card. We need to weight ranges somewhat. If we seriously consider villain's calling PFRs and flop cbets with any bottom pair hand, then every turn is a "scare card". Drawing to a ragged two pair in this spot just doesn't qualify as an obvious draw IMO, but ya, idiots can show up with it I guess.
Bet/Fold TPTK OTT getting great odds? Quote
09-07-2014 , 02:36 PM
Ultimately I'm just saying that checking back ott is OK.

I'm not checking back always.
Bet/Fold TPTK OTT getting great odds? Quote
09-07-2014 , 03:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by QuadJ
This situation really depends on exact opponents and stack sizes. In particular, what does V1 flat call with on turn? How often does he call with a draw here, how often does he flat with a head that beats you, how much of his range can he lay down with two shoves after him? With V2, does he ever shove a draw here? How often does he turn up with hand your drawing dead against? That said, against two villains this is usually a fold. Your almost always behind one of the two villains here and even when your not drawing dead to a straight/set, the other villain is often blocking some of your outs.

Also +1 to checking turn here. If you just have one pair, your multiway and turn card is good for villain's likely range then checking turn is often good.
My read is that V1 rarely if ever has be beat when he takes this line IMO. He's calling pretty wide OTF I think. I suspect he is on a heart draw or weaker Qx.

I wasn't really asking about whether or not to fold in this spot, but rather, what are our options on the turn given the stack sizes in spots like this one where we have TPTK on a draw heavy board. It seems that some of you guys are okay with checking the turn.
Bet/Fold TPTK OTT getting great odds? Quote
09-07-2014 , 04:21 PM
Heads up, this is generally a bet on the turn. That isn't a brick but it isn't terrible either, and there is a good chance villain has improved to pair+draw. However, against an aggressive opponent who can shove a draw on the turn, checking some of the time is good also.

The problem here is that multiway, that card will often have helped one of your opponents. You then end up in a guessing game trying to decide if they improved to a pair+draw or two pair+. Add in the risk that the second villain is blocking some of your outs, and betting here becomes questionable. I'm not saying never bet here, particularly if villains are predictable fish who will call flop with any pair/any draw then it may be the right move. However, against two reasonably competent ones it's marginal and depends on what sort of ranges you put them on and how often they will shove with a draw.
Bet/Fold TPTK OTT getting great odds? Quote

      
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