1/3 NLHE 9 handed

V - Balding nit I haven't seen in awhile. This guy gets cobwebs growing on his stack while he waits to double up. Seen him tilt when he waited 2 hours folding for AA and got it in pre and lost to AKs. When he has it he's not afraid to push his aggression. My main exploit is to fold until I have small PPs IP and then try to gut him. His range is so narrow that basically I can read his hand every time. Like 6-4-3r he has 50% overpairs 50% A-high. A-K-Q he has all sets 2/pair etc. You get my drift.

--- V has 443$, SB covers, BB has 350$ish, Banana has 750$ ---

V opens 15 from MP, folds to me on the button and I call with A 2 (this may just be a fold at high frequency but I forgot who this guy is in the moment), SB and BB loose passives call. 4-ways IP.

Flop 60 - K T 4

SB checks, BB loose passive unknown donks 25, V raises to 85, Banana calls (?), SB folds, BB calls.

Turn 315 - A

BB checks, V jams 343....

I guess I'm confused as to why this isn't a snapfold, Banana? Per your reads, V only has AA,KK,AK here on this kind of action. Open 5x MP, Raises 1/2 pot donk >3X, and then shoves a double FD turn.

If that's V's range, we've 19% vs only them, and we need ~35% or so. BB's folding in a microsecond, no? Do you think V's doing this with some AQ or QQ? I don't think they're spazzing enough to try for our draw.

I don't mind the calls, either PF or flop. But now fold.

Not in love being the first caller preflop, but not going to hate as we have the Button, the price / stacks are decent, and we might be cool with whatever happens behind us in the blinds (~nutmining multiway vs getting stealy postflop HU).

I fold the flop. Door is still open / getting reraised would suck. We're getting very poor immediate odds. IO ain't great due to cost and obviousness of draw.

Seems like a trivial turn fold. Very good chance we're only on a 8 outer (assuming dude behind isn't sucking up outs) and we're getting less than 2:1 (less than 3:1 at best if dude behind overcalls) and we need ~5:1 to breakeven.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Pre: Don't hate the call, but on the marginal side.

I agree with GG, IO on the flop I don't think is likely good enough. I think it's a fold.

River is a pure calc. He has precisely AA, KK, AK. You're not getting the odds against that range.

So I guess what I want to take away from this is:

1. What IO do I need to be calling with suited aces IP like this?

2. Given the layover from the blinds (both are fairly loose passive, a check-raise at any point is the mortal nuts), do I have the odds to call the 85? Folding seems so nitty but I know I'm underfolding a lot post-flop when I compare HHs to some of the better players in my room.

Fold pre. Fold flop. Turbo fold turn.

It’s not just the direct IO - you want callers in between to slow him down postflop and have more potential flushes to cooler. By being the first caller, you are ensuring yourself the worst relative position postflop as blinds will typically check to the raiser, and even when they don’t like in this hand, his strong range allows him to raise the flop and price you out.

Folding against nits is the best strategy to beat them. The rest will be done by the casino rake.

i think pre is fine. the stuff like set mining, implied odds, whatever weird heuristics you guys use to look at pre i think doesn't matter much. you're going to hopefully make better decisions than this guy postflop while ip. some of that will be value betting, a good chunk id imagine will be pushing him off his equity. the blinds dont seem like they're going to squeeze enough where id be looking to fold pre. id imagine at equilirbium its slightly losing to call but id think if he is too straightforward post you're going to way over realize your ev / equity.

flop is whatever. bb line and sizing don't make me think he 3b jams the flop often and you're ip so i'd probably call but i could be convinced it's bad from an immediate ev standpoint. would likely call in game though and think its slightly winning from both a hand and range standpoint. comedy option is to 3b the flop, would think he probably folds worse than KT a good amount of the time but think its probably not best given descriptions of both villains

Can you 3b pre?

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Fold preflop, call flop, fold turn.

I don't like 3! preflop when you know his range is like 99+/AQ+.

I am a little of a nit too and I wouldn't call raises from anyone with A2s unless it was already fairly multiway and fairly deep.

Pre is fine. We want to let the fish in from the blinds, with a hand that can cooler someone, and plays well enough multi-way.

Flop is starting to get debatable, but we should probably fold here. Don't love calling when the LP donks and the nit raises >3x. We'll hate life if the LP 3B's. If we call, we're done with it on the turn if we don't hit our flush.

As played, turn is an insta-fold.

I fold pre but that's just me.

He's a tight nit, and we have a hand we can play either if he was much deeper (but I would still fold to nits waiting for aces) or if there were other callers before us.

Otf it doesn't look like we have too much FE and we're not getting good odds so I would just fold.

As played I fold ott.

If he's really that tight then probably fold, call is worst option agree

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Result:

Yeah no ****. It was a 3b pre.... Reads completely off. Obviously he played it fine

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My main exploit is to fold until I have small PPs IP and then try to gut him. His range is so narrow that basically I can read his hand every time. Like 6-4-3r he has 50% overpairs 50% A-high. A-K-Q he has all sets 2/pair etc. You get my drift.


So your plan is to flop sets when he has overpairs, and/or to bluff him off overpairs on low boards?

Wait, what? The "nit" opened K4o from MP?

He's not a nit, then.

Go home, Banana. You're drunk.

No the nit opened QJdd, the loose passive fish called 15 with K4o

Ah, that makes way more sense. You're sober enough to stay, Banana.

So...overall the hand makes sense given the reads. I think the big takeaway here should be your flop decision. It probably looks okay on paper, but I think our win rate is going to benefit from finding disciplined folds in spots like this.

Part of it is the action, of fish donking and a nit-reg raising. The other part is the stack depths. Our opponents aren't starting out deep enough to think we're going to see the river if the turn isn't a diamond, and we might not even see the turn if fish 3B's. As the stack depths get shorter, even fish tend to intuitively understand the value in fast playing strong hands.

We're cold calling an $85 pot-size raise to see one card when we only have $15 invested in the pot. For every instance when we curse ourselves for folding and seeing a diamond come out, there'll be twice as many when we'll pat ourselves on the back for folding when the flush bricks out. Even if we were super deep, this is a sketchy call.

This is sort of like your 99 hand. We could call the fish donk if we were next to act, but we'd be in the blender if there's a raise behind, and especially if there's a 3B. It's hard to be ahead of two opponents' ranges without a very strong hand, facing this sort of action, at these stack depths.

So, not great call on the flop, but good fold on the turn.

thx doc