Live $1/$2 NL full ring

Table has been fairly active with lots of limps that will get raised and called. Standard open is $12-$20.

Villain ($400) - Solid winning player who's game I respect.

Hero ($400) - To direct left of villain. Have not played too many pots against him. He folds most SB and a few times I have won small pots with a flop bet when playing against him in position BvB.

Villain opens to $12 from early position. Hero calls with the AJ

Folds around

Pot = $27.

Flop: K8K

Villain checks. Hero checks.

Turn = J

Villain bets $12. Hero calls.

Pot = $51.

River 8.

Villain bets $45.

Hero ?

In hindsight I hate my flop check and my turn call. Neither defined my hand, and having position I didn't really need to worry about pot control. Taking into account that I have played the hand poorly until the river, needing $45 to win $96 can we ever call here? I thought by Villain's sizing on river that he had to be crushing us as all we beat are bluffs. In real time, my "logic" for calling ott was to induce a bet on the river.

I wouldn't think you're ahead of much here. I'd probably fold

probably folding to his undersized turn bet even though it feels wrong to do so, I mean being relatively readless about him other than he's "solid", your obviously going to see many more bluffs on the flop from virtually everyone that opens utg, than you will the turn

TBH, I think you're good here against a solid player more than you are against a non-solid player. I'd actually look this one up, his line reps very narrow or doesn't make a lot of sense (both really).

If you play with him often I'd call because if he mucks you obviously know he had nothing and if you lose you get to see what he had.

This is a -EV call AINEC.

I think in these spots we level ourselves into making bad calls.

just take a step back and think about the hand. We have a doubled paired and flush board and we effectively have a bluff catcher vs the preflop Early Position raiser on a K K 8 J 8 board...

What do we beat? AQ, TT???

that's about it. If we ran this scenario 100 times, how many do we win? 15? 20?

I would never have called the turn bet, I would have just let this one go. Only way I call this on turn is if I had the A Otherwise, I just surrender and let it go.

I'm a big fan of cutting my losses in super crappy situations. Seriously, we have a K K 8 J three to a flush board... We could be drawing 100% dead... Just let it go...

Imo, one of the biggest leaks we can have as thinking players is thinking ourselves into seriously -EV calls. That is the downside to having a head full of advanced poker theory... You start leveling yourself into Hero calls that are just super -EV...

I think villain shows up here with ace high oftenk enough to call.

Also, im pretty sure i just did exactly what dgi just outlined above. He posted that before i had a chance to read it. Damn you dgi!!!

This. And yeah even the turn is a fold without a redraw. Competent villain showing up with a hand we beat often enough OOP on a nasty board = keep dreaming.

how often does ace hi not bet this flop after opening from ep

Folding the turn is crazy. Not sure what I'm missing here. You're getting 3.25:1, you're pretty much at the top of your range, and villain has shown very little stregth postflop.

River is close. I'd just shrug and call.

You're getting 2.1:1 so you need to be good 32% of the time. Sure he'll show up with weirdly played kings here sometimes. But a lot of stuff missed like AhQx, AhTx, QTss, T9ss plus his line is really bluffy so he probably has a decent amount of pure bluffs too.

Since ive started playing a lot of LLSNL this year, small bet ott and big polarizing bet otr from a decent player has seemed to be an extremely strong hand trying to induce a call with a goofy line.

Fold on the river.

Why?

His range in EP would be pretty solid: AQs+ JJ+ If he had AQ I think he woulda c-bet heads up. Checking kind of says "Damn, this flop nailed me and I want my opponent to catch up" so he checks the flop. The small bet on the turn sort of confirms this and the 45$ bet on the river seals the deal. He has AK, KK, QQ, JJ, AA, MAYBE AQh, MAYBE KQ.

Conclusion: You are beat here most of the time.

I'm folding here prob had u beat. Should of bet flop with A hi.