I agree that winning the pot on the flop is great result. The problem is, what if we don't win it? We bet $55 into the $75 pot and get one caller. Now the pot is $185 and we've got $120 left. I sure hope one pair is best, cuz we're shipping any turn.

The first guy or so who called the raise, especially not knowing if people behind them are going to tag along, yes, are probably making a mistake. But the last couple of callers can easily call here with a wide range of speculative hands. I mean, the 3rd, 4th, etc. callers can easily setmine here getting immediate odds of 3+:1, plus decent implied odds in a multiway pot plus position.

I'm not worried about just draws and obviously I'd love to get my money in against them. What I'm worried about is that the only hands giving me action on this flop are typically hands that crush me or at the very worst hands that have a decent draw (and will beat me 1/3 of the time); total these up, and we're not looking so good against hands that call our flop bet.

I'm not exactly sure what you mean by this.

Look, if we got this HU with the same SPR, then we're laughing and obviously I'd be doing this every day of the week. But instead we've got a low SPR but are in an eleventeen way pot; not quite as good a time to be had, IMO.

gobb,
ike is one of the better mid stakes posters I would take what he says not as gospel but with some weight.

when you raise that big preflop you are really cutting down on implied odds no matter who calls it is still alot with 100BB stacks you are not getting implied odds to call with small PP or SC assuming 100bb stacks, yes villains call but we just got them to make a mistake.

you are operating under the assumption that as soon as we commit chips on the turn with this type of hand we have to pay off/commit always OTR

the beauty of live is you can sometimes take a line like c/f this river even though we have committed like 30% of our stack because villains behave so predictably on the river.

bet this turn c/f this river

Just for reference gobbs, villain needs ~10-1 implied odds, minimum, with a pair. Since we're raising AQ here it's a bit larger. Suited connectors need somewhere between 25 and 35 (reverse implied odds are a bitch).

Villains simply aren't good enough to not call with one pair hands, and it's quite easy to slow down on QJT or QT9 flops.

I find it hard to believe that the 4th+ callers are making much of a mistake here (especially with pocket pairs), and nor are the early callers *if* they know this is going to be an eleventeen way pot (and with this raise size vs the amount of limpers, there's a pretty decent chance that's exactly what's going to happen).

I'm more talking about the time where we flop TP, in which case, all the chips will be going in by the turn.

in order for them to be getting the correct odds they would have to win over 250 every time they flop a set. if we are raising a hand like AQ we are going to miss the flop ALOT and they are not going to win that every time, not to mention getting over setted every once in a great while.

I am not sure why you think we have to commit if we flop top pair regardless of flop action/villains tendencies there are too many variables to say if that is a good idea.

In a HU situation, sure (for pocket pairs I believe HOC even recommends closer to 20:1).

But this is going to be a 5+ way pot; our preflop raise size pretty much guaranteed that. Which means that everyone is getting great immediate odds of 4+:1, and although stack sizes of villain ain't mentioned, I'm guessing at the very least they have an extra implied odds of ~12:1 vs Hero. Plus it'll be a multiway pot, virtually guaranteeing that if anyone does hit their bingo that they'll be extremely likely to be paid off by one (if not more) people (unlike HU).

I'm not opposed to raising preflop, but if we do I think we have to raise a lot more with one of the main goals being to thin down the field. Say we raise to $25 and get two callers; these callers are now making a much larger mistake (worse immediate odds, worse implied odds, much less likely to get paid off if they do hit bingo due to it not being as multiway, etc.), plus we also get the benefit of having the exact same SPR except vs fewer players (who have paid thru the nose, so much so that we shouldn't have any problem stacking off when we flop TP).

GmytwocentsG