thanks

It’s going to depend on the ranges at play very heavily.

Let’s say V should have something like 88s-QQs, AQo, A9s-AJs, 109s-KQs etc. after opening UTG+1 and calling the SB 3-bet.

Well there are very few combos of Jx in there percentage wise. (AJs, J10s, QJs, no offsuit jacks)

So the counter is... “ yo this is live poker he has so many jacks bro.... do you even gamboool?”

OK. Then he also has tons and tons of other junk such as FDs, more pairs, more overs, etc. that he shouldn’t have that he’ll need to do something with.

When you consider the fact that we don’t have very much Jx ourself and AA is near the top of our range.. and in addition to that we’re getting good pot odds... it is a disaster if V is ever stabbing at a decent frequency with non Jx after the flop raise.

I could go more in depth but in reality calling down is practically never a mistake here where as folding is actually the option that is more likely to be lighting tons of EV on fire.

Also, there are so many things we can do as an exploit if they are restricted to trips with this line that we’ll make up for the lost money here elsewhere.

Sometimes, the best play loses money.

We can just triple barrel more aggressively vs this V/pool if we get the opportunity... because a lot of their nutted hands will be raised otf so their call down range won’t be able to withstand pressure.

————
TLDR; we should expect to lose here a lot but that doesn’t have to be a bad thing or mean we’re making a mistake

Yeah but... he really does have a jack this time..

the results of these hands don’t mean very much- especially considering these posts are skewed heavily toward losing hands and BBV.

you know this

Oh I didnt need results to make that assertion ;D

I think OP was genuine in not making a BBV post. You are quite right that if we're assigning V some jacks here then we have to account for all the other trash he could have UTG. But I think it's ok to narrow down ranges considerably based upon postflop action. Raise/bet/bet with huge sizings on a paired board? Doesnt matter how he got there, V has the nuts. This is not the kind of spot to collect your Galfond bucks.

This is very true. A good majority of the time a posted hand is one where the hero resulted in losing the hand. The discussion should really revolve around which decisions are best and why. Not what we think happened in the hand. Anyone can guess, "I bet he had a J."

Several times I've seen posters go back and forth with me on decisions and then when the results come out they go, "See I was right!"

And I'm like facepalm.

The biggest offenders is when someone loses with AA vs 72 on a K3972 runout and then asks if they should have x/f the river when V sticks in his last 10 blinds. Running into paired boards from the flop is a frequent enough occurrence to warrant discussion

Spyu are you calling turn and river?

Fold the turn.

I’m not folding to an unknown here. He literally can’t have AJs because we block it. So he’d have to have a weaker Jx holding or 22. This is literally our best bluffcatcher


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