1/2, 200 eff., have only been at table for a few orbits

Villain in question I've played with before, but until this session I hadn't fully analyzed his play, as there was easier money at the table. He plays loose, and will limp lots of trash like Q7, J8, etc. At the time of this hand in question I didn't know much more, aside from that he will call flop and turn light, but isn't really a calling station. He's kind of a unique sort of player, but basically, he has a pretty wide preflop range in this hand. Villain knows my image is very tight, and when I'm betting strong I'm almost always showing down a strong hand.

A few limpers to me in LP with A3
I limp behind, BB checks.

Flop ($10) comes A83

One check to V who leads from early MP 10$. I just call. Everyone else folds.

Turn ($30) is the J
V leads out 20, I raise to 50, he calls. Honestly his call here doesn't tell me much, he has at least an Ace.

River (130) K

V puts me all in for my remaining 110 or so. I'm not happy here. I'm excluding AK and AJ from his range. Given the action 33, and 88 are quite possible, A8, and A3 are possible, as is J8. I don't think he's limping J3 or K3, and he's not leading the flop with KJ. A8 of spades is the only hand he could have here that made a flush, so I'm not worried about it. QT for a straight is also just highly unlikely given the action.

So it's 88, 33, A8, A3, or J8, to my best estimation. However, I don't have a ton of confidence in this range. Nonetheless I'm sure he has at least 2 pair.
Anyway, I semi-tanked and folded. I think it was the right decision, but it definitely bothered me for a bit afterwards. I'm also thinking it may have been better if I had raised on the flop, or as played just called the turn. In fact, I definitely should have just called the turn if I was folding to a shove on the river, I really didn't plan ahead enough there. And I wasn't afraid of the flush draw, I just didn't see him having it. If I didn't raise, I could have just called off a bet on the river. On the other hand, I know he tends to call raises very light, and then will check the river, so I was going for solid value here, and honestly was not expecting the shove at all.

I think he has every combo of AX of spades I his range,I'd raise flop as played its close...but a fold.

Yeah you're right about the Ax combos actually, idk how I overlooked that. He would limp them pre, and lead out the flop because of the A. I don't know why I was thinking otherwise, just an oversight. In any case, that only makes matters worse on the river. Raising the flop probably can't be a bad idea, though I didn't want to fold him out on such a drawless board.

Most villains at this level will call a raise on the flop with any ace.

Based on range given its mathematically a call. 9 j8 vs 4 sets and 6 A8, plus 4 chops. Not even close. If it's a fold then you must be discounting j8 massively given your pot odds

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Yeah, I know, I stoved it last night. I like to post my hands before just getting down the raw math of it myself, but anyway yes, I was surprised to see I have 47% equity against a range of A8,A3,88,33,J8. I shouldn't have been surprised, guess I need get back to working on figuring ranges/combinatorics quickly on the spot.

However, it's turns out that my range was incorrect, he could in fact have any Ax as high as AT. If I include this my equity is 36%. So still a call, but not as obvious. Throw some spazz or bluffing in there and it's not quite as close.

There's zillions of posts similar to yours where someone raise-folds and everyone seems to think they are well-played. But I think you came to the correct conclusion.

Your hand is moderate strength. There's nothing wrong with just calling 3-streets.

If you're going to raise, raise very strong hands, and bluffs. Don't raise moderately strong hands just so you lose more money when you fold.

When you raise the turn it should be as a bluff, or because you want to be able to shove the river without over-betting the pot.

He can also have 8x of spades I reckon.

I'm shocked you need a computer to calc your equity against given range. You just need to be able to count to about ten and ratio the pot to the bet size.

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Maybe looking at a different angle here ...

Loose limpers abound .. how does he play Flop and beyond? What would he be leading out with here? Does he 'know' you don't have an Ace since you didn't raise PF?

You say he 'knows' you have a hand when you bet strong. You did nothing strong here IMO. You didn't raise Flop (most of us wouldn't IP though) and your Turn raise is very small ($30 into $70) and 'invites' all possible 1 pair/draw hands to continue.

So we have to deal with a guy who has a wide range and bet Flop, bet Turn, bet into a tight raiser with a PSB on River. You have $138 left into $280 now.

Not so sure why you are leaving AK/AJ out of his range unless you are pretty sure he raises PF with these. Would he ever lead out with 9Ts on Flop? He is betting right into your range on the River!! You describe him as calling light, but what is his image when betting?

I guess I would tend to ignore the 'stove' in this spot (but I do that a lot) and fold out. If V is really pushing the edge of your style to this limit then I guess, well played V!! These spots come down to V image of Hero way more than a range IMO.

Does V truly expect Hero to fold out based on image and action? V really has no choice but to bet 'pot' on River. Was Hero trying to protect an Ace with (weak) Turn raise and V is now bluffing the flush? Does V 'know' that Hero is 'never' raising Turn with a flush draw and can safely bet into him with AJ? But the River was an over-card, does Hero 'never' limp with AK/AQ?

Based on Hero's own image of Hero and the V action (if he actually holds that image to be true) I am compelled to fold out here.

Hero needs to raise more on the Turn (and gii) or just let V continue to bet out on River. Hero has position and will get a chance to bet River if V checks.

Dont mind the limp ...
Might punish the loose player on Flop with a raise when OOP, but IP ok to flat and 'let' him hang himself.
Probably raising Turn some (but bigger if I do), but calling is probably best.
Almost always calling River if I flat Turn.

AP ... I am giving V credit to 'know' my image and folding unless my image includes folding to pressure on River, then I 'sigh' call expecting to lose. GL

I think the fold is fine as played.

I probably would have raised to $30-$40 on the flop and tried to gii on turn or just called him down.

1., 2. Calls down light, as I mentioned, as for when he is betting, at the time of the hand I didn't have a great read on him, but I know and knew that his betting range is also a bit light. By the river he has at least two pair; when he leads the flop he could have any pair or better.
3. No, he probably thinks I have an Ace. In fact he probably "knows" I have an ace. He should have strongly considered the possibility that I had a set, but I'm really not sure if he did, or if he did he discounted it because I could also just have an ace.
4. I was perhaps a bit misleading here; I said he knows me to play tight. True my raise was small, but really the situation is a bit more complicated. I should have definitely mentioned this too; villain is at least somewhat aware of other players possible holdings and will analyze the action (well or not, I don't know), BUT, when he has a strong hand, he often just can't get away from it. He ends up just playing the strength of his hand unless facing serious aggression and/or a scary board.
5. He is definitely raising AK, and almost always AJ. Would he lead out 9Ts? No, I really doubt it, 9Ts on the flop is junk, I would have noticed if I'd seen him play bare backdoor draws this way.
6. See point 4; when he hits 2 pair or better he plays it strong. Other times he can be cautious; another thing I didn't mention but that subconsciously influenced my decision, is that he didn't hesitate or really take more than 10 seconds to think before leading turn, calling my raise and then shoving the river. He didn't just jump on it, but he didn't have to think much. He's now in "I have a 2 pair+ and am stacking off" mode, it seems to me. Either that or he's drawing. Basically, he both calls and bets light. He bets lots of flops when checked to if he hit it in some significant way.
8. I can't be sure, but no I really doubt it. I just don't really think he's confident enough that I'll fold to make that bluff, but more significantly, it seems obvious to me that he has a strong hand.
9. This is what it looked like, sure; a badly sized raise that wants to "protect" but doesn't want to commit too much to the pot. What it actually was, a good sized raise if I'm trying to get a call and set up a nice pot sized shove on the river, a bad raise given that I hadn't thought all this through before making the raise, and wasn't prepared to call a shove. Is he now bluffing the flush? Well, what is he bluffing with? I don't see him turning a one pair hand into a bluff here, and the action on earlier streets tells me he either has a made hand or a flush draw, which got there. So I still think my read, even if not my play, on the river was correct; probably 2 pair, maybe a set, maybe made his flush.
10. With an A on the board the river isn't exactly and overcard? It hits AK, yes, but he's never, ever, believing that I limped AK in LP. And in fact I don't, hardly ever, it's something I'll do like 1% of the time if other villains in the pot have some notion of hand reading and I think it's a good time to mix it up.


So! It was good for me to write all this out, but the conclusions I think are the same. Most importantly, I didn't put him on a specific enough range until it was too late, which leads me to making the mistake of raising turn, where now reconsidering, I would just call turn and snap off any reasonable river bet. The turn raise was small and weak, but actually, if I raise big on the turn against this villain (like 80+, I estimate), that's the kind of action that will make him reconsider the strength of his hand, so I don't really want to do that. My raise size was perfect if I was very confident of having the best hand, which at time I was, and this was the mistake.

As played, the fold on the river, I really don't know. I discount J8 a bit, but how much? He's could certainly be leading out on the flop with it, but despite what I've written about villain, I don't think he's doing it all the time. He is always leading 2 pair+ and probably a pair + backdoor FD. I'm still a bit at a loss, but that's what I get for raising the turn.