H has been at the must move table for about a half hour and doubled up the third hand when I got three streets of value with my aces. Otherwise been pretty quiet and haven't gotten out of line.

V sat down about 1 orbit ago (we're 6 handed) and seems to be laggy. He's a big MAWG and seems very comfortable with the game - his table talk tends to comments like "The action at [some other casino] is really dry, i was there 10 hours and only made $500 bucks", so i get the impression he plays a lot. V has 400ish and H covers.

OTTH

H gets black 9s in the CO. V is in the SB. Two limps to H who pops it to 20. I think sizing is fine here but could conceivably be a bit larger. V calls and BB calls as well (laggy, ATC type V). Other limpers fold.

Flop: K98r (62 after rake)

Check to H who bets 20. Looking back, I don't like this sizing. I think 30 or 35 is better here but I figure I have the board pretty well crippled (barring JT) and I don't want to blow out Kx. V calls, BB folds.

Turn: J (completes rainbow, 101 in pot)

V checks and H fires 50, hoping to get value from sticky Ks, two pairs, pair+draws (which I'm crushing). V calls pretty automatically.

River: 3 (201)

V fires 120. At this point, I don't know what reasonably beats me. I think I'd hear from sets on the turn, and no 3bet pre reduces the chances of JJ or KK. This feels a bunch like a good hand but one that still loses to mine. Small chance V turned a straight here with T7 or QT, but the former is a pretty weak hand to call OOP and the later is only a gutshot on the flop. So I discount those. I'm weighting his range primarily to two pairs or 88, or even a draw (JT) that missed and is trying to steal.

Pot is now 321 and V has ~210 behind. I'm never folding obviously so the question is between call and AI. I tend to lean towards AI because I feel like just calling is leaving lots of value on the table. It feels mubsy to just call, bc I don't know what reasonably beats me here that plays this way.

Thoughts on all aspects appreciated. I'm trying to be better about not leaving behind value when I'm crushing people's ranges and had some mixed success last night, so looking for feedback. Thanks.

So heading to flop pot is $60 and V has $380 behind? I really dislike the small flop bet. Either V is very unlikely to fold Kx to a flop bet of any size.

I go $50 on flop, and assuming I'm called in one spot there's $160 in the pot. I bet $120 on the turn, putting $400 in the pot and $210 behind, and then shove river.

AP shove river. Given your small sizing on the flop, he could have QT, but he has a ton of two pair combos here, and maybe he levels himself into a call w/ KQ too.

I definitely wouldve bet the flop harder. Nobody who calls a raise with a K is going to fold to a $40 C-bet on the flop.

I also wouldve bet more on the turn.

As played Im pushing all in on the river. If he has QT or T7 so be it. Even if he never calls with a worse hand I still think its a good river shove. It teaches people not to lead into you like that. Lots of times when they do that you are going to have no idea what to do. This time you have the hand to make him pay for the blocking bet or whatever that is.

Pre sizing is good.

Flop is good for narrow range/big sizing strategy. x98 board is pretty favorable for callers, even if it is rainbow, and it's a 3-way pot. No better hand to bet big with than the one you currently hold. $50 is perfectly fine against a couple of 2/5 MAWGs.

I'd also bet turn bigger. I expect players to get pretty sticky with pair+draws 6-handed, and two pairs make up a large portion of his range at this point. We could set ourselves up for a river shove with a $80+ bet.

River: your silly flop bet makes this a lot closer because I'm pretty sure QT is alive and well at this point, probably even all 16 combos. Hard to get up to get anywhere near 20 combos of worse hands, even if we think he's b/c'ing K3s and somehow has 88, so I guess you gotta flat -_-

More combos of QTo+T7s than kj+88 so I call.

Raise is meh

grunch.

You do not have this board "crippled". Once that flop comes you need to be thinking about trying to get stacks in vs Kx. So many hands both villain's range preflop that have Kx. 50/130/200 looks good. Your sizing was really bad on flop and turn. V has given you a gift here by donking the river. If he has QT, so be it. Ship for fat value.

Grunch (assume this is 1/2)

Pre - looks good to me... and the result is good... 2 callers and us IP.

OTF - brilliant flop. Not only do we flop the (essential) nuts - but we've got a nice wettish board that is right in caller's wheelhouse. I'm definitely going for big value here... 1/3 pot just feels way too small.. we are giving even gut shots good odds. Better to bet 50 - 60.

OTT - so so turn card for us. This card will improve almost every decent hand that called flop (which is mostly a good thing - but there are definitely some QT/T7 out there. However, more hands that we beat also improve... QJ /KJ/ JT/ T9 etc...... Again half pot seems small to me. I want to bet closer to pot

OTR. Very strange lead. Why wouldn't he have fired a made straight OTT? Anyway... at this point I'm just calling. You got your three streets (albeit with small bets) - and sometimes weird bets like this are just what they represent. And if he can't beat the set of 99's - chances are he won't call a raise (could have been a half blocker/half value bet).

The other posters here have already told you to bet more on the flop. They were pretty kind about it. They shouldn't be. This sizing mistake was probably the biggest $EV mistake you made in 2 hours. Atrocious. Sometimes you flop a monster and everyone folds. That's poker and that's fine. But when you flop a monster and your opponent turns KJ for 2pair and you don't get his stack, it's an absolute disaster.

As played I would shove.

For those advocating more on the flop (i.e. everyone) - does this not scream huge hand here? If someone in position fires almost-pot on that board, I'm dumping everything that's not AK or better, and maybe not even calling JT. Do you think we get value from Kx on that board, with that bet? It seems like we'd be shutting out hands that would call a smaller bet and have almost no chance to improve to beat us (KT, KJ, KQ all need runner-runner, etc.). I'm on board with more on the flop, but a pot-sized bet seems like overkill and i feel like we'd lose a lot of value. Thanks for the input so far!

AK+ is a minuscule part of their range, even collectively speaking. This is a pretty light board for us, so them folding more isn't exactly a bad thing for us. If they're nitting it up against us, then just bluff more, but I wouldn't count on that.

There is literally zero chance V would fold Kx to a $35-45 flop bet, which is what you should make it, IMO (I would've bet 40). No need to pot it. Your bet sizing should be the same regardless of your actual holding (sizing depends on flop texture, not your hand), so no, it should not scream "huge hand."

ascribing your own thought processes to an average LLSNL fish is a mistake.

First off, you're the PFR so everyone expects you to raise. People rarely pay a ton of attention to sizing, and if they do, some people think that a big c-bet means you want value while others think that a big c-bet means you want to get folds.

More importantly, you're kind of projecting your thought process on Vs. Maybe you'd fold KQ, KJ, KT or other Kx to a big bet here, but your villains aren't you. Presumably you wouldn't play those hands in a raised pot out of position anyway, and if you did I think you'd be making a mistake folding to a c-bet with top pair. Very hard for a V to call pre-flop and then just fold when they hit top pair on the flop.

Did not read responses.


Flop bet sizing is atrocious likely because OP for whatever reason thinks he has the board crushed. There are TONS of hands opponents could have to call with. Same to say in turn. Make sure you get all in and quick because this is the meaty stuff that makes these stakes so easy.