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Basic Flush Draw Question Basic Flush Draw Question

06-22-2019 , 07:29 PM
This almost seems dumb to ask, but how do you generally play a front door flush draw?

For example:
V is competent rec player. Possibly a winning player and knows enough to table select well. We are maybe $1200 effective. He knows I’m solid and I think avoids me for the most part. He raises to $30 in MP (a little higher than standard) and folds to me in SB with A10

I consider a 3 bet but decide to just call. Heads up.

Flop ($60) Q95
I check and he bets $60. A little high so I think he might have a value hand. I call. Either way he c bets here a ton so I’ll peel one.

Turn ($180) 6
I check and he bets $115. I consider a raise but don’t know what that would try and represent. A set? I can’t even have a good combo draw here. And what non spade can I bluff on the river? And even that looks like a horrible busted spade draw. So I fold.

I think because I learned to play limit first back in the day I look at flush draws like a math problem and these days I’m trying to think of how to win the pot without showdown or get paid in full.

Not sure if there is even a question here so if someone who’s better than me would like to explain what I should be thinking I’d love to hear it.

Marsh
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06-22-2019 , 10:35 PM
As always, "it depends"

Important issues are: Fold equity, position, stack sizes

Is villain wimpy? Will he fold easy to pressure/check raise? If he has a hand like KK (without a spade) we have 12 outs which is almost 50% so very little fold equity is needed. But if he is a worse player than us we should probably avoid coin flips.

When we're this deep(I assume this is 2/5) it's usually wrong to make big bets/check raises on just a draw. If he doesn't fold flop and blank turn hits we're screwed. Aggression works best here with stack sizes ~50-100 BB.

Also Villain range as always is a big deal. What kind of player is he?

It all comes down to "playing poker". As played, I fold turn here, our odds are shot.

There isn't always a standard play here, Get to know your villain. Another option is ~1/2 pot donk on flop to see cheap turn and evaluate villains reaction to flop donk.
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06-23-2019 , 02:03 AM
I wouldn't fold turn vs the action described. Folding isn't terrible though
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06-23-2019 , 11:02 AM
My read on this particular player is very sticky with a value hand or a big draw. Not weak. His range can be wide when he limps, but tightens up to pairs, broadway cards, suited aces, and probably suited connectors. If he makes a good read that I'm on the flush draw then he will barrel light, but he usually slows down with me in particular.

@Jarret - How do you win the hand if a non-spade hits the river? Just bet $300 and hope he has a middling pair or J10?
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06-23-2019 , 11:45 AM
I did an implied odds analysis with your turn flush draw, which allows for reverse implied odds.

On the turn, you have to call 115 with a pot = 295. This requires a showdown equity of 115/410= 28%, and your flush draw has about 20%. So, on an immediate odds basis, a call is not +EV.

I assumed that if you hit your flush on the river you will win 90% of the time if villain calls. The only way you lose is if the board pairs so you lose to a full house (or quads) with villain having a set or two pair. You can show that a bet on the river of about 330 with villain calling at least 80% of the time gives you the implied odds to make the turn call.
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06-23-2019 , 02:24 PM
I'm more inclined to 3bet pf here instead of call in the SB with the intention of cbetting near 100% of the time if called.

A big bet on the flop suggests a nervousness of the FD. That's bad news because it got unlikely he's going to pay you off much to chase. With the ace, you've got 3 additional potential outs so I'd call. A raise is optimistic since the FE is low as played.
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06-23-2019 , 09:55 PM
What do you mean when you say you can't have a good combo draw on the turn? Why not?

Also, what about leading the flop? You are over $1100 deep so it can't be that bad.
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06-23-2019 , 09:57 PM
Being totally serious, you should pick up a copy of The Theory of Poker Applied to No Limit. This situation is analyzed in the book. As played you probably want to bet the flop. I think there is merit in the 3 bet advice pre flop.
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06-24-2019 , 05:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarshMan114
@Jarret - How do you win the hand if a non-spade hits the river? Just bet $300 and hope he has a middling pair or J10?
You're thinking about the spot wrong. It's not about "how do I win if I don't hit my flush".

-We can have the best hand already and have some EV when it goes check/check on the river
-When we hit our flush we mostly stack all lower flushes and sets should still bet on flush rivers
-We have additional equity with our ace and can check/call on an ace river.
-There are direct odds for the pot.

It's not a super high-ev spot when we are oop here so like I said, folding isn't terrible, just losing some EV.
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06-24-2019 , 05:54 PM
Cool man. I see what your saying.

Statmanhal, you aren’t wrong, but I’ve noticed as you play bigger games vs better opponents the direct odds aren’t as cut and dry as you think. You have to play reads and ranges more and per Jarret’s post I could even be ahead here or an A or 10 could be live outs.

Based on this Villian I really like a donk flop bet. I’ll try that next time.

Marsh
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06-24-2019 , 06:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarshMan114

Based on this Villian I really like a donk flop bet. I’ll try that next time.

Marsh
If you are donking with sets in this spot and the V is aware of this I think it's a good play.

If not, then I like this idea in theory, but in practice, I think this V is going to raise the donk bet a lot on this flop and it kind of puts you in the same situation as checking and facing his flop bet. So, what are you doing on the turn if he raises?

This is the reason I prefer a check raise and turn lead (or turn lead if flop checks through).
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