1/3 Eight-handed, loose passive table, lots of stations, very little aggression.

EP ($300) raises more than most, but very little 3betting, calls pre very wide, calls with any piece post
MP ($300) very tight passive, basically never 3bets, only bets/raises with nutty hands, calls pre w/ pairs and big cards
BB ($200) passive, raises second most to EP, will bluff, calling station
H UTG ($800) tight aggressive, raises more than anyone, hitting well tonight

AQhh UTG

$15 (standard size, and I’m always raising here, but open to debate) EP calls, MP calls, BB calls

Flop (~$55) KhJc6h

Hero: $45 (no question I’m betting, but how much?)

EP folds, MP calls, BB folds

MP is very tight/passive, but I think he’d raise w/ a set (he would call pre w/ 66), so I put him on a K (AK, KQ, KJ, KT) or a J (AJ, KJ, QJ, JT). The lower of those are slightly discounted but possible. He could actually have AA. (In a hand a few weeks ago, I 3bet another player w/ KK to $45, and this guy limp/flatted. Flop came AKX and he shoved ~$175. I seriously almost folded and wish I had – I actually tanked because I don’t think this guy shoves AK there. A new player at the table said if I had folded he would have thought the game was rigged.)

Turn ($145): KhJc6h Ks

Hero?

So far, well played. I would have bet a smidge smaller on the flop, $35, or $40. As to the turn, check mostly for pot control. Most of the range you assigned to MP (which seems like a good range) still has a draw. Also, I don't see how you can get three streets of value here.

This is also a spot where I want to see what MP does. Personally, my best reads come facing a bet post-flop, or on the river checked through.

I limp in to evaluate (sometimes reraising if I think the conditions are right), but that's me.

I probably cbet no more than a 1/2 PSB as I don't think the sizing (so long as considered "reasonable") makes any difference on whether we're getting called.

I mostly done with things UI against this guy on this turn card. He'll likely check back his Jx anyways so at least we'll get a free chance to outbink him in those cases, and if he's on a draw he'll check it down to our showdown win.

GcluesslessNLnoobG

I would probably size smaller OTF. I’m less likely to get raised off my equity (if raised can call a smaller size with more IO) and if people call small we are setting a good price for our big draw. A small bet is also likely sufficient to fold out hands like 99, etc. 4-way it is very likely someone is holding Kx and will obv continue but may not raise given we still have range and nuts advantage.

Turn is a good card for our range but the worst card for our actual hand. V as described has a ton of kings in his flop calling range. He could even have a boat. The latter is less likely so I don’t want to b/f yet. I would c/c turn. He is tight passive so if we whiff river I am c/f. If we bink river I am b/f.

check turn, v seems pretty straightforward so calling any bet < 1/2 pot

I'm assuming that the MP is part of your usual crew at the table.

The real questions is whether he would call a turn bet with second pair. If not, I'd fire another bullet. Doesn't have to be big, maybe half pot. If he would, then check. The problem with checking is that it screams you don't have a king or you have a unlikely FH.

He is usually a dealer but sometimes plays. Buys in short. He is the type to pass on double-board bomb pots for $10.

He will not call a turn bet w/ second pair, especially against me (almost guaranteed).

Bet 20 otf for a million reasons. 25 if you just can't imagine betting 20. 45 is horrendous, but you'll just scoff at that I think. AP of course check turn, and fold to a turn bet always on the stone worse turn, against the stone worst player on this card, with the stone worse hand you want to have against this player on this turn. I prob lose $25 on this hand, $10 pre $15 flop, fold turn if only he called <- this is how you crush the game.

I'm fine with either betting or checking flop, but this is way too big of a size. I'm just checking turn now, this is a horrible card.

Re: flop sizing, are you concerned about using very different sizes for your bluffs and value hands? If I had to guess if you had AA/2p/sets here you would probably probably pot the flop to set up a PSB shove on the turn. I wonder if the people you play with all the time are picking up on that?

No one ever folds a draw on the flop to one bet (or at the very least, one that is within reason = not much more than a ~PSB). So with that in mind, I don't feel too concerned about turning my nuttish hands face up (especially when committed). Will I lose some weaker hands in those spots? Probably, although it is possible I would lose them anyways. I'm also hoping that when not feeling committed (such as would here with everything ranging from an overpair to the draw we have) that my smaller bet will help confuse their overall read.

GcluelessNLnoobG

As passive as V sounds, can we set the price for our draw with a blocking bet? Vs V waking up and deciding to go 3/4 pot-pot.

Assuming V doesn't have KJ here, which might be a big assumption, admittedly. It would be a shame to fold our 12 out draw here.

I don't think I quite explained the Vs well enough. EP and BB are complete stations. They will call w/ any piece, and I actually want to build a pot here, because they are going to keep calling w/ worse if I hit. I guess I could have bet $20 to induce, and maybe that's one of your million reasons? It's the only one I can think of. However, they rarely raise here.

I do think $45 was a little high and $30 - $35 would have been better. I like $45 better than $20, but everyone on this forum knows I rarely bet less than half pot.

One of the reasons yea, and 30 is fine, you just cant bet 45 when you think about your overall better range either. I get the spots are there before you chose 45, but the idea is to make it impossible for them to fold. Also, you have a hand that can easily contend with a raise if someone elects to laughably do that on KJx vs your line -- betting 20 might get more calls AND more raises and bc you have both the NFD and the 2NFD, the size-down is going to capture more available hands that become HORRIBLE calls for 20 rather than good folds for 45.

OK, but I am positive if they are calling $20, they are calling $45 And, they are more likely to raise $20 than to raise $45, but you are right that I don't mind a raise from them here.

I obv cannot be sure, but you'd have to think that 45 is going to muck their turn mines and backdoor trash. Again, your game might be just all laughable nits and laughable spots so you can prob just do anything you choose.

pre $20

flop fine $40-45

turn I'm betting 1/2 pot maybe little more

I wouldn’t underestimate the “losing some weaker hands” effect. Last week I played with a super nitty old guy. He raised from MP (alarm bells), got a couple of callers, and I just called (rather than my usual squeeze) closing the action with TT. Then I just check/folded a 7 high flop when he bombed it. You don’t need me to tell you what he had. Folding an overpair there is theoretically really bad and a totally unbalanced play but I was able to peg this guy as a super nit within a couple hours, so it makes me wonder if the regulars you play with are making similar folds vs you. Like in this case the guy won $25 off me (because I didn’t 3b against his 3% opening range and didn’t continue with an overpair) while against anyone else I would have lost a lot more. And he has no clue how much value his missed out on either. From his perspective he was probably just glad not to get his aces cracked.

Why $20 pre? Most people on 2+2 think $15 is too high in 1/3

However, this table is calling $20 if they are calling $15, but I don't want to push it too much, so I keep it at $15.

Oh, for sure, there are definitely pros and cons to every method. So if you're doing things one way (say laggy versus super nitty) then that's going to lead to doing other things another way (say bet/bet/betting versus trapping/underrepping/inducing, which your super nit likely would have been much better off doing with his image against opponents with half a clue).

GcluelesshalfacluenoobG

It's weird to me that people think this is such a bad turn card. It increases the likelihood that he has a jack rather than a king. It increases the likelihood that he has a Broadway gutshot rather than a king. It increases the likelihood that he has lower hearts rather than a king.

I guess if our plan was to represent exactly AA or AK and expect a fold from a worse king, OK, probably out the window (he beats AA and probably won't believe we have AK). But that plan should be updated since it's less likely he has a king.

It's as though all y'all decided on the flop, "He probably has a lot of kings," and don't revise that on the turn. You are considering hand combos in your ranging, right?


(I do think check/calling a reasonable bet is probably OK on the turn though.)

I agree with NH,gg and AKQJ10 about the turn. It was less likely he had a K, and I wanted to set my price. If he raised, I was snap folding.

AQhh UTG

$15 (standard size, and I’m always raising here, but open to debate) EP calls, MP calls, BB calls

Flop (~$55) KhJc6h

Hero: $45 (no question I’m betting, but how much?)

EP folds, MP calls, BB folds

Turn ($145): KhJc6h Ks

Hero bets $45, V calls (I didn't get much of a read from his call, but he did hesitate a little, i.e., it was more hesitant than snap.) I rarely bet this small, but I thought I could set my price, get him to come along, and it was a cheap bet/fold.

River ($235) KhJc6hKs 9h

Hero? I am betting, but how much? (Edit: does anybody check?)

Sure, but I think people overestimate this effect. For example, if we think that given the flop action he has a K 50% of the time, when the turn falls we should only revise that down to 40%. Not a huge difference.

After the turn is a K, we should revise our estimate of the probability he has a K from p(he has K) to:
p(he has K | turn K) = p(turn K | he has K)*p(he has K) / (p(turn K | he has K)*p(he has K) + p(turn K | he does not have K)*p(he does not have K))

I used these values
p(turn K | he has K) ~ 2/50
p(turn K | he does not have K) ~ 3/50
p(he has K) ~ 50% (or whatever number you want)
p(he does not have K) ~ 50% (or 100% - whatever you picked for p(he has K))

plug these in and we get p(he has K | turn K) = 40%, i.e., not that big of a difference from our initial guess of 50%

Agree with sdfsgf. Although the turn K reduces Kx Combos and the probability he has a K. The pre-turn probability was still quite a high proportion of a tight player’s continuing range. It also makes it more likely he folds worse FDs to a bet.

AP I agree with betting river for value. Our target is Kx, a worse flush and maybe QT. On this board with our line we have all nutted hands so he may not call a big bet with any. $125-150 seems right and folding to a raise which is only a boat IMO.

In general, I lean to bet/folding against ABC players when I have a hand that has little chance of improving (i.e. something like just TP). Bet/folding hands that have potential to make big hands is very meh, imo (although I do realize on this board it is possible we're drawing dead).

On the river we only have 80% of a PSB left. I don't see how we can do anything other than jam.

GcluelessNLnoobG