ATdd in CO with Th exposed
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 1,060
1/2. 250 effective.
V1 is tight passive. I saw him limp with AQo
Hero has a tight image, I've played for an hour and have raised once.
Th exposed. Folds to V1 in MP. V1 limps. Folds to hero with AdTd in the CO. Hero?
I sadly gave a tell as I paused to consider how the exposed Th effected my odds. A few seconds was not enough time. How much difference does one card make? Any idea?
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 2,505
The tell isn't as big as you assume ... you know why you paused, everyone else just knows you paused. Even if they "know" it was due to the Th they don't know if it's because you have a T or you have Ah*h or 9d8d.
In general I'd play AT/KT the same for an open, and fold slightly more if I'd call them. Play QT/JT/T9/T8 basically identically but would be more likely to fold QJ/98. The hand that really sucks is TT.
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 26,561
Yeah, I'd still raise here. You have position on a tight passive limper, good overall position, and a decent hand, even with one of your outs exposed.
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 1,524
V1 sounds like gobbledygeek. folding pre might be best, although feels super nitty and probably impossible at game speed. i wouldnt hate just limping here.
if you raise, raise small to like $10 and obv fold to a limp 3b.
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 6,250
The simple math is that you have roughly a 32% to hit a pair or better with 2 different cards. This goes down to 28% with 1 card exposed. This is ignoring flushes/straights and draws. Since your taking out a card that can't help you for those things it slightly improves your chances but it's fractional because your base chance is low.
Practically the difference is trivial when your heads up if you raise. You will be taking down a fair portion of hands preflop or with flop c-bets. The importance is higher if there are multiple people involved, because your chance of taking down uncontested goes down.
It can also matter more if it's a card that makes up a good portion of villain's range. This mostly means aces. This is very villain dependent because most over estimate the effect on their chance of hitting but at the same time some become very suspicious and think your trying to bluff them out of the hand.
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 1,060
Results: Hero folded. When I do not know what to do in the moment, I follow the precautionary principle and fold. Next time, I'll raise. Thanks for the advice.
