1/2 200 max NLHE

Just rebought after losing big flip AIOTF, so the table views me as slightly steamy. $200 effective stacks. V is a pretty typical loose-weak-passive type.

One limp to me in HJ i raise to $10 with KJ V (BTN) calls, limper calls. (pot $33)

Flop QJ4 limper checks, i cbet $16, V calls, limper folds (pot $65)

Turn J 174 eff left, bet $45 to set up PSB river shove, V calls. Should I have played this hand more cautiously? I was planning on shoving basically all non-Q rivers. Thoughts?

the thing is unless Vil is playing lowwer or an internet guy hes not going to understand a PSB so much when it relates to strength/weakness.

hes just going to see a big ass bet OTR so it must be a big ass hand.

IMO i owuld have PSB the turn then its only a 100 or so after a 65 bet, looks better then 45 to a 130 bet.

also betting more on the turn prices him more cause he could easily have Ax diamond here as well as KQ no diamonds and shutdown if a diamond does fall.

When you shove, you have to ask yourself "What hands will call my shove?"

Will villain call your river shove with KQo?

No. Only hand that calls your river shove is a flush.

So you shouldn't be planning on shoving river, you should be planning on betting 1/2-2/3 pot on river.

I'd bet more on both flop and turn.

Why not just check behind on the river? I hate reopening the betting to tricky players with hands we probably have to show down and even a loose passive fishy doesn't like to call 3 barrels with a frush/paired board with top pair.

i would rather pot flop, bet HP on turn, shove river.

can you guys explain your reasoning for these bet sizings?

On flop i am setting up a way to get the most fold equity from Qx. Once i hit the J though now i dont want that same FE. So i bet HP or maybe slightly more normal sizing.

but we are ahead of Qx OTF (albeit slightly)

We are behind Qx unless we get it all in otf since Qx is not paying us off if a 4th diamond hits. I like the line you used OP btw and like you I would be shoving any non Q river for value.

but we're not paying off Qx if a diamond (or J or K) doesn't hit either

but if brick falls on turn where are we? I will have set up to shove turn and make Qx have a stack decision.

Its like having AKss on a 8 7 3 ---- 2 spade flop. Yea we can be ahead of 99
here, but i want to setup a turn shove for the reasonable amt of time we miss on turn.

ok, i see. so we're doing this with the expectation that Qx (in this thread's hand) or 99 overpair (in the spade draw hand) will often call our PSB OTF. seems reasonable for 99 there, not so much a weak Qx in the OP's hand, unless it contains some decent diamond.

but then we don't mind a fold OTF from Qx, cuz we're pushing such a marginal edge to begin with, we can scoop it right there without incurring much of a loss in the long run if Qx sometimes calls and then folds to our turn shove. is that the right analysis?

Its just a normal semi bluff, we don't have a made hand yet and are rarely getting paid if we make one. We are never getting paid if we hit a diamond and we can make a weak Qx fold pretty easily. It's like betting/raising the ace of a monotone flop on the flop because calling kills our implieds when we hit and gives us zero FE when we miss.

We're slightly ahead but if we play this hand weakly we probably fold on the turn when we miss and win nada when we hit.

Not bothering to think too deep on this but in my head I see it like; Say we're 60% otf,

30% of the time we make our hand OTT and average win an additional 20% of pot
30% of the time we miss and fold since its not that likely we get odds to draw vs a turn bet and again we have no implieds to make up for it

So because of this the other alternative of playing our hand fast is a lot more preferable. We're slightly ahead but if we scoop the money dead in the pot we've already made about the same amount as if we got it in in the long run and on top of that we often bluff the hand ott and even if we do get put in its not the end of the world.

Moreover we would play our made hands like this and this spot is common enough that even at 1/2 we need to be pretty balanced i think.

thx for the in-depth post papagavin