Villain is a Korean girl maybe late twenties or early thirties. Can't tell but either way she looks young being asian sometimes it's hard to tell. Maybe could pass as mid twenties as well. She sat at the table w her older Korean male friend. Could be her boyfriend.. Her boyfriend plays tag/lag but she plays really nitty. Seen her open $20 utg w AA. Seen her open to $13 a couple times but didn't see her hand. Basically my read is she's trynna play really tight and make big hands. She does limp a lot tho, but post flop she usually checks and calls w her marginal hands and draws. She bets strongly w her made hands and TP hands. pretty straightforward and somewhat solid besides her constant over limping w speculative and maybe even kinda trash hands. She built her $300 Bi to around 700 at one point by flipping quads w AA on AA3 (she opened utg to $20 and got 2 callers) but recently lost a few pots in a row and started raising $13-$15 3 hands out of 4. But right when I started to think she was tilting and opening light she shows JJ after she raises to $13 and everyone folds. "Ahhh jacks!" And opens. So now I'm like hmm ok maybe she picked up some hands...
9 handed $1/3 8am she came in fresh at around 6am w her bf and I was here since the night earlier.
Villain is EP utg3 and opens for $15 (220)
Btn Asian kid calls. Hero is in SB (covers) w AQdd and thinks about 3!ing but thinking about Her EP raise and the fact she has been semi tight pre from what I've seen, decides to just flat.
BB omc morning grinder reg calls.
Flop (60) AJ5 hero checks, Omc BB checks, villain checks, and asian Btn boy checks.
Turn (60) Qss hero bets $35, BB Omc calls, and villain raises to 100! Btn folds and I ask how much behind. She says $100 back. Hero???

If she's raised 3 outta the past 4 hands, I'm starting to become suspect of her raises (even though one of those raises was with JJ, but she advertised that one). With just $220 stacks and $30 of dead money, and her perhaps tilting off $500 recently, I'm ready to play for stacks with AQs methinks. I 3bet to $70 so that I have a PSB shove on any whiffed flop (where I can hopefully fold out pairs, otherwise I get to see the river to realize my flip equity against these hands).

As played 4way, I probably just bet out to play for stacks as I'm feeling pretty committed now.

I'd pot the turn to setup a turn shove. Even though her action is a little scary, we could still be ahead of a slowplayed AJ or QJ that got there or perhaps some draw. I think I'm shoving, although honestly with this action I'm not incredibly pumped about it, especially since she plays straightforward postflop.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Pre-flop, flatting is fine here with AQdd, as this is a decent hand to play a multi-way flop with.

This spot really sucks, plus you have made it even more difficult on yourself by not betting the flop. It seems unlikely she would have checked a strong hand on the flop given she was second last to act.

You could be chopping against AQ, or losing against QQ, however given your blocker its more likely villain has KT here....


As played, its really read dependent, on a positive note you have not invested too much into this hand, there is no shame in folding

I think I like 3 betting to 45-50 here better than flatting and I probably fold to a 4 bet shove. I am assuming she is only 4-bet shoving with hands that have us crushed (maybe with the exception of JJ) but I am not sure she jams jacks as you've described her.

Hand just seems much easier to play with initiative.

I'm not going to lose too much sleep about doubling someone when top2 is not good and they have less than 100BB (do you really think they're going to fold correctly opposite you here?) so I'm going with the hand AP.

I agree with GG's assessment, on pretty much every level. I think she's grown tired of playing tight and is opening wider and also ready to gamble. You have to remember that although it can be tempting to think that things are static, people are people and are very much subject to reacting to game conditions. Let's 3bet/call pre, we're never in that bad of shape pre and I hate to let a hand like AQdd be turned into a bad spot 4ways OOP when the flop is 4x4x5x, or KxQx8x and we don't really want to fold, but don't really know if we can call.

This would be a pretty thin fold after 3-betting to 50 here imo. Our equity against JJ+,AKs is about 33%, and we only need about 37% equity to call. We would have to know with almost 100% certainty that she never spazzes, or has things like TT and AQs/AJS, to make the lay down at these stack sizes after 3-betting.

I understand what you're saying about giving her the benefit of the doubt, I just think it's very tough to be that sure.

Grunching:

Ship it.

V's range (K10 not an issue IMO):

AA - 1 combo
QQ - 1 combo
JJ - 3 combo's
AQ - 4 combos's
AJ - 4 combo's
QJ - 6 combo's but need to discount.
FD's and combo draws - ? but not insubstantial.
AK (played weird) - ?

Your hand is under-repped. You are ~50% heavily discounting AK before the draws and the chop. There are some $ in the pot. I don't think we can discount JJ at all. It would help to know if the As is accounted for. V is committed with her whole range. Just GII.

If I understand correctly, you're advocating a call if she 4bet jams? I would. Would you lean toward playing AQo or AJs the same way against this Villain?

Man, her raise to $13 earlier with JJ is really tilting me on this one.

Her checking AK AQ AJ on the flop seems way out of character. If we didn't have AQ I would say this is QQ all day.

I'm leaning heavily on her having QJ and next likely hand is K10. Shovel.

Yes, I'm calling it off preflop. Really just comes down to whether we think she is beginning to lose patience / tilt / etc. and gambool it up, which it *looks* like she is beginning to do having raised this many recent hands.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Yeahhhh ugh I should have 3bet pre. At the time all my Instincts were saying 3bet and I went against them. Then on the flop I felt I should have led... Anyways I shipped it omc bb folds AJ and the V girl snaps me off w KTo!

muck it. her range is murdering you. the only hand that you beat is AK

she doesn't have KT, but she most likely has QQ or JJ.