1/2

V (190) is the same a weak pimply loose passive with greasy hair from an earlier post. He looks fifteen but is probably twenty-five. He seems stuck in adolescence: his poor hygiene reflects poor self-control and absent self-reflection. After the table was talking about a game with 72o bonus, he limp-called preflop and got called on a massive river bluff with air, showing 82o.

Hero covers V and has a tight image, but V likely pays no attention.

OTTH

Folds to V, who bets 58. Folds to hero in BB with AsKs. Hero jams.

Does anyone just call here? If you favor call, what's the plan for the flop? Most players in this game make massive preflop bets only with KK+, AKs. But I think this V might spazz on a wider range.

Seems legit. I'm never calling there btjmoc

So he raise first in for about 30% of his stack and 30bb? I don't even know what this means other than tilt. It's obviously a jam or fold situation, but if you sense he is doing this with JJ+/AK only it's basically playing blackjack to call. You really need some AQ and complete spazz to make it a profitable call since there's literally negative money in the pot that's not yours or his if you call.

So I ran it and vs. JJ+/AK/AQ/72o we are only 56% fav.

If you only run JJ+/AK we are a similar dog.

Unless you have a specific read it can't be terrible to fold especially since I can't image we have any fold equity with a shove except against spazz.

What is btjmoc?

Never just call. Both jamming and calling give very close to 50% pot odds. Jam or fold. At least jamming potentially has fold equity and you get to see 5 cards.

For this to be a profitable jam, he needs to have AQo in his range. One thing in favor of jamming is that it shows the table you're not only jamming KK+ here or in general preflop.. And it's not out of the question that he could have not only AQo, but other stuff like KQs or just random spazz hands.

If his range is AQo+ AQs+ and JJ+ and he is not folding. You said before rake is $6 cap excluding the promotions, and I'll assume the promotions are break even. Jamming into this range our EV is about $7. If his range is JJ+ and AK, our EV is about -$30. Now assume he has some worse hands and we have some fold equity, maybe our EV goes into the positive $15-25 range.

If I had to probability weight his possible ranges, I think jamming is probably -EV. But I think jamming will be good for your image and good for the table. Strictly in dollar terms, I think folding is the correct play. But I don't mind jamming.

In the moment I would probably jam because of the possibility he can have AQo or worse and because my plan is generally to have a line in the sand where I don't always have the nuts or second nuts when I jam. AKs is generally across that line where any time I am putting in that extra raise AKs will typically be in my range. It's a good idea to have a game plan like that figured out before you play since we don't have infinite time to think about our options.

But now having thought about this particular pot with an infinite amount of time, I think I would fold. Because while there is a chance jamming is +EV, I think odds are it is not +EV. I am not in the business of taking bets when given almost 1:1 odds in a spot where it makes 0 sense for villain to bluff $58 to win $3. A bluff like that would have to work 95% of the time with any two cards (before equity and implied odds). It's not like bluffing the river for a reasonable dollar amount with air. If he is actually bluffing for this size, it will become apparent after he repeatedly does this or shows cards and we can adjust our strategy accordingly. We just don't need be stubborn and make -EV plays and pay people off who just have it. We don't owe it him.

This is a really good post. Like you, I would go back and forth on jamming or folding and would ultimately settle on a few things. If I played here a lot, I would jam. I want that image in everyone else’s head that when I jam its not always AA or KK. That Im a little looser than the average tight winning player. If I barely ever played there or I felt like the villain was going to lose it to someone in the next two orbits and likely to someone else if I take the 50/50 or 55/45 shot and lose the hand, then Id fold. I think in general when guys make bets like this its not AQ. I think its more weighted towards 88-JJ or AK. With a little AA, KK and random other hands sprinkled in. Which is a range we are more or less flipping with. If the guy looks like hes settled in, talkative, lively an ready to gamble for the next three hours, Im also more likely to jam. A guy who barely talks or looks like he is emotionless as hes playing this $58 mega open, id just fold and not because of EV differences in the hand. This hand more than most posted on here is mostly about the meta game, and not the actual hand at play.

What position did he open with? The earlier the position, the more likely I would fold. In general, I would fold. I don't see how you can do better than pushing by calling with this hand and a psb left.

This guy already bluffed away his stack with 82o; why would he open so big with a good hand? We have a lot of FE too if we jam. He prolly wants everyone to fold so he can table 72o.

i think this is like the clearest jam ever even more so vs this opponent. like the math is good but look at the opponent description, im also not sure you want to run equity calcs where you're giving him full combos of KK+ bc most people generally don't do this with nutted hands.

if its like omega nit i can understand at least considering fold here but dude who bluffed it off in a limped pot w 82o+ doesnt really seem like qq+,ak here to me.

i think its extremely unlikely actually vs this specific opponent that both of these are simultaneously true:
1) we never get it in good
2) he never folds preflop

even the villain description is literally: villain might spaz on a wider range

Results

V said, “do you want to flip them over?” I said, “sure.” V showed QQ, and his queens held up.

Later I told myself QQ+, AKo were in his range but so was 99+, AQs. During the hand, I thought, only a spazzing player puts that much in the pot, and you always want to get your money in with a premium against a bad player.

The nittiness of pros on 2+2 never ceases to surprise me. I never considered a fold here even over the days before posting the hand.

You were there. It's your job to put him on a range.

If you assign a range of 99+/AQ+ you can profitably call, barely.
If his range is QQ+/AK only you can't profitably call.
If his range is potato, it's a fist bump call.

That's pretty much what everyone says here.

It never ceases to amaze me how posters can ask then insult people who answer.

I admire your analysis that convinced you to fold here. I’m glad I’m just an amateur. My thinking was, V is here to gamble, not maximize equity. Let’s get our money in.

Sorry, no offense intended. I always appreciate better players telling me where I erred. All the posts in this thread are excellent. How pros play still never stops surprising me.

yeah idk man. mlark's post is really good and he took alot of time to answer a fairly unimportant spot. i can't imagine posting hands here regularly looking for advice and insulting one of like the five posters that post on a consistent basis and expecting that to go well lol (do as i say not as i do in this regard lol), although its kind of hard to tell if you're doing that or not, text kind of sucks to decipher tone through

re the hand, the issue with trying to even range this guy, is there's no way he's doing this with full frequencies or anything close to it with anything. i refuse to believe everytime he gets dealt exactly QQ he decides to open to 29x. when that happens i think its usually a good idea to weight some amount of spazzing into their range because its just a totally random line and its really easy for him to slip air in there if he's only doing this like 5% of the time he has a good hand or something. imo when i jam im not really looking to play vs AQ+, 99+ although im certainly happy to flip vs almost any range and if someone opens to nearly 30x w a hand that dominates me when i have AKss he deserves it. but we're really looking for him to have a random t5ss bc he wants to win a hand or 62ss bc its his favorite hand, or 72o bc he wants to show the table he could have won the bounty game. imo a guy who limp / calls 82o in a previous hand to go for it (bc of table talk) has enough random spew in him that you're likely printing here.

a bit unfortunate results wise though bc maybe im mistaken when he shows up w QQ. it doesn't necessarily help range him but im actually pretty shocked to see this exact hand and makes me think maybe this is just a stronger range than previously thought. id still jam though despite having seen the results and mlark's post so maybe im just a fish.

So unless this guy is obviously on monkey tilt from a series of big losses, these gross preflop "whoopsie" type overbets are almost always AK+. I know he didnt angle and pretend it was an accidental overbet, but I've seen players do it on stream, seen it live, and even remember it online. They're hoping for a "no way will anyone believe I'd do this with a real hand" so that they get called lighter. With AKs at 100BB's I'm just gonna take the beat and get it in and not at all be surprised when they have exactly AA, because ya know maybe sometimes my read is wrong and they really are punting.

There's really nothing wrong with folding pre I don't think it's too nitty to find better less volatile spots, especially if the player is less experienced or just moved up in stakes or has a small br. If this was a normal 1/2 villain with a tighter range I could fold AK pre in a heart beat.

For the record, Mlark post is a classic in using deductive reasoning (fold) to revise an intuition (jam). If only we could all think so well. The title of this thread reveals my ignorance: I thought this hand was jam or call.

I don't think your shove is bad given you were still a coin flip when the money went in.

However, I don't think much of your "read" on the villain as you cite a limp call pre and a bluff on river as the reason you describe him as a fish. A 20xbb bet pre flop is not the same thing. Seems like you have a beef with this player as he has tagged you for a couple of big pots. You should recognize that you may not be assessing his play correctly or objectively because you don't like him/his play.

I would probably shove. The 30x BB open leaving a psb left looks like AK or JJ or similar not wanting to see a flop. If he was deeper AA/KK would be more likely, and probably it would be an easy fold. You strongly block AA/KK. The question is how much AQ or spaz with whatever he has versus how much AA/KK.

Did you lose to a mid pp?

Pot odds aren't applicable here. The guy will call an all-in. It's basically an invitation for an all in. It's do you want to call AKo against and unknown range for a large bet or not.

Don't pay off the idiots. Just fold and make fun of him for wasting a good hand. "thanks for saving me money". Get in his head.

I think fold or jam are roughly equal. I would never call here. You will just end up check folding to many boards to sometimes worse hands like if he had AQs or something.

If I folded I would never show or tell anyone obv. Just fold like I had 63o.

I would weight this very heavily as TT-QQ not just because you block AA/KK but a player like this would size smaller or limp especially with AA.

So I would think I'm mostly flipping with a jam. So if meta game and image considerations are helpful maybe it swings it but in any case if I did shove I would make sure that it didn't look like it was a pained decision for