~2am at Morongo 1/3NL, my original table had broken and I was moved to a new table.

Hero's stack is ~$450, I cover everyone

4 limpers
Hero in SB raises to $15 with AK

UTG+2 (~$185) calls, everyone else folds

Pot = ~$35

My plan at this point is to c-bet any good flop to take it down & give up on turn if called and un-improved

Flop: J 7 J

Hero bets $20
Villain calls

Pot = ~$75

At this point, my plan is now c/f turn

Turn: K
Hero checks
Villain bets $20

I decided to check, because I didn't think worse would call me BUT this small bet was weird to me, and since he was unknown I thought he could be betting the 7 thinking he was good and putting me on AQ

Hero calls
Pot $115

River: 2

Hero checks
Villain bets $60
Hero: ???

Is a better line to lead about $35 to get value from 7x, and 88+ (knowing that they'll probably check back river), and then fold to any raise knowing it's trip Jacks?

During the heat of the moment, I pondered this line but got into my default weak/tight/passive mode.

Thanks in advance

Thats a good question I could see both lines being close in ev.

I think I like the value line. You are definitely getting calls from kings with x clubs that you beat... serves as a blocker bet also. As played, I call and expect to be good at least half the time. Your getting almost 3 to 1 on your money.

Also his 1/2 pot bet looks weak after you showed strength on other streets

Call,

there is a busted FD out there so you win a decent percentage of the time here.
You also beat Kx and 7X type hands.

Lastly, yes, I would lead out here on the river vs most opponents as a TPWK or mid pair will often check behind in this spot so you lose value.

Otherwise, c/c river isn't terrible.

It is time for ranges. The villain l/c pf, then called a bet on the flop and made a tiny bet on the turn and a 1/2 PSB on the river.

Certainly a busted Ax FD hand would do this. It could be a weak Jx hand. A really poorly played 77. However, that's about it. An underpair will want to check this down. QQ+ would have raised pf.

Of that range, nothing calls that you beat. Therefore, I'd open his range up to a bluff and c/c.

can a case be made for folding?

just curious

Nope pot odds are too good and there are many hands in his range you beat

I have to disagree.

regarding value bets in this spot...

Whenever there is a busted flush draw, villains are much more likely to call down light.

If you aren't value betting busted flush draws, you are missing out on some value.

That's true if they think you have the busted FD. And certainly the hand was played such that a busted flush draw is possible. I guess I was thinking putting him either on a monster or the FD, which then precludes us having one that matters. I'll admit thin value betting the river is not a strength of mine.

That said, part of what makes this hand harder to play is the failure to bet the turn. Yes, it turns our hand over, but we're getting to the point where the villain is going to play SF anyway, has us on AK anyway (if bad), and TPTK isn't a hand to slow play at the turn on a semi-wet board. If there is a FD, this is often the last time to get value from it.

After I c-bet the flop and he called, I got a little nervous because he looked like the type of player that would min-raise to "see where he's at" with a 7. So obv, I went into c/c weak/tight mode.

Do you think it would be better to lead 1/2 pot on turn, and then c/f on river if called?

well if u guys are so sure he has a flush draw then thats a way to be bluffed off of a bigger pot...

Im ok with the check on the turn. Also im sure your good when you call the river bc he could as said be doing that with any small pocket pair or any missed FD. im also ok with mabey check raising the turn based on the size of the bet. You were good right ?

Thanks everyone for all the feedback, it's awesome!

Venice, I really respect your posts, so thanks for chiming in to this one, too.

What is the plan for the hand if I bet turn. Do I fire a second bet at 1/2 pot then fold to a raise? Is river a c/f, c/c, or b/f on a brick?

Thanks, will post results soon.

if he's bad and straight forward he'll tip you off on his hand strength and raise turn/river.

i can see a case for checking back turn in the hope of picking off a bluff on the river by c/c'ing, but he is a bad player, you can easily just bet bet. it depends on how aggressive he is really. if he's the type to assume a check on the turn is showing weak/nervous about hand and bet everything then i'd take that line. if he's not that aggro, i feel like leading is the better play. as played im probably calling 60 on that river.

you gotta be real good at poker to show up with a J here. also how much attention have you paid to the player? is he tight and trappy? or a player who likes to try and trap? (then more likely he has a jack according to his line).

I like the c/c turn and would like a donk/fold on river.

I think the weakish bet on the turn could very well be a Jack hand that he plays like that because that's what plenty of fish do. Because of this, I am fine with the c/c on the turn, and I'd reevaluate on the river, planning to c/c depending on the size of the bet because a flush draw is in range. I'd also fold this river to some bets, depending on reads.

This is my second hand at the table so I don't have any reads. I sat down 6 hrs ago at this table before it got populated w/ regs then I switched. I did not peg villain as a reg but he was about the same in stacks 6 hrs later .

What would be the ABC way to play against an unkown?

From what I"m seeing here, my mistake was checking turn which kept his range open to bluffing river w/ busted FD which makes a call w/ 3-1 podds mandatory?.

Had I bet turn, I'm folding to a raise. Then b/f-ing river for 1/3 pot?


Thanks.

vs a non creative player i would simply bet turn HP, and check river hoping to induce some bluff. I would look at villains betsizing and demeanor etc before calling river bet though.

(and if you dont think you can trust yourself on that note, then bet river again just a bit more than the turn bet. These villains wont raise bluff you)

Results:

I c/c-ed river obv and villain turned over JTo.


As played, did I just run into the top of his range? <--serious question, since I"m still a noob here & to poker I want to make sure I played right and am not just posting a BVB.

Either b/f or c/c is fine. Without reads, I would check/call but no real strong preference. You just ran into a good hand; there's many more hands you can beat than have you beat range-wise to more than justify the call.

I'm just glad you didn't consider folding, and I don't think it was mentioned as an alternative. Seeing what some people post here makes me puke.

Can you expand on why folding is not an option?

After the hand (knowing I lost, of course) I was sure thinking about that option given I had just lost 100 bucks

c/f to a smallish riverbet is not an option. Villain can hold Kc Xc