Background: Driving through western PA. Stop in a random casino in Bumf*ck, PA because I'm a degenerate. Start playing $2-5 with $500 and work it up to $1,700 value-betting semi-literate rednecks.

I would make some comment about my image, but honestly no one at the table really notices and/or cares. After six hours, the following takes place eight-handed:

Drunk Spewy Redneck No. 1 (DSR1): Limps
Almost Competent Redneck (ACR): Limps
Drunk Spewy Redneck No. 2 (DSR2): Limps
Hijack Redneck: Folds

Hero raises to $25 with QJ

Button and blinds fold, ACR ($1,316 behind) and DSR2 call.

Flop ($82): A T 8

ACR: Checks
DSR2: Checks
Hero: $50
ACR: Calls
DSR2: Folds

Turn ($182): 4

ACR: Checks
Hero: $125
ACR: Calls

River ($432): 9

ACR: Checks
Hero: $400
ACR: Gives a brief, but horribly stilted, speech about how he won't let me push him around and shoves for $1,116 total.
Hero: Mucks

My analysis: This is the mostly-competent redneck. 95% of the time this is a flush (at this level, you have to account for the 5% of his range that is just random stupidity that I still beat -- sets that decided to "slow play" the dripping wet board, stubborn Kx hands that ignore the odds and suicidally check-shove the river when they miss, etc.).

And my QJs blocks almost all good flushes that aren't the nuts.

Maybe I'm wrong, but Kxs (7 combos) is a big part of ACR's pre-flop limping range and I don't think he's shoving fourth-nut (97, 96, maybe 95?) after I pot the river. And it's even less likely that he's shoving one of the baby flushes.

I only need to be right 27% of the time, but I just don't see how I get there.

The only thing that gives me pause is that little speech he made. He *clearly* wanted a call. But if he was dumb enough to think that his ridiculous acting job was going to work, then maybe he was also dumb enough to desperately want a call with 43 . . .

So, what's the verdict? Still a reasonable fold? Or did I level myself and piss away hundreds in equity?

The bet on the river is the one that gets me is so big that given his stack makes calling a shove a really tough spot.
What were your range for him on the flop and turn?
What about the river what do you expect for him to be calling your bet with?
Is dont really know what I would call the river but given the way you bet would be a sigh call and even then i am not sure i could be calling.

Do we really want to bet the entire night on one potential cooler hand where we received "The Speech"?

Just consider it a "wire from Meyer" and be content with our fold.

Quiz for the younger readers here:

As a card-carrying geezer, I know the origin of "A Wire from Meyer".

Do you?

Given how this guy (and the table/culture in general) was behaving, my ranging was as follows:

Pre-flop: ATC
After he calls the flop: All flushes, but tilted towards the nuts ("slow-playing" non-nut flushes did seem to be a possibility here), scared two pairs, any A, some stubborn Ts, K with a pair, a few K without a pair, a few random floats.
After he calls the turn: Flushes, two pairs (now including A4), big aces, some K hands.

After he checks the river, my main concern is getting value from the bluff catchers (and as an added bonus some of the scared/trapping baby flushes). This was also a guy who had a habit of calling light (sometimes correctly, but often not: he had earlier called a pot-sized river shove with AKo against my 77 on a A74-J-8 rainbow board).

So I don't feel bad about the river sizing. I ended the session a significant winner and big, chunky, "suspicious" river bets were most of how I got there.

You think he was just going to call with a smaller flush?

Don't get me wrong -- if you're older than me, you're living on borrowed time -- but this sounds like a story I'd like to hear.

Wasn't able to find it with a google search, so apparently it's not widely known.

It's not even in the Urban Dictionary. First time that's failed me. I thought all knowledge was contained in the internet. Hive mind, schmive shmind.

**** and I thought I was old.

Had to backdoor the answer and google Meyer Lansky.

I'd call this. Most likely he has a small flush. He's putting you on the K.

No way would he risk not betting the river with the nut flush.

Wow... I can't imagine betting the river to fold!
I'f you are betting the river, that means you think he has a small flush right?? Why else would be call.

(As Always, I place a little bit of my mentality in the V, cuz I'm not there so have my own read)

If I bet this large, I'm excited if he spazz shoves. I'd probably bet way less, or more likely, check to him allowing him a chance to bluff.

i can't be the only one thinking this is a crazy fold. the odds of flopping a flush is 118:1 and the chances of both players flopping s flush is something like 500:1. Also some straight draws get there on the river so he could be spazzing with those. If your beat it's just a sick cooler

Indeed.

Let us go back to the 1960's when I was 19 and looked 14.

The Vegas casinos didn't much care, I was allowed to play what and where I wanted.

At the crap table, during a hand, I placed $20 (a lot of dough for a child-like college kid) on the 10, paid the $1 I think it was to get the proper odds.

Very next roll, yup, a 10, collected my 2 to 1 payoff as the stick man said, "ten, ten, came easy, pay the shooter, he got a 'wire from Meyer'."

Meyer Lansky was essentially the chief accountant for the wise guys. To get "a Wire from Meyer" meant that a person's bet turned out as though he had heard directly from the little big man what number was coming next.

You can find his biography at Amazon.com

Product Details
Little Man: Meyer Lansky and the Gangster Life Sep 1991
by Robert Lacey
$12.99new(23 offers)
$0.01used(166 offers)
4.3 out of 5 stars 36

Give the odds to call after you bet the river it seem like a sigh call here maybe he got some straights and baby flushes in his range

Whats the Casino btw? I've played a bunch of PA casinos

I'd guess it's not Rivers. Maybe one of the other card rooms outside Pittsburgh like Meadows? Or maybe OP was lost and actually in West Virginia.

Related: I don't think it's a good fold. V has to have Kxs exactly to be ahead.
V had to limp w it, call a raise with it, and flop the nuts with it, in a hand where we also flop a flush.
Then V has to check flop, check turn, and check river with the nuts.

Getting out flopped flush over flush happens. Obviously, rare to have it be exactly nuts vs second nuts, esp with the ace on board.
But, does V really check the nuts three times? I doubt it.
And, if H thinks V capable of such a play, maybe check behind the river.

But as played, H bet $400 into $432, V raised about $700 on top. Pot is $1900, have to call $700. I don't think V is bluffing but he can make this play with a small flush, a set, even two pair.
Could this be the nuts? Of course. River check raise is always a big hand. Does that mean it's the nuts? Maybe it's a great fold. I don't think I find the fold button though.
And, not for nothing, planning this hand: once I bet pot on the river, not folding. I could maybe bet/fold smaller or even make a scared check behind but bet pot, fold to raise? Doubt that's ever my line in this spot.