Can someone calculate the odds on this event ? I lost 5 all ins in a row where I was favored by

84 %, 85% 80 %, 80% and 96 %. Each time it was against a single opponent if that matters.

Curious what the odds are of this happening.

And yes, I want to bitch about how unlucky I am.

Thx in advance !

15% but I could be wrong

0.00384%?

GsucksatmaththoG

That's what I got.

Yeah, that sucks, but 1% chances happen every 100 trials on average. When they get bunched together, it feel like reverse lottery luck. My worst streak that I was aware of was losing 10 straight all-ins of a set vs a straight draw on the flop. .02% chance......not nearly as bad as your .0038%. Throwing that 96% in really gave you some extra sting.

To put another way, about 20,000-1. Buy a lottery ticket.

I guess this makes you feel worse but you had a 43% chance to win all 5.

Confirmed. (BS in Math)

And in case you are wondering how to calculate, take each instance subtracted from 1 and multiply.

So 0.16 x 0.15 x 0.20 x 0.20 x 0.04

Fold pre

More about 25,000 to 1 in fact.

100% or OP wouldn't be posting.

But the pointless probability you actually want is better expressed as something like "what is the chance of losing 5 in a row when I have 85%, given I do 250 trials". Hint: It's much bigger than 0.00384%

It doesn't matter the number of trials, the theoretical probability remains the same.

I would agree, but then we'd both be wrong.

I used to deal baccarat way back in the day which is like a 49/51 odds game and there were always times when either player or banker came up over 15 times in a row, almost daily at one point or another.

The more hands you play the more likely is that it will happen at least once. Play enough hands and it is almost certain to happen at some point.

This. In the big universe of multiple sampling you are going to get wrecked a lot. Risk of ruin is tough. See the financial crisis, lots of firms underestimated the likelihood of a low likelihood joint outcome and they got obliterated (bail outs and fraud excepted). Look up "financial crisis copula modeling"

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I agree.

However, that's not what I said.
I said that the theoretical probability remains the same.
As in "the percentage that it happens for any given trial".
Not as "soon or later it will happen over enough trials".

Are you considering a trial the next 5 hands?

Well, if we want to evaluate the probability of something happening over "5 consecutive hands matching certain criteria" (in case of OP let's say it would be losing when being a favorite of >= 80%), then I would consider any 5 consecutive "criteria matching" hands a trial or a sample.

Do you agree with this premise?

You are limiting your sample to hands where you are "losing when being a favorite of >= 80%"?

The "theoretical probability" is if we sit down and play five hands with those percentage how likely is it that we lose all of them. What should be obvious is that this is not what happened. OP almost certainly plays a lot (so has a bunch of trials) and probably never even thinks about it, never mind posting, if he wins every hand even though the same "theoretical probability" to win them all is like 44% (so hero would be "lucky"). OP probably shrugs and forgets if he loses 1 or 2 of the five, depending on stacks etc. And then it's very likely that villain won, or even lost, a small pot or two with 55% in the middle but they were forgettable.
Then people remember specific parts of the outcomes, like you got AA vs. KK and lost so you remember "you had 80%" except you'd both have played it the same with KK vs. AA so really you had 50%.

Saying this is a 0.00384% chance is just bad.


Also are you in the greatest game in the world or the biggest luckbox ever where you can get all in 5 times vs. one player and have better than 85% of the pot cumulatively. Likely you are lucky, otherwise you'd be winning so much long term that you'd never post this beat.

Edit: And I've seen multiple threads with people playing online where they have $won massively higher than $allinev and think they aren't lucky because of a bunch of reasons. And I've played the game for long enough to see some things ... So I'm old and jaded and shrug and "stats." like this thread now, too.

Wouldn't you just multiply it by 250 for .0096%?

It's like being dealt pocket aces. Your probably of being dealt AA on any given hand is 221 to 1 or .45%, but the chances of being dealt chance of being dealt aces in a 2 hand sample doubles to .9%. In a 10 hand sample, you'd have a 4.5% chance of being dealt AA.

Yes, because that's what OP asked.

Yes, because that's what OP asked.

However, I agree with you that limiting himself to these specific 5 hands because he happened to lose them all is a case of selective memory.

Well first off, 1 in 221 is 0.45248868778280...%

But also, according to the above math if you get dealt 222 hands you'd have a "100.45...%" chance of being dealt AA.

The answer you're looking for really has nothing to do with probability. Unlikely things do happen, just not very often.

The others are trying to explain (I think) the difference between sitting down for the first time ever and getting "4/25thed" 5 straight times versus having it happen at one 5 hand interval over the course of all the hands you've played in your lifetime.