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Bad Variance, What do you do? Bad Variance, What do you do?

07-20-2017 , 07:15 PM
a positive way of looking at it indeed!
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07-20-2017 , 07:19 PM
I've been on a heater even though I've been largely card dead for long stretches. You lnow what hand I remember the most?

The hand when I was a donk and hit runner runner to get a boat vs a flopped straight! The best part, I ended up with over 400bb because we were both deep.

It felt so awesome to be the donk that sucked out. That's probably the happiest I've been in a long time. Because I didn't deserve that $1200. But it was mine becaise of pure dumb luck.

Now I take a break when I run bad or play bad. Bit I never get mad at my opponents, for me, I am playing against myself and my bad habbits until I can kill off those bad habbits. I've been working very little on my techical improvement and have been focus on my mental game these past 2 months.

Luckily I have a base from 8 uears ago when i use to 24 table 25nl online that gives me a foundation to rely on. But I honestly don't know all the exact odds anymore or proper spr to call, I just kind of ballpark it and go by my read of my opponents to determine my action.


Losing 3 monster PF hands in a half hour isn't a downswing. But how you handle that half hour can determine if you are going to put yourself on a downswing.

Far too many people under estimate the mental aspect of the game. The worst I've felt after a session is when I won $168. You know why? Because I was up $600 and got sucked out on and lost over $400. I ended up leaving and cashing out ahead but I was in the worst mood because I lost all that money even though I did everything right.

Now I work on avoiding those high and lows and try to just remain constant and focus on playing good long term poker.
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07-20-2017 , 07:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by outdonked
After every lost like you got you should think that you are even. Not down or up but EVEN. Every new hand puts you into a even state. You start over. There it's no beginning or end. Only now. You got to learn to live into the now. What has happen in the previous hand is gone forever. It doesn't exist anymore. It never happen. It never existed. Now you start a new hand and you are even. From now on it matters.
This is excellent for mindset management. Thank you!


Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk
Bad Variance, What do you do? Quote
07-20-2017 , 08:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicagodude
I've had a pretty decent 2 month run at NL 1/2 live in Northwest Indiana. Today, I was at a table with 4 wild players (and me). I tried to stay out of the fray but got AA immediately which lost to 2/6 on the river after I made a set.
Then I lost with AK against 9/7 with the short stack 9/7 all in preflop.
This was followed by losing KK to A10 offsuit and finally with KK losing to AA.
All of this was in 30 minutes and I felt lucky to only be down 200.

My question is what do you guys do when that happens? I'm going to log this in my records and hope that will provide perspective.
details are missing. chances are you did not price out their trash and they got there.
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07-21-2017 , 02:34 AM
I'm getting pretty good about saying "nice hand" and not sulking visibly when the donkage mugs me. I do get pretty silent though. I am trying to remember to just make good decisions and not worry about results if i get it in with the best of it.
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07-21-2017 , 02:36 AM
raised 15 in the game to open for all 4 hands, the AK hand i was reraised by 9/7 and the KK last hand was reraised by AA. I usually open for between 10 and 15. At that table 15.
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07-21-2017 , 05:42 AM
Grunch. If you need to post a thread about losing 100 bbs in a game like that, you have entitlement tilt. You clearly seem to think that because you're in a game with bad players you deserve to win. Get it fixed cause it'll hold you back. I've played 1/2 on and off for four years. I'm pretty sure entitlement tilt was a big reason why it took me four years to move out of 1/2.

Also why would you "try to stay out of the fray" against four wild players? Depending on how deep your game is it sounds like the perfect time to play some pots in position and go for thin thin value, not just nut peddle and hope to triple up.
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07-21-2017 , 06:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordRiverRat
Grunch. If you need to post a thread about losing 100 bbs in a game like that, you have entitlement tilt. You clearly seem to think that because you're in a game with bad players you deserve to win. Get it fixed cause it'll hold you back. I've played 1/2 on and off for four years. I'm pretty sure entitlement tilt was a big reason why it took me four years to move out of 1/2.

Also why would you "try to stay out of the fray" against four wild players? Depending on how deep your game is it sounds like the perfect time to play some pots in position and go for thin thin value, not just nut peddle and hope to triple up.

Entitlement tilt, that's a good phrase and I think it has merit with a lot of poker players. I know I've been guilty of it too, and sometimes it takes a 1-2 week downswing before I realize that I'm suffering from entitlement tilt and that my view of the game during that time period has played a big role in the downswing that I was on.

As for "bad beats", it's all part of the game. Instead of getting aggravated because you lost when you were a huge favorite and you "should" have won the hand, remember that it's not necessarily true.

We all can be guilty from time to time of looking at an individual hand in a vacuum instead of looking at the bigger picture. We have to remember that any time our V has more than 0% equity in the hand, it means that they are supposed to win the hand sometimes. Getting your money in as a 90% favorite and losing isn't a bad beat , it's the game of poker playing out exactly as it should. In the long run we're going to win in that spot much more than we lose, but the math says that we should expect to lose sometimes. I understand very well that it's frustrating when we're losing hands at a much higher frequency than the percentages say we should be, but we just have to keep in mind that hand distribution can't be predicted, and neither can the sample size that we need in order for our actual equity to match our expected equity. The next time you take a beat, if you remind yourself that you were supposed to lose that particular hand sometimes it may put your mind to ease a bit.
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07-21-2017 , 06:52 AM
well because any raise can be reraised with these guys and you need good hands to play.

No, I don't have entitlement tilt. I thought the Tendler book was excellent though and it helped me. Getting KK, AA, KK and AK in 30 minutes in a short-handed game has never happened to me before. The results stunned me. I went home. I'll come back with a better attitude but it was best to end the session right there and then. No other tables were available to move to.
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07-21-2017 , 06:54 AM
looking at my long term results always makes me feel better in the short term. It's another excellent reason to keep records.
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07-21-2017 , 07:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicagodude
but it was best to end the session right there and then. No other tables were available to move to.
You definitely don't want to table change away from a wild game. The variance might be through the roof but so is the EV. Being scared of variance will not make you a good poker player. Just gotta ride it.
Bad Variance, What do you do? Quote
07-21-2017 , 07:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordRiverRat
You definitely don't want to table change away from a wild game. The variance might be through the roof but so is the EV. Being scared of variance will not make you a good poker player. Just gotta ride it.
Huge +1. This topic is good enough to be debated separetely in another thread by my opinion.
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07-21-2017 , 08:00 AM
i agree i tend to do poorly at those tables but the other day i won $200 from a guy who made a huge river bluff so yeah it works both ways but not usually so much of one way in 30 minutes lol
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07-21-2017 , 11:09 AM
How do you lose these hands and only end up down $200??

I am basically immune to tilt, but I do have my moments of anger. I just don't let it affect my play. The hardest thing is not berating my opponents and teaching then something, especially when they make a comment about how badly I played a hand.
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07-21-2017 , 12:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordRiverRat
You definitely don't want to table change away from a wild game. The variance might be through the roof but so is the EV. Being scared of variance will not make you a good poker player. Just gotta ride it.
Not everyone can make the proper adjustments to a "wild" game. If you don't know how to change your game for the occasional maniac table, you can lose everything pretty quickly.
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07-21-2017 , 02:18 PM
actually $160, the table was shortstacked but after i left three of them were over $100--thanks to me!
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07-21-2017 , 02:19 PM
no doubt and i've folded good hands to trash thinking one of the donks had me beat. this led to being a "policeman" and calling one of their hands on the river that got there
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07-21-2017 , 03:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicagodude
actually $160, the table was shortstacked but after i left three of them were over $100--thanks to me!
OMG YOU SHOULD BE JUMPING FOR JOY THAT YOU GOT STACKED 4 TIMES AND ONLY LOST $160!!!
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07-21-2017 , 04:49 PM
LOL, you're 100% right now that i think of it!
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07-21-2017 , 05:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicagodude
it is unprecedented with me i've never had a run like that in 30 minutes since i started playing in 2004.
then you have been extremely fortunate. They happen. And it WILL happen to you again at some point in time.
Bad Variance, What do you do? Quote
07-21-2017 , 05:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicagodude
No, I don't have entitlement tilt.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicagodude
actually $160, the table was shortstacked but after i left three of them were over $100--thanks to me!
Bad Variance, What do you do? Quote
07-21-2017 , 05:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicagodude
actually $160, the table was shortstacked but after i left three of them were over $100--thanks to me!
Yeah, I'm not sure I waste my time sitting at a table like this.

Harrah's in N. Indiana, right? One reason I never make the trip there.
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07-21-2017 , 06:47 PM
in 30 minutes? I hope you're right, next time i better win at least one lol
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07-21-2017 , 06:48 PM
no majestic star, yeah one of them was bragging "i bought in for $50 only and i don't care." My problem is i'm the anti-dwan i have too much respect for money
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07-21-2017 , 06:48 PM
it's kind of funny when you think about it. No, it's not entitlement tilt.
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