Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 466
If I am understanding correctly, your range for V is 33-JJ, ATs+, and I'm assuming AKo. I'm also assuming a $.25SB and $.50BB.
Since you are all regs, do you know what V will do if you shove? If V will call with all of his range, you will only have 46.7% equity and should fold.
But lets say when you shove, V will fold 33-77 and ATs-AJs. That means he's folding 36/75 combos where you win $5.25. When he calls the remaining 39/75 combos, you have an average ev of -$2.70. Totaling it up the play has an average ev of +$1.12.
Of course this is just an very rough estimation. Sometimes a player will wake up with a better hand behind you. Sometimes your read is wrong and V does has AA-QQ in his range. Then again, sometimes V may call with ATs or AJs which would increase the play's ev.
Another thing to consider is meta-game reasons. I think that in such a small buy-in game with all regulars, shoving is good for the game and good for your image. If I thought the play was close to neutral ev, I would happily shove for that reason alone. (I am assuming you can easily rebuy)
In this hand, I would not call, especially when I thought players were going to call behind. Most of the time you will miss the flop and be forced to c/f after putting 25% of you stack in preflop.