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Assuming we know villains exact range, what is the correct play? Assuming we know villains exact range, what is the correct play?

06-30-2012 , 10:50 PM
Let's say a solid player opens in Early Position and we 3-bet with QQ in Late Position and get called.

Assuming we know villains exact range is (JJ, TT, 99, 88, AK, AQ).

Flop is J98... What is our best play here?

Our opponent either has a set and we are dominated, or he missed and we are way ahead.

It seems betting will only get called by better, but we shouldn't check and let villain draw at a cheap overcard...?
Assuming we know villains exact range, what is the correct play? Quote
06-30-2012 , 11:02 PM
Bet/fold small
Assuming we know villains exact range, what is the correct play? Quote
06-30-2012 , 11:45 PM
It's going to depend on how our villain plays postflop, but if he's your typical fit-or-fold type then I'd b/f for ~1/2 pot on the flop.
Assuming we know villains exact range, what is the correct play? Quote
07-01-2012 , 01:52 AM
i think it depends on what villain's action is to us... we need this piece of info, since we're IP in this hand

if he bets... do we raise? do we flat?
if he checks... do we bet? do we check back?

if he bets, im flatting otf
if he checks, im most likely bet folding
Assuming we know villains exact range, what is the correct play? Quote
07-01-2012 , 01:55 AM
So you guys are basically saying bet/fold right... how much do we bet 1/2 pot? and what if Villain just calls our bet on the flop? are we going into check/fold mode?
Assuming we know villains exact range, what is the correct play? Quote
07-01-2012 , 03:52 AM
TT has 6 outs, AQ has 3 outs, AK has 6 outs... say there's $60 in the pot, $25 should get the job done in terms of denying proper odds to draw.
Assuming we know villains exact range, what is the correct play? Quote
07-01-2012 , 04:01 AM
Here's something you may find of interest:

Board: Jd 9h 8s

equity
Hand 0: 64.185% { QcQd }
Hand 1: 35.815% { JJ-88, AQs+, AQo+ }

So even if he flats his entire range on the flop we're still getting value
Assuming we know villains exact range, what is the correct play? Quote
07-01-2012 , 04:22 AM
Ok... you're missing super key info here.

What are the stack sizes and what is the size of the pot on the flop? The dynamic is of course also important. How do we perceive villain and how does he perceive us?

But assuming he's an unknown TAG:

If effective stacks are only $75 or less on the flop and there is $25 out there, I'm probably just going to bet and insta get it in - and privately not be too happy but oh well. (but often I'm playing with a hyperlag image and villains are frequently calling me too wide preflop and then tilt-jamming on me with air because they put me on the 74o).

If stacks are around $125, I probably bet/fold.

If stacks are around $400, I probably check it back expecting one more bet to be put into the pot at some point (and will probably be prepared to pay off two smallish bets). It should be a scary flop for villain too. But if he bombs the turn and then bombs the river again, I would consider a fold on the river. Its not easy for guys at low stakes to make this kind of move with a hand worse than ours. Even AJ should consider leading the turn and then check/calling the river.

My honest opinion is that if stack sizes isn't one of the first things you think about here... you're doing something wrong.

Last edited by Nogyong; 07-01-2012 at 04:39 AM.
Assuming we know villains exact range, what is the correct play? Quote
07-01-2012 , 04:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rusty Bumwaters
Here's something you may find of interest:

Board: Jd 9h 8s

equity
Hand 0: 64.185% { QcQd }
Hand 1: 35.815% { JJ-88, AQs+, AQo+ }

So even if he flats his entire range on the flop we're still getting value
Why would he always flat AQ on flop
Assuming we know villains exact range, what is the correct play? Quote
07-01-2012 , 04:32 AM
Nvm I was lazy and read hand wrong he prolly would, carry on
Assuming we know villains exact range, what is the correct play? Quote
07-01-2012 , 09:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rusty Bumwaters
Here's something you may find of interest:

Board: Jd 9h 8s

equity
Hand 0: 64.185% { QcQd }
Hand 1: 35.815% { JJ-88, AQs+, AQo+ }

So even if he flats his entire range on the flop we're still getting value
Thank you for stoving.

This is really all this question is about. Even if he calls with draws and made hands, you're still ahead. So it is a bet.

The only card you should be worried about is the 7 on the turn, assuming he folds AK on the flop.
Assuming we know villains exact range, what is the correct play? Quote
07-01-2012 , 09:19 PM
Yeah I'm gonna start stoving everything now that I finally figured out how to change the weighting of hands by eliminating combos of certain suits. Not only does it present more information than typing ranges out, it's also easier
Assuming we know villains exact range, what is the correct play? Quote
07-01-2012 , 10:58 PM
Sklansky and Miller all the way here.

The more precisely you can narrow your opponents range, the less you have to bet to offer incorrect odds. Bet/fold smaller than normal here.
Assuming we know villains exact range, what is the correct play? Quote
07-01-2012 , 11:32 PM
you better have his range narrowed extremely well

a lot of times they have a small pp
Assuming we know villains exact range, what is the correct play? Quote
07-01-2012 , 11:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
Thank you for stoving.

This is really all this question is about. Even if he calls with draws and made hands, you're still ahead. So it is a bet.

The only card you should be worried about is the 7 on the turn, assuming he folds AK on the flop.
Our current equity doesn't have much to do with whether a bet is in order.

What hands does he call with, what hands does he fold, what hands are better, is he likely to buff raise, and how will we respond?

What's the value in betting?
Assuming we know villains exact range, what is the correct play? Quote
07-02-2012 , 12:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PayOffWizard1987
Let's say a solid player opens in Early Position and we 3-bet with QQ in Late Position and get called.

Assuming we know villains exact range is (JJ, TT, 99, 88, AK, AQ).

Flop is J98... What is our best play here?

Our opponent either has a set and we are dominated, or he missed and we are way ahead.

It seems betting will only get called by better, but we shouldn't check and let villain draw at a cheap overcard...?
Where I play, betting gets called by AJ, TT, and a few other hands that call a 3-bet depending on the V.

Even against a TAG I am betting here FOR VALUE. Even if he has us beat and just calls (a mistake) with a hand that beats us we can still suckout
Assuming we know villains exact range, what is the correct play? Quote
07-02-2012 , 01:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by au4all
Our current equity doesn't have much to do with whether a bet is in order.

What hands does he call with, what hands does he fold, what hands are better, is he likely to buff raise, and how will we respond?

What's the value in betting?
Here's our equity vs his check/calling range:

Board: Jd 9h 8s

Hand 0: 67.350% { QcQd }
Hand 1: 32.650% { TT, 88, AQs, AQo }

Against his c/r range { JJ, 99} our equity is essentially zero since we fold
And we'll say he folds combos of AK to our cbet

The total # of combos in his range otf is
16 AK
8 AQ
6 TT
3 JJ
3 99
3 88

He folds 16/39
He calls 17/39 with 32% equity
He raises 6/39 and we fold

So when we bet we eliminate his equity with AK 16/39 times which shows us a profit of 28% x $60 (his equity times pot size assuming an initial open to 5bbs and a 3 bet to 15bbs minus rake in 1/2 nl) = $16.8

When he calls assuming a cbet of $25 we gain $25 x 68% = $17

When he raises we lose the $25

so 16/39 times we win $16.80 = $6.89
17/39 we win $17 = $7.41
6/39 we lose $25 = -$3.85

Net $10.45 profit on our $25 investment (cbet)

That's making the very large assumption that the pot gets checked down the times that he calls, but you can only go so far with the math w/o assumptions
Assuming we know villains exact range, what is the correct play? Quote

      
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