Villain is young kid who has had ear buds in the whole time. Has been silent keeping to himself, has had his laptop pulled up seemingly doing work. Seems grindy also tight
Blinds $1/2
Two limpets
Hero opens AQs to $17.50
Villiain calls in LP
Heads up to the flop
Flop: AJ9
Hero bets 15
Villain calls
Turn: 9
Hero checks (my thinking here is my range would slow down on this turn; does this seem right?)
Villain checks
River: A
Hero bets 50 (I think this is a bad sizing but would love help with this as I don't really know what kind of sizing to use here)
Villain thinks for 20 seconds then moves all in for ~$200 more
I will post results later as to not influence analysis but really wondering what to do here. Seems I chop with a lot of Ax hands Villain will have but also I lose to AJ, A9. I really feel like I can't fold in this spot but at the same time I don't really know what bluffs Villain will have., especially at these stakes Because of that it seems like I am just calling to chop??
This was a really confusing hand and would love to hear everyone's opinions + comments after I post results after some discussion
I would probably bet Turn here. It's 1/2, you can often get 3 streets of value from Ax, and 9s only make up a small part of his range.
I think it was Ed Miller who said something along the lines of "If someone has a monster, you usually here about it by the turn".
I think there's a good chance that A9, and especially AJ, might bet the turn.
River Raises are usually monsters, but he may think any Ace here is a monster. Regardless I'm not good enough to fold this. Call. I don't expect to be good much more than 40% of the time, but that's enough.
How do you figure you lose to A9? You lose to AJ and 99. And if he started with 350, 20,15,50 adds up to 85. Pot of 170. His jam is for 265 more. Which is not exactly approximately 200. You have to be good 38% of the time. Say you are chopping 60%. If he is good 4/5 or more of the rest of the times compared to his bluffs you have the odds to call. Its probably close either way, but Im not a fan of putting in $265 to win $85 60% of the time and lose it all 32% and scoop $435 8% of the time.
His line makes no sense to have 99, AJ or anything but something like a suited ace or air. But also if hes a grinder and you just put in $85, he knows you likely have an ace, and how many small stakes players are folding an ace so why jam without AJ or 99? Interesting hand.
You only lose to AJ and quad 99. AJ probably bets turn. You’re chopping like 90% of the time here and losing less than 10%…he probably never has bluffs with this line. Still folding would be horrible.
