Quote:
Originally Posted by au4all
Our current equity doesn't have much to do with whether a bet is in order.
What hands does he call with, what hands does he fold, what hands are better, is he likely to buff raise, and how will we respond?
What's the value in betting?
Here's our equity vs his check/calling range:
Board: Jd 9h 8s
Hand 0: 67.350% { QcQd }
Hand 1: 32.650% { TT, 88, AQs, AQo }
Against his c/r range { JJ, 99} our equity is essentially zero since we fold
And we'll say he folds combos of AK to our cbet
The total # of combos in his range otf is
16 AK
8 AQ
6 TT
3 JJ
3 99
3 88
He folds 16/39
He calls 17/39 with 32% equity
He raises 6/39 and we fold
So when we bet we eliminate his equity with AK 16/39 times which shows us a profit of 28% x $60 (his equity times pot size assuming an initial open to 5bbs and a 3 bet to 15bbs minus rake in 1/2 nl) = $16.8
When he calls assuming a cbet of $25 we gain $25 x 68% = $17
When he raises we lose the $25
so 16/39 times we win $16.80 = $6.89
17/39 we win $17 = $7.41
6/39 we lose $25 = -$3.85
Net $10.45 profit on our $25 investment (cbet)
That's making the very large assumption that the pot gets checked down the times that he calls, but you can only go so far with the math w/o assumptions