Hero: $300. Recently sat down at the table.

Villain ($145): 40 year old woman. Judging from the way the table is talking, she's probably much worse than the average player. I've a reg and I've never seen her before. Since I sat down, she played two hands from EP and lost to big hands.


The hand.

Villain raises to $17 from UTG.
Hero 3-bets to $50 with AKs on the button
Villain calls.

With $100 in the pot and $95 behind, are you shoving all flops?

The actual flop:

742 with one of my suit.

yes shove.

as an aside, if you were in the big blind the best play is probably to shove pre, if she is really bad she will call wide. heck, maybe shoving the button is correct. the only reason to not shove the button imo is that you still have the sb and bb behind and i think you can fold to a cold 4b all-in.

Yes I'm shoving 100%

Flat call pre. Not jamming flop.

She called your 3B. She probably has an over pair to the board, and isn't going to fold to a jam.

Don't bluff the bad rec-fish.

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its wrong to assume villain has a pair. plenty of 40 yo women have broadway hands here or things like Axs. you can also get her to fold a chop. if you give a free card to a 6 outer, or the turn is a brick, she bets and you fold the best hand, its a huge punt.

It's not really a bluff. More of a merge and at these stacks not shoving is silly.

She can even call with worse. I can give you tons of examples from online hands I've played with similar fish where they call with AQ, KQ because they have so little left.

She opened UTG and called a 3B. Jamming this flop with AK seems like a spew.

Our hand has showdown value against worse unpaired over-cards that are going to fold. Our jam is only getting called by better hands, and probably not folding out any over-pairs that were strong enough to call a 3B pre.

Why can't we bet small, to keep her range wide? If we want to deny equity, she might fold out some hands that could catch up, if not on the flop, then when we barrel the turn.

Just seems to me that a small c-bet and turn barrel get more folds than a flop jam, which just looks bluffy. Wouldn't we c-bet small with AA to get value from all worse 1P?

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I'll assume 1/3 NL based on sizing?

At these stack sizes, we want to see all 5 cards / can't afford to put in 1/3rd of our stack and not. So I'm fine with preflop and also shove the flop. We're ahead a decent amount of the time and otherwise typical worse case scenario is we give ourselves 2:1 to chase our 3:1 (not horrific for worst case scenario). Also checking to give free card / fold UI on turn having put in 1/3rd of stacks seems meh.

ETA: Also, our read is that she is an unknown that is probably much worse than the average player. There are players in my pool where preflop is actually a trivial fold (for realz), but I think against this described villain we should be ahead a lot on the flop (and even expect calls from worse due to lol remaining $).

GcluessaggrotardnoobG

Yes, you put immense pressure on any hand she has that's marginal. She probably calls with a lot of lower pairs and you've still got outs. Sad to hear she was losing so quickly. It sucks that so few women play.

It was $1/2. She had tens and called.

People seem unpredictable in these spots. I've seen people fold jacks face up in similar spots. I've seen people call with K-high. The rest of the table was sure I had AA.

Oh, then it's possible I could do a 180 here. Not that they are completely scalable, but preflop is kinda like a $25 raise (hugenormous) with $220 stacks (not lol small and happy to get in with ~ATC) in 1/3 NL. Obviously depends very much on how bad (is she stacking off with a pair on a A/K high flop postflop?) and in which ways she is bad (is she an aggrotard preflop with QTs?), but there's actually an argument for a preflop fold against some to this sizing / stacks (especially if she is just "face up" bad).

But one of the reasons I don't post in 1/2 NL threads is that I have no idea what its sizing / stack thresholds / etc. are.

Gasyouwere,imoG

Ageee with the above and wanted to emphasize this point:
Effective Stack size really is the inflection point in my head between GII on flop or attempting a multi street strategy.

If villain had closer to or > 100 BBs I’d be more inclined towards street play.

I just call pre at some frequency

I fold pre but that's just me.

RIO

Im raising bigger pre, yes im shoving every flop (based on reads, which V is almost certainly giving off)

Why would you flat call on the button with a premium?

Cbet small and shove the flop might be better. If she checkraises the flop, you have odds to gii. With the bdfd, you are about 30% against TT. Whether you shove the flop or turn, you mostly fold out what you are ahead of and get called when behind, but there is no better approach.

If you were deep, you could cbet and then decide whether to barrel if you miss the turn, but here you have to gii.

I would actually flat call pre against an 8.5xBB raise from UTG from a woman.

Because it's low stakes, she's a bad rec-fish, she's short stacked, she raised UTG, and is probably not folding any pocket pairs on the flop.

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Against all but the nittiest players, I’m 3betting AKs on the button vs UTG. Given the effective stacks, I’m shoving all flops except combos of QJT.

it's hilarious how results-oriented this forum is.

Because by lowering the SPR to below 1 I am removing my skill edge and making it a coinflip with me at a small disadvantage at best and horribly dominated at worse. I am basing my play on being told she is bad and her initial bet sizing; we are not a favorite vs ANY pair and her raise size and description scream mid size pair or better.

People need to realize AK is not really all that "premium" a hand when we're playing low-stakes against short-stacked opponents. It's basically just the nut bluffing hand pre. But it's still a bluff. It's not a pair, and it's only going to make a pair on the flop about 40% of the time.

If we were up against a decent player, with a deeper stack, maybe they'll fold some pocket pairs to a 3B pre or a jam on the flop. But when V opens for a raise that's >10% of starting stack, and then calls a 3B for >1/3 starting stack, V folding to a flop jam becomes extremely unlikely.

Most bad players are not folding 99+ pre, and not folding TT+ on the flop if there isn't an over-card to their pair on board. And even then, a lot of bad players are just going with top pair or an over-pair when they're on a short stack. A lot of bad players are just going to go with a decent 2nd pair.

We don't HAVE to raise with AK every time we're dealt it. We can flat call and play pot control until we actually make a hand with it.

I wouldn't assume anything strictly based on an opponent's age or gender. I'd use demographics in my read, sure, but they're just a factor to consider.

I'm mostly going off the pre-flop action, stack size, and OP's description of here as a bad player. Bad players don't typically feel confident enough to call 3B's from OOP without some sort of hand they think is strong enough. That's generally going to be TT+ and decent AX combos.

If she has AK, I wouldn't necessarily count on her folding it to a flop jam, though that is possible. The problem is that we have removal to AK, so her range is more weighted towards hands we're beating, like KQ and worse, or pocket pairs.

If we flat call pre, we keep the pot smaller. She may bet smaller on the flop, allowing us to call and see a turn. If she barrels turn, it's doubtful AK is the best hand, so folding at that point would be prudent, not a punt.