Disagree on the nut advantage, especially if you're asserting V is passive. They'll overlimp 99/1010 often, yeah? Both V and H have top 2 sets, TPTK, but V may have bottom set and 2pr as well. Actually, I'm not convinced we have as large of an equity advantage as you say, either. I think gtoW is factoring in our position more than us having an equity/nut advantage on this board.

Not saying they can't have them, just you have it at 100% frequency and for them it's discounted even if it's only by 10%. So you still have the advantage.

Just raw equity. In general when you have 2 over cards and bd straight draw and fd you have enough equity to call most CR sizes, unless of course they're super nits only CRing sets/two pairs and no draws.

I know the read wasn't too specific but I think TT and 99 would either raise coming in or call more decisively pre.
Hands like KT-T7, QJ-Q8, A9, K9, Q9, 98, J8, J7 maybe some others are my best guess at his range after the flop call

I don't understand. You said we're not going to get x/r often bc V's are passive. But here you're saying when they do, we should be calling with 2 overs and a bfd? How does that have enough equity against a passive V's x/r range?

I don't see a c/r happening much here, except for T9 and even that is not a sure thing. It's just how this table is playing, maybe if they're strong the c/r lets me off the hook or if weaker/drawing they're afraid of the 3bet.

Sorry yeah that is a little conflicting. In general vs a more "normalish" x/r range you can call this hand type.

But if the villain is indeed passive and only CRing sets and two pair only then you can fold. But again this is a pretty rare situation because like I said even w/ sets people will tend to slow play a board like this.

The main point is you're basically almost never getting CR'd here.

Let's say that instead of betting flop we check. Now on the turn it is checked to us, we bet $30-35?
If he calls and then river comes an offsuit 7 and he checks, bet again or give up?

I would shove river on that line.

We have nutted equity and block the nuts. Great spot to make a massive overbet jam on turn.

Yeah i mean you dont need to convince me that cbetting flop vs fish is exploitative, I used to have a 90%+ cbet range. Ive lowered my cbetting range to 75-80%, but that dropped flop aggression has just turned into turn or river aggression because a lot of similar errors exist on later streets as well.

I agree that checking flop is a more advanced line to maximize value and that betting flop is an easier way to profit, and i think the EVs are pretty similar (flop may even be better). Definitely a good argument for betting flop.

My argument moreso is i think theres nothing wrong with checking flop than that its my recommended line or that its the best line.

I'm betting larger OTT, but I'm probably giving up if we miss OTR. I suppose we could make a case for bombing the river, but like I said above, only if V is capable of folding 2pr(they don't have to have 2pr, mind you, just the ability to fold it)

For sure youd bet here. As i said in another post, population wayyy over probes on the turn, they will never check a K ott, so their calling range is weak and gonna be almost all draws and weak pairs. Also if they do hit they are way too scared to check river cuz you might check back, so they also will never have like 86 for a rivered straight. You can just make a PSB for like $100 and the only hands that call you on this is T7/97.

PRE - seems fine.

FLOP - c-betting or checking back both seem fine, but I would think V has more sets and top 2 here, so checking back seems marginally better, maybe.

If we do bet, I'm not sure if this is a board we'd want to bet smaller or bigger. But I would guess bigger, because it's somewhat connected and dynamic. We might bet 2/3 or full pot here, HU and IP.

TURN - here again, I could see just checking back to take a free card, or betting big with a lot of equity, on a card that really smashes our range more than V's, and downgrades all the hands he may have had on the flop.

We could go a little over 2/3 pot, $65. That will leave $150 behind, and make the pot $221, setting up a 2/3 pot river jam. Even if we don't hit our draw or make a pair, we can still rep KX.

In game, I would rely heavily on my reads of V and my perceived table image before deciding which line I would take. If he's sticky and I look bluffy, I'd take the lower variance line of checking back turn. If he's tighter, and I think my image is solid enough that he'll fold all his 9x and most of his Tx, I'd go for it, and bet big, with a plan to empty the clip on the river.

Interesting hand. Thanks for posting it.

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