Quote:
Originally Posted by wiffle
shove or fold pre
OP:
One good way to look at these sorts of problems is find a break even range that he needs to be opening and calling for our shove to be profitable. Then you can adjust it based on your experience and the villain at hand.
The pot is a little bit small here, and your stack it a little bit big in relative terms, but still good practice anyway.
If UTG is opening 88+, and AJ+ he's opening 105 combos.
If he folds out 88/99, AJ and AQo, he's folding 43 combos and calling with 62 combos.
43/105 * $185 + 62/105 * (31.5% * $310) = $75.76 + $57.66 = $133.42.
Shoving will not be profitable here. But it's close.
If we think that he will fold TT to our shove:
55/105 * $185 + 50/105 * (29.5% * $310) = $96.90 + $43.54 = $140.44
So play around with the assumptions and then adjust based on your experience. If you think that he isn't opening with 88/99 here how does that affect your equity?