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AQo in mp AQo in mp

12-01-2015 , 05:35 PM
I left after this hand because I thought I was playing bad. But you guys often bring up nuances that escape me.

I'm dealt AQo in middle position. UTG raises to $15. UTG in this hand was the villain in my prior post of 5 minutes ago. 2 callers to me. I call? Two more callers behind. 6 to the flop.

Flop: AK4 (pot $93)

Checked to me. I push for $124. Guy on me left calls - he's been at the table 5 minutes. Everyone else folds.

Turn: AK4 2 (pot $346)

River: AK4 2 8 (pot $346)

He turns over 36

I think a pf 3! was in order but I couldn't pull the trigger - I was scared UTG might have AK so I decided to only call. MUBSY in retrospect and a 3! would have cleared out junk that might beat me. How many times do I need to learn this lesson before I act on it consistently? <--- rhetorical.

I actually like the call OTF from anyone who only holds a FD. I priced FD's out so his call cost him in the long run. But it also makes sense because anyone who will call a pfr with 63s is probably going to go with it no matter what if he flops a FD.

Am I on the mark with analysis? What else should I be thinking about?
AQo in mp Quote
12-01-2015 , 07:10 PM
Pre 3b is OK if you know UTG is wide.

Tbh, I think you played it fine.
AQo in mp Quote
12-01-2015 , 07:32 PM
You played the hand perfectly and got the money in good. A pre-flop 3! can be considered if you know more about UTG, but UTG opens are usually tight. I think pre-flop is closer to a fold than a raise. On the flop after UTG checks it's very likely you have the best hand.

The error here is your thinking. Folding out junk that might beat us is one of the last reasons we raise. Raising is to gain information by defining ranges, get worse hands to call, get better hands to fold, keep our range uncapped, and yes, sometimes to protect our equity.

Both of villain's calls with 63s were pretty terrible and made you money.
AQo in mp Quote
12-02-2015 , 04:41 AM
Nothing wrong with this hand. You are beating yourself up after losing two hands in quick succession. Take a break or play 1/2 for a few sessions. You'll soon feel more positive about your game again.
AQo in mp Quote
12-02-2015 , 06:16 AM
Depends on V, against most fold pre. Against some 3-bet. I don't know if I'd ever flat.
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12-02-2015 , 02:25 PM
shove or fold pre
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12-02-2015 , 02:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wiffle
shove or fold pre
OP:

One good way to look at these sorts of problems is find a break even range that he needs to be opening and calling for our shove to be profitable. Then you can adjust it based on your experience and the villain at hand.
The pot is a little bit small here, and your stack it a little bit big in relative terms, but still good practice anyway.

If UTG is opening 88+, and AJ+ he's opening 105 combos.
If he folds out 88/99, AJ and AQo, he's folding 43 combos and calling with 62 combos.

43/105 * $185 + 62/105 * (31.5% * $310) = $75.76 + $57.66 = $133.42.

Shoving will not be profitable here. But it's close.

If we think that he will fold TT to our shove:
55/105 * $185 + 50/105 * (29.5% * $310) = $96.90 + $43.54 = $140.44

So play around with the assumptions and then adjust based on your experience. If you think that he isn't opening with 88/99 here how does that affect your equity?
AQo in mp Quote
12-02-2015 , 03:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch
OP:

One good way to look at these sorts of problems is find a break even range that he needs to be opening and calling for our shove to be profitable. Then you can adjust it based on your experience and the villain at hand.
The pot is a little bit small here, and your stack it a little bit big in relative terms, but still good practice anyway.

If UTG is opening 88+, and AJ+ he's opening 105 combos.
If he folds out 88/99, AJ and AQo, he's folding 43 combos and calling with 62 combos.

43/105 * $185 + 62/105 * (31.5% * $310) = $75.76 + $57.66 = $133.42.

Shoving will not be profitable here. But it's close.

If we think that he will fold TT to our shove:
55/105 * $185 + 50/105 * (29.5% * $310) = $96.90 + $43.54 = $140.44

So play around with the assumptions and then adjust based on your experience. If you think that he isn't opening with 88/99 here how does that affect your equity?
Also need to keep in mind that someone behind you will wake up with a hand a nonzero percentage of time, and the other two people in the pot may also not be willing to fold. I dunno anything about villain, but I would fold AQ here readless.
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