Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
So why are you raising the flop to 60 if you want to play small hand, small pot?
One huge misconception that lots of low stakes players make is they assume they up against a FD whenever there are two cards of the same suit on the flop. If someone is calling with the top 25% of hands pf, only 10% of those hands will have the right FD. Therefore, the odds of there being a FD is only 6% per player. Even with 4 callers, you're up against a FD 23% of the time. At the same time, you'll be up against a set just about as often. The set is going nowhere and you're going to lose a lot of money if you push your TPTK. On the other hand, a flush is going to announce itself easily.
Next step is by raising to 60, the pot bloats to $128 and you have $135 left. If there's a call, you have less than a PSB left. You've created a big pot. You either have c/f going forward or commit your stack. You also haven't discouraged a FD. A lot of people (even on 2+2) have heard that you are 2:1 to hit your flush draw after the flop. They end up making the mistake that they think they are getting pot odds to call a bet on the flop getting 2:1. They ignore that they have to see 2 cards to get those odds and there's another round of betting.
Therefore in my mind a raise does little for you unless you commit at that point that you'll send your stack in on the turn, barring a scare card. If you want to try to keep the pot small until you have more information on what the others are doing, you want to call.
As played, a cold 3bet is a set almost all the time. If the villain is thinking, he knows you've virtually committed yourself. That's what he's hoping, so I'd fold.
Wow, great post didn't know about those exact flush draw%.