Quote:
Originally Posted by Pug Walker
Solid player opens from MP to 10, I call OTB with KQs, sb and bb call too.
9 high flop with a FD, checks around.
Turn Q, checks to me who bets 21, sb folds, BB calls, then solid player raises it to 50.
Am I at best chopping here? Am I ever ahead?
The first question you can ask yourself is what hands are ahead of me here that make sense: none by a solid player.
With a flush draw on the flop, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, A9s, smaller sets and flush draws should all be betting for value. On the turn all the same hands should be betting for value before it gets to you. Otherwise, we've misclassified this player as a solid player. I guess I could see AQs with the flush draw, but this is really passive play by a "solid player" to hope that you will bet for him on the turn unless you've been super aggro.
If we had more information, like that you've been super aggro, and the villain can expect you to try to take this away at some point, you could maybe see a slowed played 99, AA, KK or QQ, but again, with the flush draw on the flop, this is poor play as there can be scare cards on the turn that kill his action.
Have you seen this "solid player" bluff at all in the session? If not, I am inclined to believe he has misplayed this hand and was bailed out by your bet on the turn, but he is probably beating one pair hands.
If you have seen him bluff before, this could be a fancy play on his part with JT or a flush draw to try to use the BB against you, thinking that if he can make you fold he can probably get a fold from the BB too. Again, not very "solid" play as the bluff is too small and if you call he has to play a large bet on the river oop and possibly against two hands.
I'm concluding a fold is better than a call is better than a raise here, but I would reconsider whether the MP player is a "solid" player based on this play, unless you have more information that you're not sharing here about reads. Nothing that beats you was played correctly by the villain, and yet if you're ahead of a draw here, it is a very poor bluff by your opponent. I guess he might think a combo draw like JTs could be ahead of everyone, and he is actually value betting and hoping to hit on the river. I still think a big draw needs to bet more on the turn and probably bet the flop too.
Frankly, I think that villain needs to post here for advice more than you do.